树轮记录的吕梁山北段1923年以来3—4月平均最高气温变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.03.01

Abstract

Abstract:

With the established standard chronology of the tree-ring width of Larix principis-rupprechtii in the Guancen Mountain in the northern section of Lvliang Mountain as basis, Pearson correlation analysis concluded that the average maximum temperature from March to April was the main controlling climate factor for the radial growth of trees in the study area (R = 0.509, P < 0.05). First-order linear regression equation was used to simulate and construct the change process of the average maximum temperature in the Guancen Mountains from March to April in the past nearly a century. The reconstructed equation was then cross-checked by the elimination method of leave-one-out test to verify its stability and reliability. Analysis of the temperature changes of the reconstructed temperature series showed that two warm periods and three cold periods in the past nearly a century in the Guancen Mountain area; the warm periods were 1932-1945 and 1957-1970, and the cold periods were 1946-1956, 1971-1983, and 1993-2010. Periodic analysis of the reconstructed temperature series based on Morlet wavelet analysis revealed periodic distribution characteristics of 3~5 a, 10~13 a, 22~33 a, and 40~45 a. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and sunspot activity were the drivers of this periodic variation. Large-scale spatial correlation analysis indicated that the reconstructed temperature series had a good spatial representation of temperature changes in large-scale regions such as central and eastern Russia, northern Japan, and central and eastern China. These results have important reference value for forest management and agriculture and animal husbandry development in Guancen Mountain area.

Key words: Larix principis-rupprechtii, tree-ring width, mean maximum temperature reconstruction, Guancen Mountain

WANG Jiachuan, LI Shuheng, GUO Yili, HAN Yijie, MAO Zhonglei. Variation of mean maximum temperature from March to April since 1923 in the northern section of Lvliang Mountain recorded by tree rings[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(3): 337-348.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 47

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特征参数	统计值	特征参数	统计值
采样点海拔	2128~2539 m	序列间的平均相关系数 (R₁)	0.490
样本量(树/芯)	98/196	树木内的平均相关系数(R₂)	0.514
序列长度	1899—2020年	树木间的平均相关系数(R₃)	0.482
公共区间	1955—2020年	信噪比(SNR)	30.299
平均敏感度(MS)	0.213	样本总体解释量 (EPS)	0.936
标准差(SD)	0.302	一阶自相关系数(AC₁)	0.683
子样本信号强度SSS>0.75起始年(样芯数)	1923年(6)

暖期	年数/a	距平值/℃	冷期	年数/a	距平值/℃
1932—1945年	14	+0.249	1946—1956年	11	-0.169
1957—1970年	14	+0.589	1971—1983年	13	-0.437
			1993—2010年	18	-0.643

Variation of mean maximum temperature from March to April since 1923 in the northern section of Lvliang Mountain recorded by tree rings

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