SRES A1B情景下东北地区未来干旱趋势预估

干旱区研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 329-335.

SRES A1B情景下东北地区未来干旱趋势预估

马建勇^1,2，潘婕²，许吟隆² ，姜江^2,3

1. 贵州省山地环境气候研究所，贵州贵阳550002； 2. 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所，北京100081； 3. 中国科学院大气物理研究所，北京100029

收稿日期:2012-04-01 修回日期:2012-06-15 出版日期:2013-03-15 发布日期:2013-03-29
作者简介:马建勇(1987-)，男，助理工程师，主要从事气候变化等方面的研究．E-mail： majianyong2005571@163.com
基金资助:
中-英-瑞国际合作ACCC项目(ACCC/20100515,ACCC/003);国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流重大项目(40921140410);农业部948项目(2011-G9)

Drought Trend in Northeast China in the Future under SRES A1B Scenario

MA Jian-yong^1,2,PAN Jie²,XU Yin-long²，JIANG Jiang^2,3

1. Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Climate and Environment Sciences,Guiyang 550002, Guizhou, China;  2. Institute of Agroenvironment and Sustainable Development Research,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China; 3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

Received:2012-04-01 Revised:2012-06-15 Published:2013-03-15 Online:2013-03-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用区域气候模式PRECIS(providing regional climates for impacts studies)输出的SRES A1B情景的日平均气温及降水资料，通过计算相对湿润度指数，分析2011—2100年东北地区作物生长季(5—9月)的干旱趋势。结果表明：A1B情景下，2011—2100年东北地区农作物生长季将呈现明显干旱化趋势，相对气候基准时段(1971—2000年)，未来吉林中南部及辽宁省将变湿润，其余地区将变干燥；就干旱发生范围而言，2011—2100年东北地区农作物生长季的干旱发生范围将呈显著增大趋势，2011—2040年、2041—2070年和2071—2100年的30 a平均值较气候基准时段依次变化了-1.3%、17.4%及38.4%；就干旱频率而言，[JP2]未来干旱发生频率较高的区域主要集中在黑龙江的齐齐哈尔与大庆、吉林的白城以及辽宁的朝阳地区，而低频率区主要位于吉林东部及辽宁丹东地区，相对气候基准时段，未来干旱频率预计在辽东湾地区降低2%，黑龙江西南部与吉林西部增加8%~10%，其余地区增加2%~6%。

关键词: SRES A1B情景, 气候模式, 作物生长季, 湿润度指数, 干旱趋势, 东北地区

Abstract: The values of relative humidity index were calculated using the data of mean daily temperature and precipitation from regional climate model system PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies) under SRES A1B scenario so as to analyze the drought trend in northeast China in crop growing season (from May to September).The results showed that,under A1B scenario,an obvious drought trend would increase in northeast China in crop growing season during the period of 2011-2100,compared with baseline (1971-2000),the central and southern regions in Jilin Province and whole Liaoning Province would become moist,and the other places would be arid.Drought area in northeast China would significantly enlarge in crop growing season in the future,and the 30year averaged values of drought area during the periods of 2011-2040,2041-2070,2071-2100 would be changed by -1.3%,17.4% and 38.4% respectively compared with the baseline.The high drought occurring frequency might occur in the Qiqihar and Daqing regions in Heilongjiang Province,Baicheng in Jilin and Chaoyang in Liaoning,while the low drought occurring frequency in the Dandong region in Liaoning and the eastern region in Jilin.Compared with the baseline,it is estimated that the drought frequency in the future would decrease by 2% in the Liaodong Bay area,but increase by 8%-10% in southwest Heilongjiang and west Jilin and 2%-6% in other regions.

Key words: SRES A1B scenario, climate model, crop growing season, relative humidity index, drought trend, northeast China

马建勇, 潘婕, 许吟隆, 姜江. SRES A1B情景下东北地区未来干旱趋势预估[J]. 干旱区研究, 2013, 30(2): 329-335.

MA Jian-Yong, PAN Jie, XU Yin-Long, JIANG Jiang. Drought Trend in Northeast China in the Future under SRES A1B Scenario[J]. , 2013, 30(2): 329-335.

参考文献

冯金社，吴建安．我国旱灾形势和减轻旱灾风险的主要对策〔J〕．灾害学，2008，23(2)：34-36．〔Feng Jinshe，Wu Jia[JP8]n’[JP]an．Drought disaster situation in China and the main strategy for reducing drought risk〔J〕．Journal of Catastrophology，2008，23(2)：34-36.〕
Qian W H,Zhu Y F.Climate change in china from 1880 to 1998 and its impacts on the environmental condition〔J〕.Climate Change,2001,50:419-444
王遵娅，丁一汇，何金海，等．近50 a来中国气候变化特征的再分析〔J〕．气象学报，2004，62(2)：228-236．〔Wang Zunya，Ding Yihui，He Jinhai，et al．An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50 years〔J〕．Acta Meteorologica Sinica，2004，62(2)：228-236.〕
赵春雨，任国玉，张运福，等．近50 a东北地区的气候变化事实检测分析〔J〕．干旱区资源与环境，2009，23(7)：25-30．〔Zhao Chunyu，Ren Guoyu，Zhang Yunfu，et al．An analysis of climate change detection in northeast China in recent 50 years〔J〕．Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment，2009，23(7)：25-30.〕
廉毅，高枞亭，沈柏竹，等．吉林省气候变化及其对粮食生产影响的简析〔J〕．气候变化研究进展，2007，3(1)：46-49．〔Lian Yi，Gao Zongting，Shen Baizhu，et al．Climate change and its impacts on grain production in Jilin Province〔J〕．Advances in Climate Change Research，2007，3(1)：46-49.〕
赵春雨，王颖，张玉书，等．近50 a辽宁省作物生长季气候条件变化及对农业生产的影响〔J〕．灾害学，2009，24(4)：102-106．〔Zhao Chunyu，Wang Ying，Zhang Yushu，et al．Climate conditions of crop growth season and its effect on agricultural production in the recent 50 years in Liaoning Province〔J〕．Journal of Catastrophology，2009，24(4)：102-106.〕
陈莉，方丽娟，李帅．东北地区近50 a农作物生长季干旱趋势研究〔J〕．灾害学，2010，25(4)：5-10．〔Chen Li，Fang Lijuan，Li Shuai．Study on drought trend of crop growing season in northeast China in recent 50 years〔J〕．Journal of Catastrophology，2010，25(4)：5-10.〕
马建勇，许吟隆，潘婕．基于SPI与相对湿润度指数的1961—2009年东北地区5—9月的干旱趋势分析〔J〕．气象与环境学报，2012，28(2)：91-96．〔Ma Jianyong，Xu Yinlong，Pan Jie．Analysis of drought tendency of the 5th-9th month based on standardized precipitation index(SPI) and relative moisture index over northeast China during 1961-2009〔J〕．Journal of Meteorology and Environment，2012，28(2)：91-96.〕
孟猛，宗美娟.中国20世纪干旱化趋势分析〔J〕.干旱区研究，2012,29（2）：257-261.〔Meng Meng,Zong Meijuan.Study on aridity trend in China in 20th century〔J〕.Arid Zone Research,2012,29（2）：257-261.〕
王秀芬，杨艳昭，尤飞.近30 a来黑龙江省气候变化及其对玉米产量的影响〔J〕.干旱区研究，2012,29（6）：1 105-1 111.〔Wang Xiufen,Yang Yanzhao,You Fei.Climate change and its impact to maize yield in Heilongjiang Province〔J〕.Arid Zone Research,2012,29（6）：1 105-1 111.〕
第二次气候变化国家评估报告编写委员会．第二次气候变化国家评估报告〔M〕．北京：科技出版社，2011：165．〔The Second National Climate Change Assessment Report Writing Committee．The Second National Climate Change Assessment Report〔M〕．Beijing:Science Press，2011：165.〕
张英娟，董文杰．中国西北气候模拟及未来干旱情景预估〔C〕//中国气象学会.2007年年会气候变化分会场论文集.2007：202-210．〔Zhang Yingjuan，Dong Wenjie．Climate simulation and future scenario drought projection in northwest China〔C〕// Chinese Meteorological Society.Climate Change of Annual Conference in 2007.2007：202-210.〕
翟建青，曾小凡，苏布达，等．基于ECHAM5模式预估2050年前中国旱涝格局趋势〔J〕．气候变化研究进展，2009，5(4)：220-225．〔Zhai Jianqing，Zeng Xiaofan，Su Buda，et al．Patterns of dryness/wetness in China before 2050 projected by the ECHAM5 model〔J〕．Advances in Climate Change Research，2009，5(4)：220-225.〕
石英，高学杰，吴佳，等．华北地区未来气候变化的高分辨率数值模拟〔J〕．应用气象学报，2010，21(5)：580-589．〔Shi Ying，Gao Xuejie，Wu Jia，et al．Simulating future climate changes over north China with a high resolution regional climate model〔J〕．Journal of Applied Meteorological Science，2010，21(5)：580-589.〕
吴佳，高学杰，张冬峰，等．三峡水库气候效应及2006年夏季川渝高温干旱事件的区域气候模拟〔J〕．热带气象学报，2011，27(1)：44-52．〔Wu Jia，Gao Xuejie，Zhang Dongfeng，et al．Regional climate model simulation of the climate effects of the three gorge reservoir with specific application to the summer 2006 drought over the Sichuan-Chongqing area〔J〕．Journal of Tropical Meteorology，2011，27(1)：44-52.〕
李新周，刘晓东．21世纪中蒙干旱-半干旱地区干旱化趋势的模拟研究〔J〕．干旱区研究，2012，29(2)：262-272．〔Li Xinzhou，Liu Xiaodong．A modeling study on drought trend in the sinomongolian arid and semiarid regions in the 21st century〔J〕．Arid Zone Research，2012，29(2)：262-272.〕 
Nakicenovic N,Alcamo J,Davis G，et a1.Special Report on Emissions Scenarios：A Special Report of Working Group Ⅲ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change〔R〕.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2000: 599.
许吟隆，张勇，林一骅，等．利用PRECIS分析SRES B2情景下中国区域的气候变化响应〔J〕．科学通报，2006，51(17)：2 068-2 074．〔Xu Yinlong，Zhang Yong，Lin Yihua，et al．Projected future climate change in China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS model〔J〕．Chinese Science Bulletin，2006，51(17)：2 068-2 074.〕
中国气象局．GB/T20481-2006气象干旱等级〔S〕．北京：中国标准出版社，2006．〔China Meteorological Administration．The GB/T20481-2006 Meteorological Drought Level〔S〕．Beijing：China Standards Press，2006.〕
马宁,王乃昂,李卓仑，等．1960—2009年巴丹吉林沙漠南北缘气候变化分析〔J〕．干旱区研究，2011，28(2)：242-250．〔Ma Ning，Wang Nai’ang，Li Zhuolun，et al．Analysis on climate change in the northern and southern marginal zones of the Badain Juran Desert during the period 1960-2009〔J〕．Arid Zone Research，2011，28(2)：242-250.〕
许吟隆，Richard Jones．利用ECMWF再分析数据验证PRECIS对中国区域气候的模拟能力〔J〕．中国农业气象，2004，25(1)：5-9．〔Xu Yinlong，Richard Jones．Validating PRECIS with ECMWF reanalysis data over China〔J〕．Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2004，25(1)：5-9.〕
陈楠，许吟隆，陈晓光，等．PRECIS 模式对宁夏气候模拟能力的初步验证〔J〕．气象科学，2008，28(1)：94-99．〔Chen Nan，Xu Yinlong，Chen Xiaoguang，et al．Preliminary validation of PRECIS climate simulation in Ningxia〔J〕．Scientia Meteorologica Sinica，2008，28(1)：94-99.〕
王芳栋，李涛，许吟隆,等．PRECIS和RegCM3对中国区域气候的长期模拟比较〔J〕．中国农业气象，2012，33(2)：159-165．〔Wang Fangdong，Li Tao，Xu Yinlong，et al．Inter comparison of long term simulations of climate over China by PRECIS and RegCM3〔J〕．Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2012，33(2)：159-165.〕

[1]	王雪莹, 谷黄河, 代斌, 张瀚文, 余钟波. 不同水平分辨率区域气候模式对青藏高原气候特征模拟[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(3): 363-374.
[2]	张嘉琪, 刘招, 韩忠青, 王丽霞, 张晋霞, 岳甲寅, 管子隆. 气候变化下泾河流域蓝绿水变化趋势及预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(12): 2045-2055.
[3]	高晓瑜,汤鹏程,张莎,屈忠义,杨威. 内蒙古各气候区主要作物生长季干旱特征及其与响应因子回归模型[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(5): 1410-1427.
[4]	尹文杰，张梦琳，胡立堂. 柴达木盆地干旱时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018, 35(2): 387-394.
[5]	赵晓萌, 李栋梁, 陈光宇. 基于GIS的东北及邻近地区积雪深度空间化方法[J]. 干旱区研究, 2012, 29(6): 927-933.
[6]	李新周, 刘晓东. 21世纪中蒙干旱-半干旱地区干旱化趋势的模拟研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2012, 29(2): 262-272.