关键词: 节水灌溉, 农户行为, 多项Logit模型, 决策树模型, 张北县, 河北

Abstract: In relation to drought and water shortage in North China,watersaving irrigation is considered an effective measure for reducing the use of agricultural water.Over the recent years,the Chinese government has increased its investment in agricultural watersaving technologies in this region.However,owing to a lack of understanding of the determinants relating to their adoption,the use of watersaving technologies has been significantly constrained.Based on survey data from Zhangbei County,Hebei Province,this paper studies these determinants,including the characteristics of lands and peasants,and social factors,of different irrigation modes using multiplelogit and decisiontree models.In terms of the influencing factors relating to farmers’ choices of irrigation method in arid areas,the results estimated using the multiplelogit and decisiontree models are highly consistent.Both models indicate that government support is a key factor in terms of farmers choosing modern communitybased watersaving technologies;this is followed by block area and scale of household irrigation.In addition,farmers’ age and education level,soil type,and the choice of irrigation methods also have important influences,whereas the water supply and demand conditions perceived by farmers are insignificant.In terms of the factors influencing the degree by which farmers adopt modern communitybased watersaving technologies in arid areas,the following observation were noted:(1) when the soil type is loam,the proportion of modern communitybased irrigation technologies is significantly lower than that when the soil is sandy;(2) for farmers,the older they are and the lower their level of education is,the more they adopt modern communitybased irrigation technologies;(3) the higher the total household income of farmers are,the more are modern communitybased irrigation technologies utilized by them.The scale of irrigated land for farming households,whether they have been supported by the government,and the water supply and demand conditions perceived by farmers do not significantly affect the level of this type of technology adoption.To address the existing problems in the use of agricultural irrigation water and improve the efficiency of irrigation water use,the following suggestions have been provided:(1) increase funding for watersaving irrigation technology,(2) advocate for largescale agricultural production,and (3) increase farmer awareness regarding the importance of water saving.

Key words: watersaving irrigation, farmer behavior theory, MultipleLogit model, DecisionTree model, Zhangbei County, Heibei Province