石羊河下游蔡旗站径流变化趋势及影响因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.11.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

石羊河下游是资源性缺水最严重的地区，水资源对当地社会经济发展的约束作用十分显著。以石羊河下游蔡旗水文站1956—2020年径流序列数据为基础，采用滑动t检验法、累计距平法和M-K突变检验法分析蔡旗水文站径流量变化趋势、突变年份，利用Morlet小波法分析径流量的周期变化，利用双累计曲线法和相关分析法对径流量变化的影响因素进行探究。结果表明：（1） 1956—2020年蔡旗水文站年径流量总体呈先减少后增加的趋势，春夏秋三季的径流量亦呈先减少后增加的趋势，冬季则呈波动减少趋势。（2）蔡旗水文站径流量以46 a为第一主周期，存在于整个研究期，丰枯波动变化明显。（3）蔡旗水文站径流量于1972年、2010年发生了两次明显突变，第一次突变后径流量明显减小，第二次突变后径流量明显增加。（4）在研究区气候不断变化的背景下，土地利用变化、跨流域调水引水、产业结构与种植业结构调整、灌区节水等人类活动是引起蔡旗水文站径流量变化的主要原因。研究结果可为流域管理部门合理制定水资源分配及调用方案提供科学依据。

关键词: 径流变化, Morlet小波, 突变检验, 气候变化, 人类活动

Abstract:

The lower reaches of the Shiyang River are the most serious resource-based water shortage areas, and water resources have a significant restraining effect on local social and economic development. Based on the runoff sequence data of the Caiqi hydrological station in Shiyanghe from 1956 to 2020, the sliding t-method, cumulative anomaly method, and M-K mutation test method were used to analyze the trend and abrupt year of runoff at the Caiqi hydrological station. The periodic change of runoff was analyzed using the Morlet wavelet method, and the factors influencing runoff change were analyzed by the double cumulative curve and correlation analysis methods. The results indicated that from 1956 to 2020, the annual runoff of the Caiqi hydrological station decreased and then increased; the runoff in spring, summer, and autumn decreased first and then increased, while winter displayed a decreasing trend. The runoff of the Caiqi hydrological station was studied for 46 years as the main period, which existed during the whole study period, and the fluctuation of abundance and drought changed significantly. The runoff of the Caiqi hydrological station occurred in two apparent mutations in 1972 and 2010, and it decreased significantly after the first mutation and increased considerably after the second mutation. Under the background of regional climate change, human activities, such as land use change, cross-basin water diversion, adjustment of industrial and planting structures, and water conservation in irrigation areas, are the principal reasons for the runoff change at the Caiqi hydrological station. The results can provide a scientific basis for the river basin management department to formulate a rational water resource allocation and transfer plan.

Key words: runoff changes, Morlet wavelet, mutation testing, climatic change, human activities

胡广录, 樊亚仑, 陶虎, 李昊辰, 杨鹏华. 石羊河下游蔡旗站径流变化趋势及影响因素[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(11): 1842-1852.

HU Guanglu, FAN Yalun, TAO Hu, LI Haochen, YANG Penghua. Runoff trends and influencing factors at Caiqi hydrological station in the lower reaches of Shiyang River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(11): 1842-1852.

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	突变点		突变前		突变后		变化率
	年份	显著性	径流量/10⁸ m³	C_v	径流量/10⁸ m³	C_v	变化率
蔡旗水文站	1972年	0.05	4.35	0.20	1.98	0.33	-56.96%
蔡旗水文站	2010年	0.05	1.98	0.33	3.34	0.16	70.41%

年份	城乡建设用地	工矿仓储用地	耕地	草地	林地	湿地	水域	未利用土地
1972年	0.30	0.02	6.15	7.58	0.64	0.33	0.02	18.04
2000年	0.34	0.06	6.29	7.88	0.61	0.34	0.03	17.65
2020年	0.44	0.18	6.75	7.66	0.63	0.37	0.02	17.35

年份	耕地面积 /km²	实际耕地灌溉率/%	人均GDP /10⁴元	建设用地面积/km³	农业用水 /10⁸ m³	工业用水 /10⁸ m³	生活用水 /10⁸ m³	生态用水 /10⁸ m³	总用水量 /10⁸ m³
2000年	6292.05	52.35	0.44	342.76	23.35	1.30	0.41	1.05	26.63
2005年	6612.53	58.51	0.86	344.80	24.01	1.55	1.06	0.83	27.92
2010年	6551.21	55.58	2.02	382.48	20.11	1.67	0.65	0.83	24.03
2015年	6528.47	56.33	2.74	399.27	19.08	2.14	0.49	0.42	23.68
2020年	6752.73	58.58	3.90	436.16	18.88	0.67	0.73	2.24	24.22