干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 654-659.

• 气候及气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

武威市相对湿度气候特征及预报

刘明春1，2, 杨晓玲1，2, 殷玉春2, 胡津革2   

    1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室，甘肃 兰州　730020；
    2. 甘肃省武威市气象局，甘肃 武威　733000
  • 收稿日期:2011-08-16 修回日期:2011-11-07 出版日期:2012-07-15 发布日期:2012-09-11
  • 作者简介:刘明春（1966-），男，青海互助人，高级工程师，主要从事农业气象服务及研究工作.E-mail: wwqxj6150343@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    甘肃省气象局第五批“十人计划”；甘肃省气象局2007年面上科研项目“石羊河流域精细面雨量预报技术和方法研究”（2207-08）共同资助

Climate Characteristics and Forecast of Relative Humidity in Wuwei City

 LIU  Ming-Chun1，2, YANG  Xiao-Ling1，2, YIN  Yu-Chun2, HU  Jin-Ge2   

  1. 1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction, China Meteorological 
    Administration; Gansu  Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China;
    2.  Wuwei Meteorological Bureau, Wuwei 733000, Gansu, China
  • Received:2011-08-16 Revised:2011-11-07 Online:2012-07-15 Published:2012-09-11

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摘要： 利用武威市1960-2009年5个气象站平均相对湿度资料，系统分析该区域相对湿度的时空分布特征及变化趋势。结果表明：相对湿度北部小，南部大。各地年、年代相对湿度总体呈减少趋势，相对湿度的时间序列存在着 6～8 a的周期变化；相对湿度夏季最大，其次为秋季，春季最小，冬季相对湿度总体上呈增加趋势，其他季节为减小趋势；相对湿度8月、9月达到最大，依次向两端减小，4月最小；一天之内，早晚的相对湿度较大，中午前后的相对湿度较小，相对湿度的日变化与气温的日变化呈反相关。同时，运用2003-2007年逐日20时ECMWF数值预报格点场资料，采用Press准则进行预报因子初选，逐步回归预报方法进行预报因子精选，使用最优子集回归建立相对湿度预报方程，采用CSC双评分准则确定各站逐月平均相对湿度全局最优的显著性预报方程，预报方程通过了α=0.01信度检验。预报方程回代拟合率为70%～77%，预报准确率为65%～72%，达到了一定的预报水平，可为相对湿度的业务预报提供客观有效的指导产品。

关键词: 相对湿度, 时空分布, 降水, 气温, 数值预报, 武威市

Abstract: In this paper, the spatiotemporal distribution and change trend of relative humidity were systematically analyzed based on the mean relative humidity data observed by 5 meteorological stations in Wuwei City during the period from 1960 to 2009. The result shows that relative humidity was low in the north but high in the south. Annual and decadal relative humidity was holistically in a decrease trend, and there was a 6-8 year periodic change. Relative humidity was the highest in summer, than in autumn, it was the lowest in spring, holistically in an increase trend  in winter, and in a decrease trend in other seasons. Relative humidity was the highest in August and September and the lowest in April, and it was high in the morning and evening but low around noon. There was a counter correlation between the diurnalvariations of relative humidity and temperature. The daily ECMWF numerical forecast grid field data at 20:00 during the period from 2003 to 2007 were used, the forecast factor was initially elected with Press criterion, the forecast factor was chosen with stepwise regression forecast method, and the relative humidity forecast equations were developed with optimal subset regression. The overall situation and the most superior significance forecast equations of mean monthly relative humidity were determined with the CSC double grading criterion, and the prognostic equations were at a confidence level of  α=0.01. Back substitution fitting rate of the prognostic equations varied in a range of 70%-77%, and the forecast accuracy rate in a range of 65%-72%. Objective and effective instruction products could be provided for forecasting relative humidity.

Key words: relative humidity, spatiotemporal distribution, precipitation, temperature, numerical forecast, Wuwei City