干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2025 , Vol. 42 >Issue 1: 154 - 165

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.14

Ecology and Environment

Spatiotemporal evolution and scenario simulation of habitat quality in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China

  • ZHANG Ying ,
  • ZHAO Yuanyuan ,
  • LIU Rulong ,
  • WANG Yue ,
  • DING Guodong
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  • 1. Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation, State Forestry Administration, School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    2. School of Resources and Environmental Economics, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, Inner Mongolia, China

Received date: 2024-07-14

  Revised date: 2024-09-18

  Online published: 2025-01-17

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Abstract

The agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is a typical ecologically vulnerable region. It is important to explore the spatiotemporal change in habitat quality for the scientific protection of the ecology and environment. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of habitat quality during the period 2000-2020, and simulated the future land use and habitat quality under various scenarios until 2040, based on the land-use data, FLUS-InVEST model, and spatial autocorrelation method. The results showed that (1) Grassland was the main land-use type in the region, accounting for more than 41% of land use. The cultivated land area accounted for more than 32% and the forest land area accounted for more than 16%. During the 2000-2020 period, the cultivated land changed the most, decreasin by 10157 km2, where the unused land changed the least with an area reduction of 771 km2. The areas of grassland and construction land had increased. (2) The habitat quality in the southeast boundary of the region was relatively high. From 2000 to 2020, the average habitat quality index changed from 0.498 to 0.494, indicating a slight decrease. The area with low habitat quality increased by 2281 km2 and that with high grade habitat increased by 1375 km2. The areas with a high degree of degradation showed a point distribution and were mainly concentrated in some construction land. (3) In 2040, the habitat quality is projected to improve in each scenario, but the habitat quality will improve the most in the ecological protection scenario. The area of high grade habitat increased by 2514 km2 relative to that in 2020. In the trend development scenario, the relatively low ecological quality area would be reduced by up to 162625 km2 relative to that in 2020. The area under cultivation, grassland, and unused land under the trend development and economic development scenarios will not change. The area of forest land under the ecological protection scenario was the largest, being 18547 km2 more than that under the trend development scenario. In light of these findings, it is suggested that in future land-use planning and ecological environmental protection, we should focus on the areas with low habitat quality in the southeast of Inner Mongolia and northern of Hebei.

Key words： habitat quality; the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China; land use; spatiotemporal pattern

Cite this article

ZHANG Ying , ZHAO Yuanyuan , LIU Rulong , WANG Yue , DING Guodong . Spatiotemporal evolution and scenario simulation of habitat quality in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025 , 42(1) : 154 -165 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.14

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