气象干旱变化特征及其对粮食产量的影响——以甘肃武威市为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.02.32

Abstract

Abstract:

Drought is a serious concern in the worst disaster weather in Wuwei, Gansu Province. Using precipitation data from 1960 to 2019 and grain yield data from 1970 to 2019 in Wuwei City of Gansu Province, variation characteristics of meteorological drought and grain yield, and the relationship between drought and grain yield was analyzed by statistical method in Wuwei City. The results showed that (1) spatial variation of frequency of spring drought, early summer drought and midsummer drought was consistent. Drought occurred more frequently in the northern desert area than in the oasis plain area, and that were more common in the oasis plain area than in the southern mountain area. (2) the frequency of spring drought, early summer drought and midsummer drought was not consistent. The frequency of spring drought increased in Liangzhou and Minqin, but showed a decreasing trend in Gulang, Tianzhu and the whole city. Eearly summer drought did not change in Liangzhou and Gulang, but decreased in Minqin, Tianzhu and the whole city. Midsummer droughts showed no change in Liangzhou, but decreased in Minqin and Gulang, and increased in Tianzhu and the whole city. Frequency of a variety of drought showed an increasing trend with increasing of drought grade. Extreme drought frequency was the most, and light drought took second place on spring drought. Extreme drought frequency was the most, and heavy drought took second place on early summer drought. Medium drought frequency was the most, extreme drought took second place on midsummer drought. (3) the grain production (wheat, maize, and total food) increased significantly with year and age. The annual variation of meteorological production had no obvious regularity, and had a great volatility. The age change of meteorological production increased first, then decreased and then increased. The meteorological yield was basically negatively correlated with ages frequency of various drought. The correlation between meteorological yield and frequency of early summer drought was significant, but the correlations with other droughts were not significant. Meteorological yields were lower in age of more drought frequencies, but meteorological yields were higher in age of less drought frequencies. It indicated that drought was one of the important factors restricting the abundance of grain.

Key words: drought disaster, change characteristics, grain production, Wuwei City

DING Wenkui,LI Xingyu,YANG Xiaoling,MA Zhonghua,LI Yanying. Drought characteristics and effects on grain production in Wuwei, Gansu Province[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(2): 656-664.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 30

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年代	春旱/a								夏初旱/a						伏旱/a
年代	凉州		民勤		古浪		天祝	全市	凉州	民勤	古浪	天祝	全市	凉州	民勤	古浪	天祝	全市
1960		5		6		3	5	4.8	6	8	2	2	4.5	7	9	3	1	5
1970		2		7		3	2	3.5	6	6	2	2	4	9	7	5	4	6.3
1980		8		7		2	3	5	4	4	0	1	2.3	9	10	7	1	6.8
1990		4		7		1	2	3.5	4	5	2	1	3	5	8	4	1	4.5
2000		7		6		2	3	4.5	6	6	3	1	4	7	9	4	3	5.8
2010		5		9		1	2	4.3	6	6	1	1	3.5	9	8	4	5	6.5

地名	春旱		夏初旱		伏旱
地名	倾向率/[a·(10a)^-1]	趋势系数	倾向率/[a·(10a)^-1]	趋势系数	倾向率/[a·(10a)^-1]	趋势系数
凉州	0.314	0.275	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
民勤	0.343	0.586^***	-0.257	-0.362^*	-0.029	-0.051
古浪	-0.400	-0.837^***	0.000	0.000	-0.029	-0.039
天祝	-0.371	-0.594^***	-0.229	-0.828^***	0.486	0.516^***
全市	-0.029	-0.084	-0.121	-0.280	0.107	0.226

等级	春旱/a					夏初旱/a					伏旱/a
等级	凉州	民勤	古浪	天祝	全市	凉州	民勤	古浪	天祝	全市	凉州	民勤	古浪	天祝	全市
轻旱	7	18	2	1	7.0	4	11	2	1	4.5	11	15	6	3	8.8
中旱	8	2	2	6	4.5	10	5	0	3	4.5	13	13	6	6	9.5
重旱	11	4	5	7	6.8	9	7	2	3	5.3	9	9	10	1	7.3
特旱	5	18	3	3	7.3	9	12	6	1	7.0	13	14	5	5	9.3

	粮食产量			气象产量
	小麦	玉米	总粮食	小麦	玉米	总粮食
均值/(kg·hm^-2)	4333.08	6587.28	4603.8	3.75	1.92	-0.28
倾向率/[kg·hm^-2·(10a)^-1]	856.54	1723.1	1256.5	6.13	8.67	5.34
趋势系数	0.974^***	0.977^***	0.978^***	0.036	0.044	0.033

年代	粮食产量/(kg·hm^-2)			气象产量/(kg·hm^-2)
年代	小麦	玉米	总粮食	小麦	玉米	总粮食
1970	-1782.93	-3419.23	-2186.90	-23.58	-33.56	-19.34
1980	-669.18	-1523.98	-1298.00	29.06	2.45	21.76
1990	-105.33	36.62	-318.50	2.33	33.17	4.96
2000	868.66	2334.09	1349.35	-33.94	-13.99	-34.22
2010	1688.79	2572.48	2454.07	26.13	11.93	26.83

Drought characteristics and effects on grain production in Wuwei, Gansu Province

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	春旱		夏初旱		伏旱
	相关系数	关系式	相关系数	关系式	相关系数	关系式
小麦	-0.058	y=-1.74x+8.33	-0.894^***	y=-26.93x+74.64	0.072	y=1.49x-3.27
玉米	0.064	y=1.72x-3.74	-0.802^**	y=-21.52x+62.81	-0.621	y=-11.35x+51.16
总粮食	-0.162	y=-4.51x+12.40	-0.862^**	y=-23.96x+62.81	-0.023	y=-0.44x+2.29

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