干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 274-278.

• 气候及气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

塔里木河流域旱灾发生规律

木沙·如孜1,2，雷晓云1 ，2 ，王芹芹1   

  1. （1. 新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052； 2. 新疆水利水电科学研究院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830049）
  • 收稿日期:2012-12-13 修回日期:2013-01-16 出版日期:2014-03-11 发布日期:2014-04-25
  • 作者简介:木沙·如孜（1985-），男，维吾尔族，在读硕士研究生，主要从事农业抗旱减灾研究. Email： 545796230@qq.com
  • 基金资助:

    自治区科技支撑项目“新疆农业干旱减灾成因及风险评估研究”（201331104）；国家自然科学基金项目（U1178301）；新疆维吾尔自治区水文学及水资源重点学科基金资助

Historical Drought Disasters Occurred in the Tarim River Basin

  • Received:2012-12-13 Revised:2013-01-16 Published:2014-03-11 Online:2014-04-25

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摘要： 通过1949—2010年塔里木河流域干旱灾害资料，研究了塔里木河流域干旱灾害的频次和旱情，采用波谱分析方法进行了周期分析。结果表明：1949—2010年，塔里木河流域有记载的干旱灾害共59次，平均每1.04 a发生1次。在59次的灾害中，特大旱灾、重大旱灾、中度旱灾、轻度旱灾分别为10次、25次、11次、13次，分别占16.96%、42.37%、18.64 %和22.04%，3级以上大旱灾共发生35次，平均每1.75 a发生1次，占干旱灾害发生年总数的59.32%。塔里木河流域1990—2010年受旱率超过20% 的有14 a，受旱率和成灾率最高的年份为1993年，分别为37.5%和17.3%。受旱率超过 25%、成灾率超过15%的有3 a，分别是1993、2001年和2002年，平均7 a一遇；每5 a不同级别平均受旱面积依次为2.65×105、2.22×105、3.23×105 hm2和3.53×105 hm2; 平均成灾面积分别为1.22×105、1.05×105、1.78×105hm2和2.31×105hm2。塔里木河流域在1950—2010年存在准2 a、准3 a、准6 a、准13 a的周期，且准2 a、准3 a的周期相当显著，置信度分别达99%和95%。

Abstract: After carrying out the disposal of historical data of drought disasters occurred in the Tarim River Basin during the period of 1949-2010, the drought frequency, serious degree and period in the drainage basin were analyzed using the spectrum analysis and cycle analysis. The results showed that 59 times of drought disasters were totally recorded in the drainage basin from 1949 to 2010, in which the severe drought, serious drought, moderate drought and slight drought were 10 times, 25 times, 11 times and 13 times, and their proportions were 16.96%, 42.37%, 18.64%, 22.04%, respectively. The droughts over level Ⅲ occurred 35 times, and they occurred once every 1.75 years and accounted for 59.32% of the total drought disaster years. The drought disaster rate over 20% occurred in 14 years in the Tarim River Basin during the period of 1990-2010, the drought occurrence rate and drought disaster rate were the highest in 1993, and they were 37.5% and 17.3% respectively. The drought occurrence rate over 25% and drought disaster rate over 15% occurred in 3 years in 1993, 2001 and 2002 respectively, and they occurred once every 7 years. The average areas suffering from drought at different levels and occurred every 5 years were 2.65×105, 2.22×105, 3.23×105 hm2 and 3.53×105 hm2, and the average disaster areas were 1.22×105, 1.05×105, 1.78×105 hm2 and 2.31×105 hm2, respectively. There were the 2year, 3year, 6year and 13year quasiperiods of drought in the Tarim River Basin during the period of 1950-2010 years, especially the 2year and 3year ones were very significant, and their confidences were as high as 99% and 95% respectively.