干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2021 , Vol. 38 >Issue 6: 1793 - 1804

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.31

Ecology and Environment

FLUS-Markov model-based multiscenario evaluation and prediction of the landscape ecological risk in Kezhou, South Xinjiang

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  • College of Science, Shihezi University, Corps Key Laboratory of Oasis Towns and Mountain Basin Ecosystems, Key Laboratory of Landscape Ecology in Arid Region, Shihezi 832000, Xinjiang, China

Received date: 2021-06-03

  Revised date: 2021-07-24

  Online published: 2021-11-29

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Abstract

In this study, the Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture of Kizilsu in Xinjiang was set as an example to use an FLUS-Markov composite model based on changes in the land use spatial pattern from 2005 to 2015 for predicting the land use situation in 2025. The criteria importance though intercriteria correlation weight method was applied to construct the landscape ecological risk index under the two scenarios of natural growth and ecological protection. The natural risk index was also determined. The breakpoint method was divided into five levels (from low to high): risks I-V. Risk index centroid and standard deviation ellipse are used to evaluate the spatiotemporal pattern and changes in the characteristics of landscape ecological risk in different years and multiscenarios and to explore the driving factors affecting its evolution characteristics. Results show that (1) the area covered by cultivated land, water area, and construction land is increasing under a natural growth scenario, whereas the area spanning woodland, grassland, desert, and bare land is gradually decreasing. The grassland area under the ecological protection scenario increases by 51 km2 compared with that under the natural growth scenario. (2) From 2005 to 2025, the overall landscape ecological risk of Kezhou decreased. Compared with the natural growth scenario, the areas under risks I, II, and IV in the ecological protection scenario increased by 34 km2, 1240 km2, and 66 km2, respectively, and the areas under risks III and V decreased by 695 and 645 km2, respectively. (3) From 2005 to 2025, risks I, II, IV, and V in Kezhou would be in a diffused distribution state, and risk III would be in a compact contraction state. (4) The main factors affecting the evolution of landscape ecological risk are topographic and climatic factors (interpretation over 85%). Another important driving factor is population (interpretation over 59%). The contribution of GDP to the changes in the landscape ecological risk is reduced.

Key words： land use; FLUS-Markov model; landscape ecological risk index; scenario simulation; driving force; Xinjiang

Cite this article

JIN Mengting,XU Liping,XU Quan . FLUS-Markov model-based multiscenario evaluation and prediction of the landscape ecological risk in Kezhou, South Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021 , 38(6) : 1793 -1804 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.31

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