干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3): 409-419.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.03.02 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250302

• 天气与气候 • 上一篇    下一篇

内蒙古大兴安岭飞机冷云增雨潜势预报模型

衣娜娜1(), 毕力格1(), 史金丽1, 蔡敏1, 许志丽1, 郑凤杰1, 丽娜2   

  1. 1.内蒙古自治区人工影响天气中心，内蒙古 呼和浩特 010051
    2.内蒙古师范大学，内蒙古 呼和浩特 010051
  • 收稿日期:2024-09-04 修回日期:2024-11-07 出版日期:2025-03-15 发布日期:2025-03-17
  • 通讯作者: 毕力格. E-mail: dongzhl89@163.com
  • 作者简介:衣娜娜（1989-），女，工程师，硕士研究生，主要从事云降水物理、模式研究和人工影响天气. E-mail: yinndongzhl@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2022YFSH0132);内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2022YFSH0009);内蒙古自治区科技成果转化专项资金项目(2021CG0047);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2022LHMS04003);内蒙古自治区气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx202468)

Model for predicting potential for aircraft cold cloud precipitation enhancement in Da Xing’ anling Mountains in Inner Mongolia

YI Nana1(), Bilige 1(), SHI Jinli1, CAI Min1, XU Zhili1, ZHENG Fengjie1, Lina 2   

  1. 1. Weather Modification Center of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot 010051, Inner Mongolia, China
    2. Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010051, Inner Mongolia, China
  • Received:2024-09-04 Revised:2024-11-07 Published:2025-03-15 Online:2025-03-17

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摘要： 大兴安岭对于维持区域生态平衡和生态安全有着不可估量的重要意义，但也是重点火险区之一，建立大兴安岭飞机冷云增雨潜势预报模型，为大兴安岭人工增雨防灭火精准作业提供重要的技术支撑。本文利用2017—2020年、2023年人影飞机观测的小云粒子与大云粒子数浓度，将增雨潜势分成强可播、可播、不可播三类。基于ERA5再分析数据探讨三类增雨潜势样本的环境参量。结果表明：750 hPa相对湿度指标值为79.1%和95.6%，即不可播样本相对湿度小于79.1%，强可播样本相对湿度大于95.6%，可播样本相对湿度值介于二者之间。700 hPa温度露点差指标值为0.3 ℃和2.4 ℃，650 hPa垂直速度指标值为0.7 Pa·s-1和-0.06 Pa·s-1，650 hPa、700 hPa液态水指标值为0.01 g·kg-1和0.08 g·kg-1，850 hPa雨水混合比指标值为0.01 g·kg-1和0.07 g·kg-1，垂直累积过冷水指标值为0.5 mm和2.2 mm，以上环境参量的指标值对三类增雨潜势样本判别的准确率均超过60%。综合考虑环境参量指标值对三类样本判别的准确率及各参量间的共线性关系，最终选取四个环境参量，利用Fisher和Bayes方法建立两种增雨潜势预报模型，两种模型对训练集平均识别率88.6%，测试集平均识别率98.6%，为人工影响天气实施科学作业、精准作业提供有力的技术支撑。

关键词: 人工影响天气, 内蒙古大兴安岭, 环境参量, 预报模型

Abstract:

Da Xing’anling Mountains was of immeasurable significance in maintaining regional ecological balance and ecological security. However, it was also one of the key fire risk areas. The prediction model of aircraft cold cloud precipitation enhancement potential was established to provide important technical support for the precise operation of artificial rain enhancement for fire prevention and extinguishing in the Daxing’an Mountains. Based on the number concentrations of small and large cloud particles observed by aircraft from 2017 to 2020 and 2023, the potential for enhancing precipitation was divided into three categories: strongly seedable, seedable, and not seedable. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis data, the environmental parameters of the three types of precipitation enhancement potential samples were discussed, and the results showed that the relative humidity values of 750 hPa were 79.1% and 95.6%, that is, the relative humidity of the not seedable sample was less than 79.1%, and the relative humidity of the strongly seedable sample was greater than 95.6%, and the relative humidity value of the seedable sample was between the two. The dew point temperature differences at 700 hPa were 0.3 ℃ and 2.4 ℃, the vertical velocities at 650 hPa were 0.7 and -0.06 Pa·s-1, the liquid water contents at 650 and 700 hPa were 0.01 and 0.08 g·kg-1, the rainwater mixing ratios at 850 hPa were 0.01 and 0.07 g·kg-1, and the vertical cumulative supercooled water was 0.5 and 2.2 mm. Considering the accuracy with which the three samples could be distinguished using the environmental parameter thresholds and the collinearity relationships between the parameters, four environmental parameters were finally selected, and two model for predicting the potential to enhance precipitation were established using the Fisher and Bayes methods. The average recognition rate of the two models was 88.6% for the training set and 98.6% for the test set, providing strong support for the implementation of scientific and accurate weather modification operations.

Key words: weather modification, Da Xing’ anling Mountains in Inner Mongolia, environmental parameters, forecasting models