›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 695-704.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2018.03.24

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Land Use Change in the Three-River Headwaters in Recent 40 Years

XU Qian1,2, LI Qi1,CHEN Dongdong1,LUO Caiyue1,ZHAO Xinquan1,3,ZHAO Liang1   

  1. (1. Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining 810008;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;3. Chendu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041)
  • Received:2017-07-26 Revised:2017-12-03 Online:2018-05-15 Published:2018-06-01

Abstract:

In this study, the Arcgis10.0 spatial statistical analysis and the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to analyze the spatial distribution, dynamic change and future trend of land use/cover change in the three-river headwaters based on the 1: 100000 land use dataset from 1980 to 2015. The purposes of the study were to solve the problems of degeneration of grasslands, soil erosion and environment deterioration in the study area. The results are as follows:(1) Land use change was significant during the whole research period. The main land use change was divided into three periods: a degeneration of grasslands occurred during the first 15-year period (1980-1955), the land use change was slow during the second 15-year one (1995-2000), and the degenerated grasslands were regenerated during the last 15-year one (2000-2015); (2) During the period from 1980 to 2015, the areas of grasslands with low and high coverage, waters and construction land were enlarged in a fluctuation way, the area of unused land (sandy land, saline land, swamp, etc.) was reduced significantly, the areas of grasslands with moderate coverage and woodlands were basically unchanged, and the total area of grasslands was enlarged by 13.45% and mainly from the reduction of unused land; (3) The land use change was mainly caused by the conversion among grasslands, unused land and waters; (4)The CA- Markov model was used to predict that the total area of waters would be unchanged, the areas of grasslands with high and low coverage, unused land, cultivated land and construction land would be continuously enlarged, but the area of woodland would be reduced; (5)The change of population, economic structure and policy were the main reasons affecting land use change, and the supply-demand balance of ecological assets was the driving factor of land use/cover change. Therefore, it was proposed to strengthen the basic cultural construction, conserve the natural grasslands and optimize the land use and production modes so as to promote the sustainable development in the study area.

Key words: land use/land cover change, CA-Markovmodel, Supply and demand balance, utilization type, three-river headwaters