日降雪； 降雪量； 降雪频率； 贡献率； 周期变化； 阿勒泰；新疆," /> 日降雪； 降雪量； 降雪频率； 贡献率； 周期变化； 阿勒泰；新疆,"/> daily snowfall,snowfall,snowfall frequency,contribution rate,periodical climate change,Altay Prefecture,Xinjiang,"/> 新疆阿勒泰地区冬季日降雪特性指标变化分析
干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 463-471.

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆阿勒泰地区冬季日降雪特性指标变化分析

庄晓翠1，田忠锋1，李博渊2   

  1. 1.新疆阿勒泰地区气象局，新疆 阿勒泰 836500； 2.新疆青河县气象局，新疆青河 836200
  • 收稿日期:2013-01-23 修回日期:2013-03-21 出版日期:2014-05-15 发布日期:2014-05-30
  • 作者简介:庄晓翠（1964-），女，本科，高级工程师，从事天气预报、气候变化及其相关的研究工作.E-mail: zxcxjalt@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    科技部公益性行业（气象）科研专项“新疆北部致灾暴雪成因分析和预报技术研究”（GYHY201106007）；气候变化对西北干旱区水循环影响机理与水资源安全研究（2010 CB951001）

Change of Characteristic Index of Daily Snowfall in Winter  in Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang

ZHUANG Xiao-cui1, TIAN Zhong-feng1, LI Bo-yuan2   

  1. 1. Altay Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Altay 836500, Xinjiang, China;
    2. Qinghe County Meteorological Bureau, Qinghe 836200, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2013-01-23 Revised:2013-03-21 Published:2014-05-15 Online:2014-05-30

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31

摘要： 基于新疆阿勒泰地区7个观测站1961—2011年冬季逐日降雪量资料，定义了日降雪特性指标:3个级别的降雪频率及贡献率，运用线性趋势、Cubic函数、Morlet小波变换、R/S分析等方法，研究该区冬季日降雪特性指标的气候变化特征。结果表明：阿勒泰地区及各站冬季降雪量与日降雪特性指标均呈显著正相关；日降雪特性指标、冬季降雪量都有明显的年代际变化特征，长期变化趋势均呈显著的线性增多趋势，小雪频率及贡献率最大；小雪频率是大到暴雪频率的近20倍；各站阿勒泰站中雪和大到暴雪频率及贡献率、富蕴站和青河站大到暴雪频率及贡献率、其他站日降雪特性指标对冬季降雪量的影响均显著。Cubic函数拟合表明，小雪频率、贡献率在20世纪90年代中后期发生了由多到少的转型；中雪、大到暴雪频率及其贡献率基本呈单调上升趋势；各站大到暴雪频率、贡献率与全区的基本一致。阿勒泰地区冬季大到暴雪频率及贡献率的变化是造成该地区冬季降雪量发生变化的内在因素；福海站是小雪频率及贡献率变化，其他站是大到暴雪频率及贡献率变化是造成冬季降雪量变化的内在因素。Morlet小波分析表明，日降雪特性指标存在显著的年代际和年际周期变化。R/S分析表明，未来该地区日降雪特性指标呈逐渐减少趋势，尤其是中雪频率和贡献率。

关键词: font-size: 10.5pt, mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体, mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt, mso-ansi-language: EN-US, mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN, 日降雪； 降雪量； 降雪频率； 贡献率； 周期变化； 阿勒泰；新疆')">mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">日降雪； 降雪量； 降雪频率； 贡献率； 周期变化； 阿勒泰；新疆

Abstract: After analyzing the data of daily snowfall at 7 observation stations in Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang in winter during the period of 1961-2011, in this paper the linear trend method, Cubic function, Morlet wavelet transform and R/S analysis were used to study climate change in the study area. The results are as follows: There was a significant positive correlation between winter snowfall and daily snowfall at the Altay and other stations, and also an obvious decadal change of daily snowfall and winter snowfall. Snowfall was in a linear increase trend in long term, in which the frequency and contribution rate of slight snowfall were the highest, and the frequency of slight snowfall was about 20 times of heavy snowfall. The effects of heavy snowfall on winter snowfall was significant at all the observation stations. Cubic function fitting revealed that slight snowfall frequency and its contribution rate were decreased from the 1990s, but the occurring frequency and contribution rate of heavy snowfall was in an increase trend. Morlet wavelet analysis revealed that there were the decadal and annual changes of daily snowfall. R/S analysis revealed that the daily snowfall in the study area will in a gradual decrease trend in the future, especially the snowfall frequency and its contribution rate.

Key words: font-size: 10.5pt, mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体, mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt, mso-ansi-language: EN-US, mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN, daily snowfall')">mso-bidi-language: AR-SA" lang="EN-US">daily snowfall, snowfall, snowfall frequency, contribution rate, periodical climate change, Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang