基于可持续发展目标的吉尔吉斯斯坦水环境承载力评价

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.06.10

Abstract

Abstract:

Kyrgyzstan is an important transportation hub for the countries along The Belt and Road Initiative in China, which is rich in mineral resources, has an underdeveloped economy, has frequent human activities, and has relatively weak ecological environmental protection, resulting in major water environmental problems. Drawing on the evaluation indicators of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, this study uses the entropy and the analytic hierarchy methods to determine the weights of the indicators, analyzes the change trend of the carrying capacity of the water environment in Kyrgyzstan from 2006 to 2020 using the principal component analysis method, and determines the main influencing factors affecting the carrying capacity of the water environment in Kyrgyzstan using the vector model method. The results show that the carrying capacity of the water environment in Kyrgyzstan from 2006 to 2020 shows an overall enhancement trend. The water environment and socio-economic subsystems promote the continuous increase in the carrying capacity of the water environment, while the water ecology and water resource subsystems limit the carrying capacity of the water environment. Population density, water shortage, water body area, and per capita share of renewable water resources are the main influencing factors limiting the water environment’s carrying capacity. Increasing the rate of urbanization, improving the efficiency of water use, reducing the discharge of wastewater, and increasing the rate of wastewater treatment are effective ways to improve the water environment’s carrying capacity in Kyrgyzstan.

Key words: water environmental carrying capacity, sustainable development goals, principal component analysis method, vector modulus method, Kyrgyzstan

WANG Weilu,LIU Tie,LUO Geping. An evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity in Kyrgyzstan based on sustainable development goals[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(6): 1801-1809.

Figures/Tables 7

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准则层	指标	指标性质	计算方法	指标含义	对应SDG目标
社会经济	人均GDP/美元	+	国内生产总值/总人口	经济发展状况	可持续经济增长(SDG8)
	人口密度/(人·km^-2)	-	总人口/总面积	人口聚集程度	可持续城市(SDG11)
	城镇化率/%	+	(城镇人口/总人口) ×100%	城镇化程度	可持续城市(SDG11)
	国家环境保护预算支出/百万索姆	+	统计数据	地区水环保工作投资力度	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
水资源	用水效率/（美元·m^-3）	+	总产值/(用水量-回流量)	用水效率	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	用水紧缺程度/%	-	总可再生淡水资源/(总水资源量+降水量-生态环境用水量)	用水压力	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	人均取水量总量/ (m³·人^-1·a^-1)	-	总取水总量/总人口	生产、生活取水水平综合指标	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
水环境	BOD排放量/t	-	观测数据	水体水质污染情况	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	氨氮排放量/t	-	观测数据	水体水质污染情况	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	肥料消费量/（kg·hm^-2）	-	统计数据	农业污染压力	消除饥饿(SDG2)
	废污水排放量/10⁸m³	-	观测数据	水体水质污染情况	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	污水处理率/%	+	（污水排放量/废水站收集的废水量）×100%	污水处理能力	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
水生态	森林覆盖比例/%	+	森林面积/国土面积	土地覆被与水源涵养	可持续陆地生态系统(SDG15)
	水体范围/km²	+	观测数据	水资源整体丰裕程度	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	可再生水资源人均占有量/（m³·人^-1）	+	当地可再生水资源总量/总人口	水资源丰缺及发展潜力	水和环境卫生(SDG6)

主成分	特征值	贡献率/%	累计贡献率/%
第一主成分	10.708	71.385	71.385
第二主成分	1.79	11.931	83.316
第三主成分	1.236	8.238	91.555
第四主成分	0.6	3.999	95.554

变量	主成分一	主成分二	主成分三
人均GDP	0.944	-0.018	0.02
人口密度	-0.971	0.188	-0.033
城镇化率	0.845	-0.432	0.126
国家环境保护预算支出	0.891	0.246	-0.151
用水效率	0.984	-0.106	0.064
用水紧缺程度	-0.868	0.354	0.302
人均取水量总量	0.969	-0.029	0.005
BOD排放量	0.768	0.147	0.173
氨氮排放量	-0.156	-0.843	0.313
肥料消费量	0.328	-0.05	-0.922
废污水排放量	0.769	0.526	0.217
污水处理率	0.796	0.554	0.197
森林覆盖比例	0.962	-0.17	0.155
水体范围	-0.946	-0.019	0.112
可再生水资源人均占有量	-0.97	0.148	-0.025

年份	F₁	F₂	F₃	综合得分	排序
2006	-1.07	-0.01	0.34	-0.81	14
2007	-0.96	-0.03	0.3	-0.73	13
2008	-0.67	0.09	0.13	-0.5	12
2009	0.17	1.1	0.54	0.33	11
2010	0.29	0.78	0.71	0.39	10
2011	0.36	1.22	0.26	0.46	9
2012	0.48	0.92	0.62	0.55	8
2013	0.6	0.63	0.85	0.63	7
2014	0.78	0.74	1	0.8	6
2015	1.59	0.42	-0.02	1.3	5
2016	1.73	0.5	0.03	1.42	4
2017	2.06	0.28	-0.06	1.64	3
2018	2.14	0.1	0.55	1.73	1
2019	2.13	0.04	0.65	1.73	1
2020	2.13	-0.08	0.66	1.71	2

指标	熵值法	AHP法	组合权重
人均GDP	0.07043	0.03176	0.04087
人口密度	0.09961	0.07968	0.14503
城镇化率	0.03522	0.20893	0.13445
国家环境保护预算支出	0.04980	0.03664	0.03335
用水效率	0.08041	0.04350	0.06392
用水紧缺程度	0.05065	0.15204	0.14072
人均取水量总量	0.03191	0.05694	0.03320
BOD排放量	0.05027	0.05508	0.05060
氨氮排放量	0.08962	0.01228	0.02012
肥料消费量	0.04036	0.03181	0.02346
废污水排放量	0.16922	0.02972	0.09188
污水处理率	0.12526	0.02598	0.05946
森林覆盖比例	0.01834	0.06028	0.02020
水体范围	0.06057	0.07222	0.07993
可再生水资源人均占有量	0.03333	0.10314	0.06282

An evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity in Kyrgyzstan based on sustainable development goals

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