耦合融雪的新安江模型在干旱区径流模拟研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.02.05

干旱区研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (2): 379-387.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.02.05

耦合融雪的新安江模型在干旱区径流模拟研究

张梅洁^1,²(),吕海深^1,²(),刘娣^1,²,朱永华^1,²,孙铭悦^1,²

1.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京 210098
2.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京 210098

收稿日期:2021-08-18 修回日期:2021-10-08 出版日期:2022-03-15 发布日期:2022-03-30
通讯作者: 吕海深
作者简介:张梅洁（1996-）,女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源的研究. E-mail: zmj9610@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510504);国家自然科学基金项目(41830752);国家自然科学基金项目(42071033)

Runoff simulation in an arid area using the Xin’anjiang model coupled with snowmelt

ZHANG Meijie^1,²(),LYU Haishen^1,²(),LIU Di^1,²,ZHU Yonghua^1,²,SUN Mingyue^1,²

1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
2. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China

Received:2021-08-18 Revised:2021-10-08 Online:2022-03-15 Published:2022-03-30
Contact: Haishen LYU

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在西营河九条岭站以上流域内,利用2011—2018年格点降水和气温数据集的逐日资料,通过降水径流成因关系探索出格点降水异常点修正方法,并将融雪模块与三水源新安江模型耦合,研究流域日径流模拟过程。采用确定性系数和相对误差两个评估准则进行模拟效果的评价,将降水修正后以及融雪耦合后的模拟效果与未改进的模型模拟效果进行比较,分析融雪模块耦合后的新安江模型在西营河流域的适用性。结果表明：参照降水径流成因关系进行的格点降水修正提高了径流模拟的精度,75%的年份模拟径流的确定性系数有所提高。耦合融雪的新安江模型在研究区模拟较好,75%以上年份的模拟比未改进时模拟效果好,87%以上年份的模拟确定性系数达0.6以上。耦合融雪的新安江模型为西营河流域融雪径流的预报预警提供决策参考。

关键词: 西营河流域, 格点降水, 融雪模块, 改进的新安江模型

Abstract:

Using datasets of the daily grid-based precipitation and temperature from 2011 to 2018 in the upstream research area of Jiutiaoling hydrological station in the Xiying River Basin, we simulated the daily runoff process in the study basin. We propose a new method for the identification and correction of abnormal grid precipitation, which is based on the relationship between precipitation and runoff. Moreover, we created a combination of the snowmelt module and the three water source model of the Xin’anjiang model, then analyzed the applicability of the Xin’anjiang model coupled with the snowmelt module in the Xiying River Basin. Two evaluation criteria, deterministic coefficient and relative error, were used to evaluate the simulation results. The simulation results, after precipitation correction and considering snowmelt, were compared with those without precipitation correction or snowmelt consideration. The correction of grid precipitation data, based on the relationship between precipitation and runoff, improved the accuracy of the runoff simulation, and produced an improved simulation certainty coefficient in 75% of the years. The Xin’anjiang model with a snowmelt module produced a better simulation of the Xiying River Basin than that without a snowmelt module in 75% of the years. Additionally, the simulated certainty coefficient was above 0.6 for more than 87% of the years. This study can act as a reference for the application of the model in the Xiying River Basin.

Key words: Xiying River Basin, grid precipitation data, snowmelt module, improved Xin’anjiang model;

张梅洁,吕海深,刘娣,朱永华,孙铭悦. 耦合融雪的新安江模型在干旱区径流模拟研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(2): 379-387.

ZHANG Meijie,LYU Haishen,LIU Di,ZHU Yonghua,SUN Mingyue. Runoff simulation in an arid area using the Xin’anjiang model coupled with snowmelt[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(2): 379-387.

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年份	降水量/mm	实测径流深 /mm	相对误差/%			确定性系数
年份	降水量/mm	实测径流深 /mm	新安江模型	融雪模块融合后新安江模型	格点降水修正后的改进新安江模型	新安江模型	融雪模块融合后新安江模型	格点降水修正后的改进新安江模型
2011	639.7	289.61	14.0	7.8	16.1	0.68	0.64	0.69
2012	573.2	330.76	19.2	17.0	19.0	0.69	0.71	0.72
2013	495.3	233.34	23.0	0.2	23.2	0.69	0.23	0.69
2014	733.5	284.99	14.7	12.4	12.4	0.43	0.51	0.51
2015	556.5	273.28	14.3	6.0	15.2	0.56	0.65	0.61
2016	593.5	324.96	15.6	11.0	19.3	0.58	0.61	0.64
2017	664.5	341.85	14.7	2.7	17.1	0.62	0.65	0.72
2018	543.0	317.50	17.1	13.2	19.1	0.70	0.70	0.71
率定期	3591.7	1739.94	3.6	16.2	1.7	0.58	0.59	0.63
验证期	1207.5	659.35	4.0	21.0	16.2	0.67	0.69	0.72

层次	参数	参数意义	敏感性	取值范围	参数取值
融雪模块	T₀	基础温度/℃	敏感	-1.0~2.7	1.13
融雪模块	d	度日因子/(mm·℃·d^-1)	不敏感	0.5~7	0.69
蒸散发计算	KC	流域蒸散发折算系数	敏感	<1	0.08
	UM	上层张力水容量/mm	不敏感	10~50	42.3
	LM	下层张力水容量/mm	不敏感	60~90	63
	C	深层蒸散发折算系数	不敏感	0.1~0.2	0.1
产流计算	WMM	流域平均张力水容量	不敏感	70~200	117
	B	张力水蓄水容量曲线方次	不敏感	0.1~0.4	0.28
	IM	不透水面积占全流域面积的比例	不敏感	0.01~0.02	0.018
水源划分	SM	表层自由水蓄水容量/mm	敏感	10~80	69.4
	EX	表层自由水蓄水容量曲线方次	不敏感	1~1.5	1.01
	KG	表层自由水蓄水库对地下水的日出流系数	敏感	<0.7	0.3
	KI	表层自由水蓄水库对壤中流的日出流系数	不敏感	0.7-KG	0.4
汇流计算	CI	壤中流消退系数	敏感	0~0.9	0.9
	CG	地下水消退系数	不敏感	0.98~0.998	0.998
	CS	河网蓄水消退系数	敏感	0.001~1	0.69

耦合融雪的新安江模型在干旱区径流模拟研究

Runoff simulation in an arid area using the Xin’anjiang model coupled with snowmelt

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