面板数据； ,灰色关联分析； ,产业碳排放； 影响因素； 西北5省," /> 面板数据； ,灰色关联分析； ,产业碳排放； 影响因素； 西北5省,"/> 产业碳排放与影响因素的关联度——基于西北5省面板数据的实证分析
干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 424-430.

• 生态系统保护与修复 • 上一篇    下一篇

产业碳排放与影响因素的关联度——基于西北5省面板数据的实证分析

张艳芳，栗新巧   

  1. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西 西安 710062
  • 收稿日期:2012-12-27 修回日期:2013-03-11 出版日期:2014-05-15 发布日期:2014-05-30
  • 作者简介:张艳芳(1969-)，女，博士，副教授，研究方向为水土资源评价、生态安全与GIS. E-mail: zhangyf@snnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(10XJA790011)；陕西师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(Supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities)(GK201302031)；国家自然科学基金项目(41371523)；陕西省社会科学基金项目(10E126)

Correlation between Industrial Carbon Emission and Its Affecting Factors—A Study Based on Empirical Analysis of Panel Data from the Five Provinces and Autonomous Regions in Northwest China  

ZHANG Yan-fang, LI Xin-qiao   

  1. College of Tourism and Environment Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China
  • Received:2012-12-27 Revised:2013-03-11 Published:2014-05-15 Online:2014-05-30

PDF (PC)

984

赞

摘要： 运用西北5省1999—2010年的面板数据，计算产业碳排放量，采用灰色关联度模型，分析影响因素与产业碳排放量之间的关联程度。结果显示：① 从总量来看，1999—2010年西北5省产业碳排放量呈现波动增加的趋势，陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆的碳排放量分别从1999年的3.22×107 t、3.05×107 t、7.80×106 t、1.12×107 t和3.02×107 t增加到2010年的1.24×108 t、6.86×107 t、 2.15×107 t、5.76×107 t和9.29×107 t，从2008年起，陕西省的碳排放量开始高于全国平均值。从人均碳排放量来看，也呈现出波动增加趋势，宁夏的人均碳排放量在不同年份均高于其他4省。② 从空间来看，西北5省之间的产业碳排放量存在内部差异，其排序为：陕西＞新疆＞甘肃＞宁夏＞青海。③ 西北5省产业碳排放量与影响因素之间的关联度有某种相似之处，共同表现出：经济效应＞人口效应＞结构效应＞技术效应。④ 不同影响因素对产业碳排放量的关联度存在省际之间的差异，人口效应表现为：宁夏＞甘肃＞新疆＞青海＞陕西，经济效应表现为：新疆＞宁夏＞青海＞陕西＞甘肃，结构效应表现为：甘肃＞宁夏＞青海＞新疆＞陕西，技术效应表现为：宁夏＞青海＞新疆＞陕西＞甘肃。  

关键词: 面板数据； ')">面板数据； , 灰色关联分析； , 产业碳排放； 影响因素； 西北5省

Abstract: The global environment problems caused by carbon emission attract more and more attention all over the world, the study on regional industrial carbon emission can provide the theoretical basis to the countries for saving energy, reducing carbon emission and exploring lowcarbon development path. In this paper, the relationships between the industrial carbon emission and its affecting factors were analyzed using the grey correlation model based on the panel data from the five provinces and autonomous regions in northwest China during the period of 19992010, which included the data of energy consumption, GDP, population, and calculated industrial carbon emission. The results are as follows: ① From the viewpoint of total energy consumption, the industrial carbon emission in the five provinces and autonomous regions in northwest China was in an increase trend in a fluctuation way. The carbon emissions in Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang were increased from 3.22×107 t, 3.05×107 t, 7.80×106 t, 1.12×107 t and 3.02×107 t in 1999 to 1.24×108 t, 6.86×107 t, 2.15×107 t, 5.76×107 t and 9.29×107 t in 2010, respectively. The carbon emission in Shaanxi was higher than the national average from 2008. The per capita carbon emissions in Gansu in different years were higher than those of other four provinces; ② Spatially, the industrial carbon emission was in an order of Shaanxi>Xinjiang>Gansu>Ningxia>Qinghai; ③ There was a certain correlation between the industrial carbon emission and the affecting factors in the five provinces and autonomous regions in northwest China, and it was in an order of economic effect>population effect>structure effect>technical effect; ④ The correlation values between the industrial carbon emission and the affecting factors were different from different provinces and autonomous regions: the population effect was in an order of Ningxia>Gansu>Xinjiang>Qinghai>Shaanxi, the economic effect was in an order of Xinjiang>Ningxia>Qinghai>Shaanxi>Gansu, the structure effect was in an order of Gansu>Ningxia>Qinghai>Xinjiang>Shaanxi, and the technical effect was in an order of Ningxia>Qinghai>Xinjiang>Shaanxi>Gansu.

Key words: