干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2022 , Vol. 39 >Issue 4: 1102 - 1111

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2022.04.11

Water Resources and Utilization

Dynamic simulation and carrying capacity analysis of a water resource system in Kubuqi Desert

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  • 1. School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Water Resources Protection and Utilization of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hohhot 010010, Inner Mongolia, China

Received date: 2021-10-14

  Revised date: 2022-03-05

  Online published: 2022-09-26

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Abstract

Based on the integration of water resources and socio-economic data in the Kubuqi Desert from 1999 to 2019, this paper used the system dynamic model to simulate the water resource-society-ecological system of the Kubuqi Desert. In addition, a multi-scenario parameter control model was established to comprehensively simulate the changes in the total water demand of water resources in the region under the influence of different parameters. Results show that if no other measures are taken (conventional development mode), then the total water demand in 2035 will reach 11.90 per one hundred million cubic meters, which is greater than the total water supply in the region, showing an overload state. After adjustment for different parameter schemes, the planting area and current irrigation method remain unchanged, and the water demand is 9.76 per one hundred million cubic meters. In addition, the penetration rate of drip irrigation exceeds 50% (S3), showing a loadable state, and the water demand will drop to 7.80 per one hundred million cubic meters, which alleviates the contradiction between the supply and demand of desert water resources. Therefore, during ecological restoration of the Kubuqi Desert, emphasis should be placed on the promotion of drip irrigation to save water, rational use of local water resources, and sustainable ecological development.

Key words： water resources carrying capacity; system dynamics; desert; arid area; Kubuqi Desert

Cite this article

LU Fangyuan,JIA Debin,GAO Ruizhong,SU Wenxu,ZHAO Hang,YANG Li’na . Dynamic simulation and carrying capacity analysis of a water resource system in Kubuqi Desert[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022 , 39(4) : 1102 -1111 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.04.11

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