喀喇昆仑山克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖突发洪水警戒面积研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.05

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 622-636.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.05

喀喇昆仑山克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖突发洪水警戒面积研究

罗希¹^,²^,³(), 阿里木江·卡斯木¹^,², 刘英³^,⁴^,⁵(), 包安明³^,⁴^,⁵, 袁野³^,⁴^,⁵, 于涛³^,⁴^,⁵

1.新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830054
2.新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830054
3.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
4.新疆维吾尔自治区遥感与地理信息系统应用重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
5.中国科学院大学，北京 100049

收稿日期:2024-08-10 修回日期:2025-02-19 出版日期:2025-04-15 发布日期:2025-04-10
通讯作者: 刘英. E-mail: lyhello@yeah.net
作者简介:罗希（2000-），女，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为资源环境遥感. E-mail: luoxi@stu.xjnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发专项资助(2022B03021-1);新疆维吾尔自治区“天山英才培养”计划资助(2022TSYCLJ0011)

Research on the alert area of Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods in the Karakoram Mountains

LUO Xi¹^,²^,³(), Alimujiang KASIMU¹^,², LIU Ying³^,⁴^,⁵(), BAO Anming³^,⁴^,⁵, YUAN Ye³^,⁴^,⁵, YU Tao³^,⁴^,⁵

1. College of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang, China
2. Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Zone, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
4. Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2024-08-10 Revised:2025-02-19 Published:2025-04-15 Online:2025-04-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

周期性形成的克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖突然排水导致的洪水灾害对下游构成严重威胁。在全球气候变暖背景下，开展克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖的监测预警研究尤为必要。本文基于1990—2023年的多源光学遥感数据，分析了克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖面积变化以及突然排水情况，利用面积-体积经验公式和历史洪水数据，以最小排水体积为临界值，推算出克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖突发洪水的警戒湖面面积。同时，通过建立排水体积与净洪峰流量的关系，验证了警戒面积的合理性。结果表明：克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖在过去的34 a间共发生了20次突然排水事件，其中17次形成突发洪水，1996—2009年和2015—2019年是反复蓄水和排水的两个不稳定期。冰湖警戒面积为1.046 km²，其突然排水产生的净洪峰流量为418 m³·s^-1。尽管克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖面积呈下降趋势，但其引发的洪水灾害风险并未降低，克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖突发洪水与基本径流叠加仍可能对下游构成威胁。当冰湖面积接近警戒面积时，应密切监测冰湖的变化，同时结合水文站基本径流情况进行早期预警。本研究提出的警戒面积指标及其确定方法为克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖突发洪水的预警监测提供了科学支撑，对叶尔羌河流域洪水灾害预警有一定参考意义。

关键词: 冰湖突发洪水, 预警, 面积变化, 克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖, 喀喇昆仑山

Abstract:

The periodic outburst floods from the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake pose a severe threat to downstream areas. In the context of global warming, research on monitoring and early warning for the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake is particularly important. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the alert area for the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods. The area changes and sudden drainage events of the lake were first analyzed using multi-source optical remote sensing data from 1990-2023. Then, the critical minimum drainage volume of the lake was calculated using an area-volume empirical formula and historical flood data. At the same time, the rationality of the alert area was verified through the relationship between the drainage volume and the net flood peak discharge established in this study. The results showed that the lake experienced 20 sudden drainage events over the past 34 years, 17 of which led to glacial lake outburst floods. The periods 1996-2009 and 2015-2019 were unstable, with repeated lake filling and draining. The alert area for the outburst floods of the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake is 1.046 km², and the alert net flood peak discharge resulting from the sudden drainage is 418 m³·s^-1. Although the lake area shows a decreasing trend, the risk of flood disasters triggered by the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods does not necessarily decrease. The lake outburst flood, when superimposed on high basic runoff, can still threaten downstream areas. When the lake area approaches its alert area, it is necessary to monitor its changes closely and implement early warning measures in combination with the basic runoff at the hydrological station. The proposed alert lake area and its determination method may provide scientific support for early warning monitoring of the outburst flood of the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake and offer guidance for early warning of flood disasters in the Yarkand River Basin.

Key words: glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF), early warning, area change, Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake, Karakoram Mountains

罗希, 阿里木江·卡斯木, 刘英, 包安明, 袁野, 于涛. 喀喇昆仑山克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖突发洪水警戒面积研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(4): 622-636.

LUO Xi, Alimujiang KASIMU, LIU Ying, BAO Anming, YUAN Ye, YU Tao. Research on the alert area of Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods in the Karakoram Mountains[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(4): 622-636.

图/表 12

图1

表1

图2

表2

图3

图4

图5

表3

图6

图7

图8

图9

参考文献 41

[1]	Allen S K, Linsbauer A, Randhawa S S, et al. Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: An integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats[J]. Natural Hazards, 2016, 84(3): 1741-1763.
[2]	Emmer A, Harrison S, Mergili M, et al. 70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future[J]. Geomorphology, 2020, 365: 107178.
[3]	Zheng G, Allen S, Bao A, et al. Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2021, 11: 411-417.
[4]	Zheng G, Bao A, Allen S, et al. Numerous unreported glacial lake outburst floods in the Third Pole revealed by high-resolution satellite data and geomorphological evidence[J]. Science Bulletin, 2021, 66(13): 1270-1273. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2021.01.014 pmid: 36654147
[5]	Round V, Leinss S, Huss M, et al. Surge dynamics and lake outbursts of Kyagar Glacier, Karakoram[J]. The Cryosphere, 2017, 11(2): 723-739.
[6]	张祥松, 周聿超. 喀喇昆仑山叶尔羌河冰川湖突发洪水研究[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1990.
	[Zhang Xiangsong, Zhou Yuchao. Research on Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Yarkand River of the Karakoram Mountains[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 1990.]
[7]	张祥松, 李念杰, 由希尧, 等. 新疆叶尔羌河冰川湖突发洪水研究[J]. 中国科学(B辑化学生命科学地学), 1989, 40(11): 1197-1204, 1233-1234.
	[Zhang Xiangsong, Li Nianjie, You Xiyao, et al. A study on the sudden glacial lake outburst flood of the Yarkand River in Xinjiang[J]. Science in China (Series B: Chemistry, Life Sciences, Earth Sciences), 1989, 40(11): 1197-1204, 1233-1234.]
[8]	Zhang M, Chen F, Tian B, et al. Characterization of Kyagar Glacier and lake outburst floods in 2018 based on time-series Sentinel-1A data[J]. Water, 2020, 12(1): 184.
[9]	Hewitt K. Tributary glacier surges: An exceptional concentration at Panmah Glacier, Karakoram Himalaya[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2007, 53: 181.
[10]	丁辉, 蔡向辉. 新疆叶尔羌河洪水发生规律分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2011, 94(1): 35-36, 43.
	[Ding Hui, Cai Xianghui. Analysis of the flood occurrence pattern of the Yarkand River in Xinjiang[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2011, 94(1): 35-36, 43.]
[11]	袁波波, 彭亮, 姜卉芳. 叶尔羌河冰湖溃坝洪水早期预警系统参数的确定方法[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2014, 25(6): 82-85.
	[Yuan Bobo, Peng Liang, Jiang Huifang. Method of parameter determination for early warning system (EWS) of outburst flood in glacial lake of Yarkant River[J]. Journal of Water Resources ＆ Water Engineering, 2014, 25(6): 82-85.]
[12]	敖志刚, 丁辉. 中瑞叶尔羌河冰川湖洪水监测预警项目管理经验浅析[J]. 科技传播, 2014, 6(5): 166, 149.
	[Ao Zhigang, Ding Hui. Preliminary analysis of the management experience of the Sino-Swiss glacial lake outburst flood monitoring and early warning project in the Yarkand River[J]. Science and Technology Communication, 2014, 6(5): 166, 149.]
[13]	彭亮, 敖志刚, 陈建江, 等. 喀喇昆仑山克亚吉尔冰川湖监测预警设计与应用[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2014, 25(5): 124-126, 131.
	[Peng Liang, Ao Zhigang, Chen Jianjiang, et al. Design and application of monitoring and early warning to Kyagar Glacier lake in the Karakorum Mountain[J]. Journal of Water Resources ＆ Water Engineering, 2014, 25(5): 124-126, 131.]
[14]	Haemmig C, Huss M, Keusen H, et al. Hazard assessment of glacial lake outburst floods from Kyagar Glacier, Karakoram Mountains, China[J]. Annals of Glaciology, 2014, 55(66): 34-44.
[15]	袁波波. 叶尔羌河冰川湖溃决洪水监测预警研究[D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆农业大学, 2015.
	[Yuan Bobo. Study on Monitoring and Early Warning of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in Yarkant River Basin[D]. Urumqi: Xinjiang Agricultural University, 2015.]
[16]	蒋紫云. 气候变化背景下克亚吉尔冰川运动对冰湖变化的影响研究[D]. 信阳: 信阳师范学院, 2023.
	[Jiang Ziyun. Study on Kyagar Glacier Movement and Its Influence on Glacial Lake Variation Under Climate Change[D]. Xinyang: Xinyang Normal University, 2023.]
[17]	Yan W, Liu J, Zhang M, et al. Outburst flood forecasting by monitoring glacier-dammed lake using satellite images of Karakoram Mountains, China[J]. Quaternary International, 2017, 453: 24-36.
[18]	Luo Y, Liu Q, Zhong Y, et al. Remote-sensing-based monitoring the dynamics of Kyagar Glacial Lake in the upstream section of Yarkant River, north Karakoram[J]. Land Degradation & Development, 2022, 34(3): 610-623.
[19]	姚晓军, 刘时银, 魏俊锋. 喜马拉雅山北坡冰碛湖库容计算及变化——以龙巴萨巴湖为例[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65(11): 1381-1390. doi: 10.11821/xb201011008
	[Yao Xiaojun, Liu Shiyin, Wei Junfeng. Reservoir capacity calculation and variation of moraine-dammed lakes in the North Himalayas: A case study of Longbasaba Lake[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(11): 1381-1390.] doi: 10.11821/xb201011008
[20]	车涛, 晋锐, 李新, 等. 近20 a来西藏朋曲流域冰湖变化及潜在溃决冰湖分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2004, 26(4): 397-402.
	[Che Tao, Jin Rui, Li Xin, et al. Glacial lakes variation and analysis of potential outburst glacial lakes in the Pengqu River Basin, Tibet, over the past 20 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2004, 26(4): 397-402.]
[21]	汪宙峰, 贺相綦, 王成武. 基于地理探测器与SVM的冰湖溃决预测研究——以喜马拉雅山地区为例[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2022, 31(6): 220-228.
	[Wang Zhoufeng, He Xiangqi, Wang Chengwu. Prediction of glacial lake outburst floods based on geodetector and SVM: A case study of the Himalayan region[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2022, 31(6): 220-228.]
[22]	吴坤鹏. 天山冰湖变化及其影响研究[D]. 湘潭: 湖南科技大学, 2015.
	[Wu Kunpeng. The Change of Glacial Lake and Its Influence in Tianshan Mountains[D]. Xiangtan: Hunan University of Science and Technology, 2015.]
[23]	Rinzin S, Zhang G, Wangchuk S. Glacial Lake area change and potential outburst flood hazard assessment in the Bhutan Himalaya[J]. Frontiers in Earth Science, 2021, 9: 775195.
[24]	李治国, 姚檀栋, 叶庆华, 等. 1980—2007年喜马拉雅东段洛扎地区冰湖变化遥感研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(5): 836-846.
	[Li Zhiguo, Yao Tandong, Ye Qinghua, et al. Monitoring glacial lake variations based on remote sensing in the Lhozhag District, Eastern Himalayas, 1980-2007[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(5): 836-846.]
[25]	Zhang T, Wang W, Gao T, et al. An integrative method for identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Himalayas[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2022, 806: 150442.
[26]	Zhang Z, Zhao J, Liu S, et al. Characterization of three surges of the Kyagar Glacier, Karakoram[J]. Remote Sensing, 2023, 15(8): 2113.
[27]	王杰, 马英杰. 新疆叶尔羌河溃坝洪水分析[J]. 中国水运(下半月), 2016, 16(6): 212-214.
	[Wang Jie, Ma Yingjie. Analysis of dam break flood in the Yarkand River, Xinjiang[J]. China Water Transport (Part B), 2016, 16(6): 212-214.]
[28]	Xie Z Y, Shangguan D H, Zhang S Q, et al. Index for hazard of glacier lake outburst flood of Lake Merzbacher by satellite-based monitoring of lake area and ice cover[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2013, 107(5): 229-237.
[29]	李达, 上官冬辉, 黄维东. 1998—2017年天山麦兹巴赫冰川湖面积变化研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2020, 42(4): 1126-1134. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2019.0308
	[Li Da, Shangguan Donghui, Huang Weidong. Research on the area change of Lake Merzbacher in the Tianshan Mountains during 1998-2017[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2020, 42(4): 1126-1134.]
[30]	郭万钦, 刘时银, 许君利, 等. 木孜塔格西北坡鱼鳞川冰川跃动遥感监测[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(4):765-774.
	[Guo Wanqin, Liu Shiyin, Xu Junli, et al. Monitoring recent surging of the Yulinchuan Glacier on North slopes of Muztag Range by remote sensing[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(4): 765-774.]
[31]	孙永玲, 江利明, 柳林, 等. 基于Landsat-7 ETM+SLC-OFF影像的山地冰川流速提取与评估——以Karakoram锡亚琴冰川为例[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 596-603. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0066
	[Sun Yongling, Jiang Liming, Liu Lin, et al. Surface flow velocity of mountain glaciers derived from Landsat-7 ETM+SLC-OFF images: Extraction and quantitative evaluation:A case study of the Siachen Glacier in the Karakoram[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2016, 38(3): 596-603.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0066
[32]	努尔比亚·吐尼牙孜, 米日古丽·米吉提, 毛炜峄, 等. 1961—2021年叶尔羌河流域克亚吉尔冰湖溃决洪水变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2023, 45(4): 1288-1299. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2023.0099
	[Tunyaz Nurbiye, Mijit Mihrigul, Mao Weiyi, et al. Variation characteristics of Kyagar Glacial Lake outburst floods in the Yarkand River Basin from 1961 to 2021[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2023, 45(4): 1288-1299.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2023.0099
[33]	王杰. 叶尔羌河冰川湖溃决洪水与融雪型洪水的分型及组合研究[D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆农业大学, 2018.
	[Wang Jie. Study on Typing and Combination of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood and Snowmelt Flood in Yarkand River Basin[D]. Urumqi: Xinjiang Agricultural University, 2018.]
[34]	杨静. 叶尔羌河库鲁克栏杆站-喀群站洪水传播时间规律[J]. 吉林水利, 2014(7): 57-59.
	[Yang Jing. Law of flood propagation time in Kuluklangan station-Kaqun station in Yarkant River[J]. Jilin Water Resources, 2014(7): 57-59.]
[35]	孙步伟, 赵萍, 程雷, 等. 基于Munsell HSV变换的 TM 影像水体提取方法研究[J]. 遥感技术与应用, 2009, 24(6): 797-800. doi: 10.11873/j.issn.1004-0323.2009.6.797
	[Sun Buwei, Zhao Ping, Cheng Lei, et al. Study on extraction method of water body from TM based on Munsell HSV transformation[J]. Remote Sensing Technology and Application, 2009, 24(6): 797-800.]
[36]	Su C H, Chiu H S, Hsieh T M. An efficient image retrieval based on HSV color space[C]// International Conference on Electrical and Control Engineering. IEEE, 2011: 5746-5749.
[37]	Shean D. High Mountain Asia 8-meter DEMs derived from along-track optical imagery, version 1, user guide[EB/OL]. https://doi.org/10.5067/GSACB044M4PK, 2017.
[38]	刘军彦, 王世杰. 基于ICESat-2卫星测高数据的呼伦湖水位变化监测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(9): 1438-1445. doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.09.07
	[Liu Junyan, Wang Shijie. Monitoring of Hulun Lake water level changes based on ICESat-2 satellite altimetry data[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(9): 1438-1445.] doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.09.07
[39]	马云飞. 叶尔羌河冰川湖突发洪水变化特征及防御研究[D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆农业大学, 2022.
	[Ma Yunfei. Characteristics and Prevention of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood the Yarkand River[D]. Urumqi: Xinjiang Agricultural University, 2022.]
[40]	牛竞飞, 刘景时, 王迪, 等. 2009年喀喇昆仑山叶尔羌河冰川阻塞湖及冰川跃动监测[J]. 山地学报, 2011, 29(3): 276-282.
	[Niu Jingfei, Liu Jingshi, Wang Di, et al. Monitoring on ice-dammed lake and related surging glaciers in the Yarkant River, Karakoram in 2009[J]. Mountain Research, 2011, 29(3): 276-282.]
[41]	Shangguan D, Ding Y, Liu S, et al. Quick release of internal water storage in a glacier leads to underestimation of the hazard potential of glacial lake outburst floods from lake Merzbacher in Central Tian Shan Mountains[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2017, 44(19): 9786-9795.

年份	数据集/传感器	影像日期/年-月-日	分辨率/m	年份	数据集/传感器	影像日期/年-月-日	分辨率/m
1990年	Landsat-5 TM	1990-03-09	30	2008年	Landsat-5 TM	2008-06-14	30
1991年	Landsat-5 TM	1991-07-02	30	2009年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2009-07-27	30
1992年	Landsat-5 TM	1992-07-29	30	2009年	Landsat-5 TM	2009-07-28	30
1993年	Landsat-5 TM	1993-07-07	30	2010年	Landsat-5 TM	2010-08-23	30
1994年	Landsat-5 TM	1994-08-27	30	2011年	Landsat-5 TM	2011-08-10	30
1995年	Landsat-5 TM	1995-01-18	30	2012年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2012-08-20	30
1996年	Landsat-5 TM	1996-09-01	30	2013年	Landsat-8 OLI	2013-07-30	30
1997年	Landsat-5 TM	1997-07-18	30	2014年	Landsat-8 OLI	2014-07-01	30
1998年	Landsat-5 TM	1998-10-09	30	2015年	GF-1 WFV2	2015-07-24	16
	Landsat-5 TM	1998-10-25	30	2016年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2016-07-14	30
	Landsat-5 TM	1998-11-03	30		Landsat-7 EMT+	2016-07-30	30
1999年	Landsat-7 EMT+	1999-07-09	30		HJ1A CCD1	2016-08-02	30
2000年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2000-06-25	30		HJ1A CCD1	2016-08-10	30
2000年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2000-07-27	30	2017年	Landsat-8 OLI	2017-08-10	30
2001年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2001-07-05	30	2017年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2017-08-31	10
2002年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2002-08-09	30	2018年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2018-08-06	10
2003年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2003-08-12	30	2019年	GF-6 WFV	2019-07-25	16
2004年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2004-09-15	30	2020年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2020-06-06	10
2005年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2005-08-26	30	2021年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2021-07-16	10
2006年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2006-07-19	30	2022年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2022-06-26	10
2007年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2007-06-20	30	2023年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2023-08-30	10

序号	年份	水文站	洪峰流量/（m³·s^-1）	基本流量/（m³·s^-1）	净洪峰流量/（m³·s^-1）	发生日期/月-日	文献来源
1	1997年	卡群站	4040	1033	3007	08-03	[33]
2	1998年	卡群站	1850	88	1762	11-05	[33]
3	1999年	卡群站	6070	1113	4967	08-11	[33]
4	2001年	卡群站	1630	1026	604	07-08	[33]
5	2002年	卡群站	4610	1420	3190	08-13	[33]
6	2003年	卡群站	1860	377	1483	08-26	[33]
7	2004年	卡群站	1360	253	1107	09-20	[33]
8	2005年	卡群站	1640	396	1244	09-02	[33]
9	2006年	卡群站	3510	1768	1742	08-02	[33]
10	2007年	卡群站	1300	654	646	07-16	[33]
11	2009年	卡群站	1680	595	1085	07-30	[33]
12	2015年	库鲁克栏杆站	2230	1500	730	07-28	[17]
13	2016年	库鲁克栏杆站	1930	798	1132	07-17	[17]
14	2016年	库鲁克栏杆站	2120	900	1220	08-11	[17]
15	2017年	库鲁克栏杆站	2753	-	-	08-11	[16]
16	2018年	卡群站	1330	-	-	08-10	[32]
17	2019年	卡群站	1290	-	-	07-31	[32]

日期/年-月-日	湖泊面积/km²	未完全排水剩余湖泊面积/km²	排水体积 /10⁶ m³	净洪峰流量估算值 /（m³·s^-1）	净洪峰流量观测值 /（m³·s^-1）	相对误差/%
2015-07-28	1.72		50.61	958	569	68.39
2016-07-17	1.69	0.51	39.54	701	876	-20.00
2016-08-11	1.37		36.6	635	948	-33.04
2018-08-10	2.15	0.51	60.17	1193	316~716	-
2019-07-31	1.14	0.18	26.33	418	217~617	-
2000-06-25	0.82		18.2	262	-	-
2008-06-14	0.90		20.62	307	-	-
2017-08-10	2.64	0.92	73.8	1546	-	-
2017-08-31	1.33	0.65	21.75	328	-	-

喀喇昆仑山克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖突发洪水警戒面积研究

Research on the alert area of Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods in the Karakoram Mountains

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 12

参考文献 41

相关文章 7

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	马元植, 覃小林, 凌红波, 闫俊杰, 张广朋. 1991—2020年新疆中小湖泊面积变化时空特征及趋势分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(6): 905-916.
[2]	黄犁, 徐丽萍. 玛纳斯河流域绿洲时空演变及其景观格局变化 [J]. 干旱区研究, 2019, 36(5): 1261-1269.
[3]	童小芹, 王淑智, 夏咏, 张晔, 刘越芳, 潘响亮. 应用叶绿素荧光技术快速预警乌鲁木齐典型农作物干旱胁迫[J]. 干旱区研究, 2013, 30(5): 860-866.
[4]	朱平, 肖建设, 伏洋. 青藏高原东北部冰雹和雷雨预警的风暴单体识别特征对比分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2012, 29(6): 941-948.
[5]	黄雪姣, 徐海燕, 冯元忠, 阎平. 中国喀喇昆仑山龙胆科植物研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2011, 28(4): 638-642.
[6]	许晓敏, 马真, 陶锦, 阎平. 中国喀喇昆仑山十字花科多样性与区系分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2011, 28(3): 537-541.
[7]	李晓霞, 王勇, 关向宁, 王有生, 全建瑞. 铁路水害及预警模型[J]. 干旱区研究, 2011, 28(1): 181-186.