石羊河流域水生态安全影响因子及驱动机制研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.20

干旱区研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (5): 1555-1563.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.20 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20220520

石羊河流域水生态安全影响因子及驱动机制研究

戴文渊¹(),郭武¹(),郑志祥²,陈亦晨¹,张芮³,许勇¹

1.甘肃政法大学环境法学院,甘肃兰州 730070
2.甘肃省证据科学技术研究与应用重点实验室,甘肃兰州 730070
3.甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,甘肃兰州 730070

收稿日期:2022-02-02 修回日期:2022-06-23 出版日期:2022-09-15 发布日期:2022-10-25
作者简介:戴文渊（1989-）,男,博士,主要从事资源与环境法学、生态安全评价研究. E-mail: 13993181879@163.com
基金资助:
甘肃政法大学校级重点项目(GZF2021XZD05);2022年度甘肃省高等学校青年博士基金项目(2022QB-120);2022年度甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目(基于区域水生态安全的“兰白定临”协同发展研究);2021年度甘肃省“双一流”建设科研重点项目(黄河流域生态保护协同治理的法治保障研究);2020年度甘肃省高等学校产业支撑计划项目(2020C-32);甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广计划项目(22GSLK047)

Water ecological security influence factor and driving mechanism research in Shiyang River Basin

DAI Wenyuan¹(),GUO Wu¹(),ZHENG Zhixiang²,CHEN Yichen¹,ZHANG Rui³,XU Yong¹

1. Environmental Law College,Gansu University of Political Science and Law, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
2. Key Laboratory of Evidence Science Techniques Research and Application, Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
3. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China

Received:2022-02-02 Revised:2022-06-23 Published:2022-09-15 Online:2022-10-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于W-SENCE-PSR（以水为主线的复合生态系统-压力状态响应）框架模型构建水生态安全评价指标体系,利用2009—2018年石羊河流域相关统计数据,运用模糊系统分析法和BP神经网络模型法,多层面多角度解析石羊河流域的水生态安全驱动机制。结果表明：（1）当年降水变化、单位面积牲畜头数、生态环境用水量占总用水量比例、雨水利用量、径污比是水生态安全的主要影响因子;（2）对水生态安全的影响程度排序为：资源子系统≥社会子系统>经济子系统>环境子系统>生态子系统,响应子系统>压力子系统>状态子系统,资源子系统和压力子系统是主要驱动力来源;（3） 2019—2023年,压力子系统和环境子系统将是主要驱动力来源;（4）近10 a,水生态安全整体状况较差,始终处于Ⅰ级区（较差）和Ⅱ级区（一般）。

关键词: 复合生态系统, 模糊系统分析, BP神经网络, 水生态安全, 石羊河流域

Abstract:

The water ecological security evaluation index system was constructed based on the complex ecosystem (social-economic-compound ecological system and pressure-state-response model) concept. From 2009 to 2018, the statistical data of Shiyang River Basin were used. The fuzzy system analysis method and BP neural network model were used to analyze the many aspects of the driving mechanism of water ecological security in the Shiyang River Basin. The results showed that the precipitation change, livestock, ratio of ecological environment water consumption per unit area to total water use, rainwater utilization, and diameter fouling were the main influencing factors of water ecological security in the river basin during the study period. From the W-SENCE system view, the current influence degree of water ecological security were ranked as follows: resources subsystem≥social subsystem>economic subsystem>environment subsystem>ecological subsystem; from the PSR system view: response subsystem>pressure subsystem>status subsystem; the resources and pressure subsystems were the main driving force of water ecological security from 2009 to 2018. The pressure and environment subsystems were the main driving force of water ecological security from 2019 to 2023. In the last ten years, water ecological security of the Shiyang River Basin was still in the levelⅠarea (poor) and levelⅡ area (in general). Overall, the situation was poor.

Key words: compound ecosystem, fuzzy system analysis, BP neural network, water ecological security, Shiyang River Basin

戴文渊,郭武,郑志祥,陈亦晨,张芮,许勇. 石羊河流域水生态安全影响因子及驱动机制研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(5): 1555-1563.

DAI Wenyuan,GUO Wu,ZHENG Zhixiang,CHEN Yichen,ZHANG Rui,XU Yong. Water ecological security influence factor and driving mechanism research in Shiyang River Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(5): 1555-1563.

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年份	真实值	预测值	误差	误差率
2013	0.2250	0.2152	-0.01	0.0000
2014	0.2286	0.2301	0.00	0.0065
2015	0.2220	0.2239	0.00	0.0087
2016	0.0991	0.0926	-0.01	-0.0662
2017	0.0529	0.0580	0.01	0.0962
2018	0.0284	0.0435	0.02	0.5345

石羊河流域水生态安全影响因子及驱动机制研究

Water ecological security influence factor and driving mechanism research in Shiyang River Basin

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