干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2022 , Vol. 39 >Issue 1: 292 - 300

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2022.01.28

Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of land use in semi-arid mining areas

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  • 1. Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
    2. College of Environment and Resource Sciences of Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
    3. Shanxi Laboratory for Yellow River, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China

Received date: 2021-04-14

  Revised date: 2021-06-23

  Online published: 2022-01-24

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Abstract

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is a critical factor contributing to regional land planning and ecological environmental protection. LUCCs associated with human activities, such as coal mining, have increased the tension in human-environment interactions. This study explored the spatio-temporal LUCC and its driving factors from 1985 to 2015 in the Datong mining area, which is one of the eight major coal production bases in China. Furthermore, the random forests (RF)-future land use simulation (FLUS) model was proposed to explicitly simulate the spatial trajectories of LUCCs for the year 2025. The results showed that (1) forestland, cropland, and watershed areas kept decreasing, while grasslands and construction lands kept increasing from 1985 to 2015. (2) Climate, elevation, and distance were the most influential factors for the distribution of croplands, forestlands, and grasslands, while precipitation was the most important factor for the distribution of watersheds. Coal production capacity and distance from facilities were the most influential factors for the distribution of construction lands. (3) Both the FLUS and RF-FLUS models had a good fitting accuracy, whereas the RF-FLUS models had a satisfactory kappa index and OA index. (4) Land use simulations for the year 2025 based on the RF-FLUS model indicated that croplands, forestlands, and grasslands will decrease, while construction lands will increase. This study provides a scientific reference for understanding the complex and dynamic evolution of LUCC, exploring the possibilities for the way of land resources, and promoting the sustainable development of coal mining areas.

Key words： coal mining area; land use change; model prediction; random forest model; driving factors

Cite this article

LIU Chang,ZHANG Hong,ZHANG Xiaoyu,YANG Guoting,LIU Yong . Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of land use in semi-arid mining areas[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022 , 39(1) : 292 -300 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.01.28

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