基于可持续发展目标的吉尔吉斯斯坦水环境承载力评价

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.06.10

干旱区研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 1801-1809.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.06.10

基于可持续发展目标的吉尔吉斯斯坦水环境承载力评价

王维璐¹(),刘铁^2,³(),罗格平²

1.新疆大学生态与环境学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830046
2.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
3.中国科学院中亚生态与环境研究中心，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011

收稿日期:2020-04-27 修回日期:2020-06-04 出版日期:2022-11-15 发布日期:2023-01-17
通讯作者: 刘铁
作者简介:王维璐（1998-），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为水环境承载力. E-mail: 739448479@qq.com
基金资助:
王宽诚率先人才计划“卢嘉锡国际团队项目”-中亚咸海生态与环境修复国际研究团队(GJTD-2020-14);中国科学院国际合作课题-咸海流域重点灌区农业高效节水技术(131965KYSB20200029)

An evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity in Kyrgyzstan based on sustainable development goals

WANG Weilu¹(),LIU Tie^2,³(),LUO Geping²

1. College of Resources & Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
3. Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China

Received:2020-04-27 Revised:2020-06-04 Online:2022-11-15 Published:2023-01-17
Contact: Tie LIU

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本研究借鉴2030可持续发展目标（SDGs）的评估指标，采用熵值法和层次分析法确定指标权重，利用主成分分析法分析2006—2020年吉尔吉斯斯坦水环境承载力变化趋势，通过向量模法确定了影响吉尔吉斯斯坦水环境承载力的主要影响要素。结果表明：2006—2020年吉尔吉斯斯坦水环境承载力总体呈增强趋势。水环境和社会经济子系统促进水环境承载力持续升高，而水生态和水资源子系统限制水环境承载力。人口密度、用水紧缺度、水体面积、可再生水资源人均占有量是限制水环境承载力的主要影响因素。增加城镇化率、提升用水效率、减少废污水排放量和提高废水处理率是吉尔吉斯斯坦水环境承载力提高的有效途径。

关键词: 水环境承载力, 可持续发展目标（SDGs）, 主成分分析法, 向量模法, 吉尔吉斯斯坦

Abstract:

Kyrgyzstan is an important transportation hub for the countries along The Belt and Road Initiative in China, which is rich in mineral resources, has an underdeveloped economy, has frequent human activities, and has relatively weak ecological environmental protection, resulting in major water environmental problems. Drawing on the evaluation indicators of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, this study uses the entropy and the analytic hierarchy methods to determine the weights of the indicators, analyzes the change trend of the carrying capacity of the water environment in Kyrgyzstan from 2006 to 2020 using the principal component analysis method, and determines the main influencing factors affecting the carrying capacity of the water environment in Kyrgyzstan using the vector model method. The results show that the carrying capacity of the water environment in Kyrgyzstan from 2006 to 2020 shows an overall enhancement trend. The water environment and socio-economic subsystems promote the continuous increase in the carrying capacity of the water environment, while the water ecology and water resource subsystems limit the carrying capacity of the water environment. Population density, water shortage, water body area, and per capita share of renewable water resources are the main influencing factors limiting the water environment’s carrying capacity. Increasing the rate of urbanization, improving the efficiency of water use, reducing the discharge of wastewater, and increasing the rate of wastewater treatment are effective ways to improve the water environment’s carrying capacity in Kyrgyzstan.

Key words: water environmental carrying capacity, sustainable development goals, principal component analysis method, vector modulus method, Kyrgyzstan

王维璐,刘铁,罗格平. 基于可持续发展目标的吉尔吉斯斯坦水环境承载力评价[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(6): 1801-1809.

WANG Weilu,LIU Tie,LUO Geping. An evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity in Kyrgyzstan based on sustainable development goals[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(6): 1801-1809.

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准则层	指标	指标性质	计算方法	指标含义	对应SDG目标
社会经济	人均GDP/美元	+	国内生产总值/总人口	经济发展状况	可持续经济增长(SDG8)
	人口密度/(人·km^-2)	-	总人口/总面积	人口聚集程度	可持续城市(SDG11)
	城镇化率/%	+	(城镇人口/总人口) ×100%	城镇化程度	可持续城市(SDG11)
	国家环境保护预算支出/百万索姆	+	统计数据	地区水环保工作投资力度	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
水资源	用水效率/（美元·m^-3）	+	总产值/(用水量-回流量)	用水效率	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	用水紧缺程度/%	-	总可再生淡水资源/(总水资源量+降水量-生态环境用水量)	用水压力	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	人均取水量总量/ (m³·人^-1·a^-1)	-	总取水总量/总人口	生产、生活取水水平综合指标	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
水环境	BOD排放量/t	-	观测数据	水体水质污染情况	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	氨氮排放量/t	-	观测数据	水体水质污染情况	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	肥料消费量/（kg·hm^-2）	-	统计数据	农业污染压力	消除饥饿(SDG2)
	废污水排放量/10⁸m³	-	观测数据	水体水质污染情况	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	污水处理率/%	+	（污水排放量/废水站收集的废水量）×100%	污水处理能力	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
水生态	森林覆盖比例/%	+	森林面积/国土面积	土地覆被与水源涵养	可持续陆地生态系统(SDG15)
	水体范围/km²	+	观测数据	水资源整体丰裕程度	水和环境卫生(SDG6)
	可再生水资源人均占有量/（m³·人^-1）	+	当地可再生水资源总量/总人口	水资源丰缺及发展潜力	水和环境卫生(SDG6)

主成分	特征值	贡献率/%	累计贡献率/%
第一主成分	10.708	71.385	71.385
第二主成分	1.79	11.931	83.316
第三主成分	1.236	8.238	91.555
第四主成分	0.6	3.999	95.554

变量	主成分一	主成分二	主成分三
人均GDP	0.944	-0.018	0.02
人口密度	-0.971	0.188	-0.033
城镇化率	0.845	-0.432	0.126
国家环境保护预算支出	0.891	0.246	-0.151
用水效率	0.984	-0.106	0.064
用水紧缺程度	-0.868	0.354	0.302
人均取水量总量	0.969	-0.029	0.005
BOD排放量	0.768	0.147	0.173
氨氮排放量	-0.156	-0.843	0.313
肥料消费量	0.328	-0.05	-0.922
废污水排放量	0.769	0.526	0.217
污水处理率	0.796	0.554	0.197
森林覆盖比例	0.962	-0.17	0.155
水体范围	-0.946	-0.019	0.112
可再生水资源人均占有量	-0.97	0.148	-0.025

年份	F₁	F₂	F₃	综合得分	排序
2006	-1.07	-0.01	0.34	-0.81	14
2007	-0.96	-0.03	0.3	-0.73	13
2008	-0.67	0.09	0.13	-0.5	12
2009	0.17	1.1	0.54	0.33	11
2010	0.29	0.78	0.71	0.39	10
2011	0.36	1.22	0.26	0.46	9
2012	0.48	0.92	0.62	0.55	8
2013	0.6	0.63	0.85	0.63	7
2014	0.78	0.74	1	0.8	6
2015	1.59	0.42	-0.02	1.3	5
2016	1.73	0.5	0.03	1.42	4
2017	2.06	0.28	-0.06	1.64	3
2018	2.14	0.1	0.55	1.73	1
2019	2.13	0.04	0.65	1.73	1
2020	2.13	-0.08	0.66	1.71	2

指标	熵值法	AHP法	组合权重
人均GDP	0.07043	0.03176	0.04087
人口密度	0.09961	0.07968	0.14503
城镇化率	0.03522	0.20893	0.13445
国家环境保护预算支出	0.04980	0.03664	0.03335
用水效率	0.08041	0.04350	0.06392
用水紧缺程度	0.05065	0.15204	0.14072
人均取水量总量	0.03191	0.05694	0.03320
BOD排放量	0.05027	0.05508	0.05060
氨氮排放量	0.08962	0.01228	0.02012
肥料消费量	0.04036	0.03181	0.02346
废污水排放量	0.16922	0.02972	0.09188
污水处理率	0.12526	0.02598	0.05946
森林覆盖比例	0.01834	0.06028	0.02020
水体范围	0.06057	0.07222	0.07993
可再生水资源人均占有量	0.03333	0.10314	0.06282

基于可持续发展目标的吉尔吉斯斯坦水环境承载力评价

An evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity in Kyrgyzstan based on sustainable development goals

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