1956—2021年疏勒河流域主要河流出山径流变化及成因分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.06.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1956—2021年疏勒河、石油河和党河出山口水文站的实测径流量和托勒气象站以及再分析气象数据，采用Sen’s slope估计法、Mann-Kendall检验法，分析了3条河流径流变化特征及其成因。结果表明：（1） 1956—2021年3条河流出山径流量变化均为增加趋势，其中疏勒河和党河为显著性增加趋势，石油河为非显著性增加趋势。（2） 3条河流突变年份分别在1998年、2007年和1982年，突变后径流量显著增加，疏勒河变化率为60%，石油河和党河大约为20%。（3）疏勒河和石油河径流量在2000s后为研究时段丰水期，而党河在1980s后缓慢增加并在2020s初出现历史丰水值。（4）受波动性降水增加和1986年后加速上升的气温所引起冰川加速消融等原因的共同影响，3条河流出山径流量的年平均和各季节流量均为增加态势。

关键词: 疏勒河流域, 出山径流, 变化, 成因分析

Abstract:

Based on the measured runoff from the hydrological stations of Shule River, Shiyou River, and Dang River from 1956 to 2021, as well as the meteorological station of Tuole and reanalyzed meteorological data, the characteristics of runoff changes of the three rivers and their causes were analyzed using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that the runoff changes of the three rivers showed an upward trend from 1956 to 2021, among which the Shule River and the Dang River showed significantly increasing trends, while the Shiyou River showed a non-significant increasing trend. The years of abrupt change for the three rivers were 1998, 2007, and 1982, respectively. The runoff increased significantly after the abrupt change, in which the Shule River increased by 60%, while the Shiyou River and the Dang River increased by approximately 20%. Runoff from the Shule River and Shiyou River was abundant during the study period after the 2000s, while runoff from the Dang River increased slowly after the 1980s and showed a historical abundance value in the early 2020s. The combined effect of increased fluctuating precipitation and accelerated glacier melting due to accelerated temperature rise after 1986 resulted in an increasing trend of both average annual and seasonal runoff for these three rivers.

Key words: Shule River Basin, runoff from mountainous areas, variation, causal analysis

王学良,陈仁升,刘俊峰,韩春坛. 1956—2021年疏勒河流域主要河流出山径流变化及成因分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(6): 1782-1792.

WANG Xueliang,CHEN Rensheng,LIU Junfeng,HAN Chuntan. Changes in runoff from major rivers and analysis of its causes in the Shule River Basin from 1956-2021[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(6): 1782-1792.

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河流	水文站/气象站	观测项目	控制面积/10⁴ km²	海拔/m	经度	纬度	资料系列
疏勒河	昌马堡	流量	1.0961	2080	96°51′	39°49′	1956—2021年
石油河	玉门市	流量	0.0656	2300	97°33′	39°47′	1978—2021年
党河	党城湾	流量	1.4325	2 176	94°53′	39°30′	1966—2021年
	托勒	气温、降水		3367	98°25′	38°48′	1956—2021年
	鱼儿红	降水		3030	97°06′	39°26′	1956—2021年

河流	水文站	Sen’s slope估计变化率	M-K趋势检验值
河流	水文站	Sen’s slope估计变化率	年	春	夏	秋	冬
疏勒河	昌马堡	0.115	6.165^**	5.966^**	5.179^**	5.805^**	7.676^**
石油河	玉门市	0.002	1.588	-0.496	1.001	3.044^**	2.316^*
党河	党城湾	0.020	5.131^**	4.057^**	4.806^**	4.361^**	1.456

河流	水文站	平均径流量 /10⁸ m³	变差系数C_v	最大年径流量 /10⁸ m³	出现年份	与多年均值比	最小年径流量 /10⁸ m³	出现年份	与多年均值比	极值比
疏勒河	昌马堡	10.336	0.31	17.439	2017年	1.69	4.131	1956年	0.40	4.22
石油河	玉门市	0.316	0.36	0.593	2016年	1.88	0.118	1997年	0.37	5.04
党河	党城湾	3.560	0.15	5.057	2019年	1.42	2.804	1968年	0.79	1.80

河流	水文站	M-K突变年份	突变前平均年径流量/10⁸ m³	突变后平均年径流量/10⁸m³	变化率/%
疏勒河	昌马堡	1998年	8.543	13.689	60
石油河	玉门	2007年	0.271	0.340	26
党河	党城湾	1982年	3.169	3.892	23