基于PLUS-SD耦合模型的黑河流域中游甘临高地区土地利用研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.04.25

干旱区研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 1246-1258.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.04.25

基于PLUS-SD耦合模型的黑河流域中游甘临高地区土地利用研究

蒋小芳^1,²(),段翰晨^1,³,廖杰^1,³,宋翔^1,³,薛娴^1,³()

1.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院沙漠与沙漠化重点实验室,甘肃兰州 730000
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
3.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区盐渍化研究站,甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2021-12-06 修回日期:2022-03-23 出版日期:2022-07-15 发布日期:2022-09-26
通讯作者: 薛娴
作者简介:蒋小芳（1991-）,女,博士研究生,主要从事干旱区遥感研究. E-mail: 1695090635@qq.com
基金资助:
内蒙古自治区科技重大专项项目(2019ZD00301-01);中央引导地方科技发展专项项目“基于荒漠化防治与可持续生计的阿拉善沙产业开发模式和示范”

Land use in the Gan-Lin-Gao region of middle reaches of Heihe River Basin based on a PLUS-SD coupling model

JIANG Xiaofang^1,²(),DUAN Hanchen^1,³,LIAO Jie^1,³,SONG Xiang^1,³,XUE Xian^1,³()

1. Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Drylands Salinization Research Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China

Received:2021-12-06 Revised:2022-03-23 Online:2022-07-15 Published:2022-09-26
Contact: Xian XUE

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用/覆被变化（Land Use and Cover Change,LUCC）是全球环境变化的重要组成部分。数量-空间耦合模型因能有效模拟土地利用斑块数量及其在空间上的快速变化,成为近年来土地利用研究的主要手段。本研究首先对比斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型（Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model,PLUS）、未来土地利用模型（Future Land Use Simulation Model,FLUS）和小尺度土地利用变化及其空间效益模型（Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at Small Regional Extent,CLUE-S）模拟2015年黑河流域中游甘临高地区（张掖市甘州区、临泽县和高台县）土地利用结构,筛选出最适合研究区的空间模拟模型;然后将其与系统动力学模型（System Dynamics,SD）进行耦合,形成数量-空间耦合模型;最后利用耦合模型预测2030年研究区在经济发展（Economic Development,ED）、生态保护（Ecological Protection,EP）和协调发展（Harmonious Development,HD）情景下的土地利用结构,并进行对比评价。研究结果表明：（1）在同一像元尺度下,PLUS模型的质量系数（Figure of Merit,FoM）高于FLUS和CLUE-S模型,且3个模型的数量Kappa系数（K_no）和位置Kappa系数（K_location）从高至低为：PLUS、CLUE-S和FLUS模型,说明PLUS模型在本研究区的空间拟合效果最优;（2） PLUS-SD耦合模型预测的不同情景表明,ED情景中建设用地和耕地迅速扩张但森林覆盖率较低,EP情景中的森林覆盖率明显提高,但经济发展水平偏低,HD情景中城市化水平提高的同时生态环境呈良性发展。本研究验证了PLUS-SD耦合模型的显著优势,凸显了PLUS模型有效的土地利用空间模拟能力与SD模型强大的数据处理功能。该结果可为土地规划政策的制定提供参考。

关键词: 黑河流域中游, 耦合模型, 土地利用/覆被变化, 情景预测

Abstract:

A quantity-space coupling model can effectively simulate the number of land-use patches and their rapid spatial changes. Thus, this model has become the main method of land use research in recent years. This research first compared the simulated land-use structure of the patch-generating land-use simulation model (PLUS), future land-use simulation model (FLUS), and conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) in the Gan-Lin-Gao region (Ganzhou District, Linze County and Gaotai County of Zhangye City) of the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin in 2015. In addition, this research selected the suitable spatial simulation model for the study area; then, it was coupled with the system dynamics model (SD) to form a quantitative-spatial coupling model. Finally, the coupling model was used to predict the land-use structure of the economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and harmonious development (HD) scenarios, and comparative evaluation was conducted. The research results showed that (1) at the same pixel scale, the figure of merit of the PLUS model was higher than that of the FLUS and CLUE-S models, and the K_no and K_location of the three models were PLUS, CLUE-S, and FLUS from high to low, indicating that the PLUS model had the best spatial fitting effect in this study area. (2) Moreover, the different scenarios predicted by the PLUS-SD coupling model showed that the construction land and arable land in the ED scenario expanded rapidly, but the forest coverage rate was low. Furthermore, the forest coverage rate in the EP scenario increased significantly, but the level of ED was low, and the urbanization in the HD scenario improved when the ecological environment was gradually developing. This research determined the significant advantages of the PLUS-SD coupling model and highlighted the effective land-use spatial simulation capabilities of the PLUS model and powerful data processing capabilities of the SD model. The results can provide reference for the formulation of land planning policies.

Key words: the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, coupling model, land use/cover change, scenario prediction

蒋小芳,段翰晨,廖杰,宋翔,薛娴. 基于PLUS-SD耦合模型的黑河流域中游甘临高地区土地利用研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(4): 1246-1258.

JIANG Xiaofang,DUAN Hanchen,LIAO Jie,SONG Xiang,XUE Xian. Land use in the Gan-Lin-Gao region of middle reaches of Heihe River Basin based on a PLUS-SD coupling model[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(4): 1246-1258.

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类型	数据	分辨率	来源
土地利用数据	土地利用数据（2000年、2015年）	30 m	http://www.resdc.cn
自然环境数据	年均气温（2015年）	1 km
	年均降水（2015年）	1 km
	高程	30 m
	坡度	30 m
	坡向	30 m
社会经济数据	人口（2015年）	1 km
	GDP（2015年）	1 km
	像元与道路的距离数据	30 m
	像元与河流的距离数据	30 m
	像元与居民点的距离数据	30 m

检验	耕地	林地	草地	水域	城市建设用地	农村建设用地	未利用地
历史值（2015年）	217147	11625	149341	24752	6974	15450	642389
模拟值（2015年）	215784	11554	149322	24695	6938	14736	644650
相对误差/%	0.63	0.61	0.01	0.23	0.51	4.62	0.35

变量	人口增长率/‰	GDP增长率/％	年降雨变化/（mm·a^-1）	年均温变化/（℃·a^-1）	技术系数	城镇化率
HD情景	6	12	0.350	0.020	400	43%线性增至61.8%
ED情景	10	14	0.550	0.030	500	43%线性增至65%
EP情景	4	9	0.15	0.010	500	43%线性增至60%

分辨率/m	耕地	林地	草地	水域	城市建设用地	农村建设用地	未利用地
30	0.731	0.566	0.57	0.509	0.569	0.684	0.758
50	0.935	0.696	0.737	0.722	0.915	0.834	0.893
100	0.935	0.698	0.729	0.728	0.867	0.832	0.892
200	0.935	0.68	0.738	0.72	0.928	0.833	0.892

景观指数	PLUS（50 m）	FLUS（50 m）	CLUE-S（50 m）	实际（50 m）
NP （Number of patches）	7122.00a	20303.00c	11957.00b	4182.00
LPI （Largest patch index）/%	43.48c	52.71a	53.06b	50.89
PARA_MN （Mean perimeter-area ratio）	456.47a	613.45c	536.94b	231.18
PARA_AM （Area-weighted mean perimeter-area ratio）	36.94b	63.30c	36.17a	33.58
PARA_MD （Median perimeter-area ratio）	366.67a	640.00c	600.00b	222.22
PARA_RA （Perimeter-area ratio range）	790.01a	776.04c	790.70b	789.71
PARA_SD （Perimeter-area ratio standard deviation）	266.51c	206.07a	250.83b	123.03
PARA_CV （Perimeter-area ratio coefficient of variation）	58.38a	33.59c	46.72b	53.22
ENN_MN （Mean euclidean nearest neighbor distance）/m	276.76a	150.13c	233.80b	464.08
ENN_AM （Area-weighted mean euclidean nearest neighbor distance）/m	183.61b	146.66a	131.66c	159.72
ENN_MD （Median euclidean nearest neighbor distance）/m	141.42a	111.80c	141.42a	223.61
ENN_RA （Euclidean nearest neighbor distance range）/m	26382.45a	20753.12c	24047.88b	34894.36
ENN_SD （Euclidean nearest neighbor distance standard deviation）/m	751.54a	320.79c	516.44b	1087.47
ENN_CV （Euclidean nearest neighbor distance coefficient of variation）/m	271.55c	213.68b	220.89a	234.33
PLADJ （Percentage of like adjacencies）/%	95.38b	92.09c	95.48a	95.80
Sim	0.64	0.21	0.46

基于PLUS-SD耦合模型的黑河流域中游甘临高地区土地利用研究

Land use in the Gan-Lin-Gao region of middle reaches of Heihe River Basin based on a PLUS-SD coupling model

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类型	2015年	SD模型(2030年)
类型	2015年	ED情景	EP情景	HD情景
耕地	217147	261740	203469	225155
林地	11625	7958	14747	12165
草地	149341	137645	152568	146553
水域	24752	28097	25413	26704
城市建设用地	6974	14253	12070	13166
农村建设用地	15450	14732	14845	14690
未利用地	642389	603253	644568	629247

情景	2015年/2030年	耕地	林地	草地	水域	城市建设用地	农村建设用地	未利用地	总计
ED情景	耕地	215340	18	272	239	292	0	987	217147
	林地	2803	7648	421	112	68	0	573	11625
	草地	6215	82	134401	435	283	0	7924	149341
	水域	2825	27	718	17973	150	0	3059	24752
	城市建设用地	414	7	16	5	6430	0	103	6974
	农村建设用地	708	0	0	1	9	14732	0	15450
	未利用地	33435	175	1818	9332	7022	0	590606	642389
	总计	261740	7958	137645	28097	14253	14732	603253	1067678
EP情景	耕地	184921	6293	11703	2506	1943	26	9754	217147
	林地	1341	6718	2020	150	106	0	1289	11625
	草地	4176	730	121801	1467	747	0	20419	149341
	水域	1271	112	1856	18428	99	1	2985	24752
	城市建设用地	246	32	94	5	6354	1	242	6974
	农村建设用地	491	9	19	5	50	14813	64	15450
	未利用地	11022	854	15074	2851	2770	3	609815	642389
	总计	203469	14747	152568	25413	12070	14845	644568	1067678
HD情景	耕地	217015	2	4	17	25	0	83	217147
	林地	139	10715	11	133	54	0	572	11625
	草地	2181	48	146489	188	94	0	341	149341
	水域	176	60	17	21684	118	0	2697	24752
	城市建设用地	22	6	1	1	6874	0	70	6974
	农村建设用地	748	1	0	1	12	14690	0	15450
	未利用地	4874	1334	31	4679	5989	0	625483	642389
	总计	225155	12165	146553	26704	13166	14690	629247	1067678

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