Spatial-temporal variations of extreme precipitation indices and their response to atmospheric circulation factors in the Weihe River Basin
Received date: 2020-04-24
Revised date: 2020-12-01
Online published: 2021-06-17
Six extreme precipitation indices, including PRCPTOT, SDII, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95P, and R99P, were calculated using the daily precipitation data of 28 meteorological stations in the Weihe River Basin, from 1961 to 2017, to represent extreme precipitation characteristics. The Mann-Kendall trend and continuous wavelet tests were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation. The potential influences of anomalous atmospheric circulation factors on extreme precipitation were explored using the cross-wavelet analysis technique. From 1961 to 2017, the extreme precipitation indices showed a decreasing trend in the Weihe River Basin. The extreme precipitation indices increased from northwest to southeast, and the southeastern area of the basin was wetter than the northwest. After 1990, the inter-annual fluctuation of the extreme precipitation index increased significantly and the degree and probability of extreme flood events in the basin had an upward trend. Among the selected anomalous atmospheric circulation factors, the Southern Oscillation Index had the most significant effect on extreme precipitation. The higher the SOI value, the higher the probability of occurrence of less rain, while the smaller the SOI value, the higher the probability of more rain and flood events occurring. This study improves our understanding of the influence of climate change on extreme precipitation, and it improves our capacity to prevent climate disasters.
ZOU Lei,YU Jiangyou,WANG Feiyu,ZHANG Yan . Spatial-temporal variations of extreme precipitation indices and their response to atmospheric circulation factors in the Weihe River Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021 , 38(3) : 764 -774 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.03.18
[1] | 曾志平. 1975—2015年清远市汛期极端降水时空变化特征分析[J]. 人民珠江, 2019,40(5):50-55. |
[1] | [ Zeng Zhiping. Analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in flood season in Qingyuan during 1975-2015[J]. Pearl River, 2019,40(5):50-55. ] |
[2] | 时光训, 刘健, 马力, 等. 1970—2014年长江流域极端降水过程的时空变化研究[J]. 水文, 2017,37(4):77-85. |
[2] | [ Shi Guangxun, Liu Jian, Ma Li, et al. Spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in Yangtze River Basin during 1970-2014[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2017,37(4):77-85. ] |
[3] | 姜江, 姜大膀, 林一骅. 中国干湿区变化与预估[J]. 大气科学, 2017,41(1):43-56. |
[3] | [ Jiang Jiang, Jiang Dabang, Lin Yihua. Changes and projection of dry/wet areas over China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017,41(1):43-56. ] |
[4] | 佘敦先, 夏军, 张永勇, 等. 近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征[J]. 地理学报, 2011,66(9):1200-1210. |
[4] | [ She Dunxian, Xia Jun, Zhang Yongyong, et al. The trend analysis and statistical distribution of extreme rainfall events in the Huaihe River Basin in the past 50 years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011,66(9):1200-1210. ] |
[5] | 汪成博, 李双双, 延军平, 等. 1970—2015年汉江流域多尺度极端降水时空变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019,34(6):1209-1222. |
[5] | [ Wang Chengbo, Li Shuangshuang, Yan Junping, et al. Spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation regimes in the Hanjiang River Basin during 1970-2015[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2019,34(6):1209-1222. ] |
[6] | 马梦阳, 韩宇平, 王庆明, 等. 海河流域极端降水时空变化规律及其与大气环流的关系[J]. 水电能源科学, 2019,37(6):1-4, 74. |
[6] | [ Ma Mengyang, Han Yuping, Wang Qingming, et al. Temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation in Haihe River Basin and its relationship with atmospheric circulation indexes[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2019,37(6):1-4, 74. ] |
[7] | 杨沛羽, 张强, 史培军, 等. 黄河流域极端降水时空分布特征及其影响因素[J]. 武汉大学学报(自然科学版), 2017,63(4):368-376. |
[7] | [ Yang Peiyu, Zhang Qiang, Shi Peijun, et al. Spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation extremes and related implications across the Yellow River Basin, China[J]. Journal of Wuhan University(Natural Science Edition), 2017,63(4):368-376. ] |
[8] | 冯星, 郭建青, 孙东永, 等. 近55 a渭河流域气候变化[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018,41(4):718-725. |
[8] | [ Feng Xing, Guo Jianqing, Sun Dongyong, et al. Climate change characteristics in Weihe River Basin from 1960 to 2015[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2018,41(4):718-725. ] |
[9] | 周旗, 张海宁, 任源鑫. 1961—2016年渭河流域极端降水事件研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020,40(5):833-841. |
[9] | [ Zhou Qi, Zhang Haining, Ren Yuanxin. Extreme precipitation events in the Weihe River Basin from 1961 to 2016[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2020,40(5):833-841. ] |
[10] | 牛最荣, 赵文智, 刘进琪, 等. 甘肃渭河流域气温、降水和径流变化特征及趋势研究[J]. 水文, 2012,32(2):78-83. |
[10] | [ Niu Zuirong, Zhao Wenzhi, Liu Jinqi, et al. Study on change characteristics and tendency of temperature, precipitation and runoff in Weihe River Basin in Gansu[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2012,32(2):78-83. ] |
[11] | 张宏利, 陈豫, 任广鑫, 等. 近50年来渭河流域降水变化特征分析[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2008,26(4):236-241. |
[11] | [ Zhang Hongli, Chen Yu, Ren Guangxin, et al. The characteristics of precipitation variation of Weihe River Basin in Shaanxi Province during recent 50 years[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2008,26(4):236-241. ] |
[12] | 张艳玲. 陕西省渭河流域水文特性分析[J]. 西北水资源与水工程, 2002,13(2):62-64. |
[12] | [ Zhang Yanlin. Hydrologic feature analysis for Weihe basin in Shanxi Province[J]. Northwest Water Resources & Water Engineering, 2002,13(2):62-64. ] |
[13] | 雷江群, 刘登峰, 黄强. 渭河流域气候变化及干湿状况时空分布分析[J]. 西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版), 2015,43(3):175-181. |
[13] | [ Lei Jiangqun, Liu Dengfeng, Huang Qiang. Climate change and spatiotemporal distribution of dry-wet status in Wei River Basin[J]. Journal of Northwest A & F University (Natural Science Edition), 2015,43(3):175-181. ] |
[14] | Wilcox R R. A note on the Theil-Sen regression estimator when the regressor is random and the error term is heteroscedastic[J]. Biometrical, 1998,40(3):261-268. |
[15] | 褚健婷, 夏军, 许崇育, 等. 海河流域气象和水文降水资料对比分析及时空变异[J]. 地理学报, 2009,64(9):1083-1092. |
[15] | [ Chu Jianting, Xia Jun, Xu Chongyu, et al. Comparison and spatial-temporal variability of daily precipitation data of weather stations and rain gauges in Haihe River Basin[J]. Acta GeographicaSinica, 2009,64(9):1083-1092. ] |
[16] | Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, et al. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series[J]. Hydrological Processes 2002,16:1807-1829. |
[17] | 王霞, 吴加学. 基于小波变换的西、北江水沙关系特征分析[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2009,28(1):21-28. |
[17] | [ Wang Xia, Wu Jiaxue. Wavelet analyses of rating curves in Xijiang and Beijiang Rivers[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2009,28(1):21-28. ] |
[18] | Tan X, Gan T Y, Shao D. Wavelet analysis of precipitation extremes over Canadian ecoregions and teleconnections to large-scale climate anomalies[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2016,121:469-486. |
[19] | 陈心池, 顾立忠. 基于SPI的旱涝时空演变特征识别及其对大尺度气候因子的响应研究[J]. 广东水利水电, 2018(11):52-58, 67. |
[19] | [ Chen Xinchi, Gu Lizhong. Spatio-temporal evolutionary identification of dryness/wetness based on SPI and responses to large-scale climate factors[J]. Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower, 2018(11):52-58, 67. ] |
[20] | Grinsted A, Moore J C, Jevrejeva S. Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series[J]. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2004,11:561-566. |
[21] | Lin Q, Wu Z, Singh V P, et al. Correlation between hydrological drought, climatic factors, reservoir operation, and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin, South China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017,549:512-524. |
[22] | 许武成, 马劲松, 王文. 关于ENSO事件及其对中国气候影响研究的综述[J]. 气象科学, 2005,25(2):212-220. |
[22] | [ Xu Wucheng, Ma Jingsong, Wang Wen. A review of study on the influence of ENSO events on the climate in China[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2005,25(2):212-220. ] |
[23] | 邵骏. 基于交叉小波变换的水文多尺度相关分析[J]. 水力发电学报, 2013,32(2):22-26, 42. |
[23] | [ Shao Jun. Multi-scale correlation analysis of hydrological time series based on cross wavelet transform[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2013,32(2):22-26, 42. ] |
[24] | Song Feng, Hu Qi. Variations in the teleconnection of ENSO and summer rainfall in Northern China: A role of the indian summer monsoon[J]. Journal of Climate, 2004,17(24):4871-4881. |
[25] | 姜逢清, 杨跃辉. 新疆洪旱灾害与大尺度气候强迫因子的联系[J]. 干旱区地理, 2004,27(2):148-153. |
[25] | [ Jiang Fengqin, Yang Yuehui. Potential links of flood and drought disasters in Xinjiang to some larger-scale climatic driving forces[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2004,27(2):148-153. ] |
/
〈 | 〉 |