额尔齐斯河库威站日尺度的降雨融雪径流模拟

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.10.07

Abstract

Abstract:

Due to geographical conditions, there are limited hydrometeorological stations and a lack of basic data in the Irtysh River Basin, and the snowmelt flood exerts a considerable effect on the flood season and water resources management in the basin. In this study, precipitation and temperature reanalysis products and AVHRR snow cover data were applied, the K-means clustering method was used to divide the characteristics of different runoff periods, the corresponding SRM+LSTM model in different periods was constructed, and the runoff data observed in the field in 2023 were used. Results showed that the reanalysis product CMFD can be well applied to the Irtysh River Basin according to precipitation and temperature. The relationship between snow cover and runoff was divided into different runoff periods, as follows: December 11th to April 10th of the following year was the snow retreat period, April 11th to August 10th was the snowmelt precipitation runoff period, and August 11th was the precipitation runoff period. The simulation effect of the SRM model was poor, and the Nash efficiency coefficient of most runoff was<0. The SRM+LSTM model could better simulate the runoff in different periods of the basin, the deterministic coefficient could reach>0.5, and the Nash efficiency coefficient NSE could also reach>0.5, which confirms that the SRM+LSTM model can be better applied to the area with high accuracy.

Key words: K-means clustering method, SRM model, LSTM model, runoff simulation, Irtysh River

ZHAO Wenlong, LYU Haishen, ZHU Yonghua, LIU Han, WU Zhuojun. Simulation of rainfall and snowmelt runoff on the daily scale of the Kuwei Station in the Irtysh River[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(10): 1685-1698.

Figures/Tables 16

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分带	高程范围/m	平均高程/m	面积占比累计/%	分带面积/km²
1	1017~1517	1267	2.4	59.86
2	1517~2017	1767	24.0	538.71
3	2017~2517	2267	60.0	897.84
4	2517~3017	2767	93.6	837.98
5	3017~3854	3436	100.0	159.62

时期	时间范围
积雪退水期	12月11日—次年4月10日
融雪降水产流期	4月11日—8月10日
降水产流期	8月11日—12月10日

时期	降雨径流系数	降雪径流系数
积雪退水期	0.1	0.8
融雪降水产流期	0.8	0.8
降水产流期	0.5	0.1

时期		年份	SRM		SRM+LSTM
时期		年份	R²	NSE	R²	NSE
积雪退水期	率定期	2007年	0.278	0.266	0.922	0.878
积雪退水期	率定期	2008年	0.815	<0	0.925	0.902
融雪降水产流期	验证期	2009年	0.689	<0	0.817	0.555
	率定期	2007年	0.160	<0	0.441	0.422
	率定期	2008年	0.496	<0	0.834	0.814
降水产流期	验证期	2009年	0.334	0.082	0.314	0.277
	率定期	2007年	0.073	<0	0.815	0.646
	率定期	2008年	0.186	<0	0.513	0.468
融雪降水产流期	验证期	2009年	0.420	<0	0.753	0.749
融雪降水产流期	验证期	2023年	0.494	0.060	0.834	0.628

Simulation of rainfall and snowmelt runoff on the daily scale of the Kuwei Station in the Irtysh River

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