干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2024 , Vol. 41 >Issue 4: 684 - 696

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2024.04.14

Ecology and Environment

Landscape ecological risk assessment and prediction for the Yarkant River Basin, Xinjiang, China

  • SI Qi ,
  • FAN Haoran ,
  • DONG Wenming ,
  • LIU Xinping
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  • 1. School of Public Management (Faculty of Law), Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China
    2. School of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China

Received date: 2023-08-03

  Revised date: 2024-01-12

  Online published: 2024-04-26

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Abstract

Landscape ecological risk evaluation is an essential tool for measuring the safety of ecosystems within a certain range. Taking the Yarkant River Basin as the study area, we synthesized the Markov-PLUS model and the landscape ecological risk assessment index to analyze and predict the evolution characteristics of land use and landscape ecological risk and the change trends under multiple future scenarios and to delineate the risk focus management regions. The results were as follows: (1) Cultivated land, water, and impervious surface in the Yarkant River Basin increased, and woodland, grassland, and unused land decreased from 2005 to 2020. In 2035, land use under Scenario I followed the historical development pattern of change. In comparison with Scenario I, cultivated land increased and other land types decreased in Scenario II; woodland, grassland, and water increased and cultivated land, impervious surface, and unused land decreased in Scenario III. (2) From 2005 to 2035, the landscape ecological risk of the Yarkant River Basin as a whole showed an upward trend, and the spatial distribution was characterized by “low in the southwest and high in the northeast.” The risk deterioration area was mainly concentrated in the alluvial plains at lower altitudes, and the risk maintenance area was mainly distributed in the mountains and glaciers at higher altitudes. (3) In comparison with Scenarios I and II, Scenario III had a smaller average value of the landscape ecological risk index, and it was the optimal future scenario to achieve a win-win situation for both ecological protection and economic development in the Yarkant River Basin. (4) The alluvial plain in the northeastern part of the Yarkant River Basin was a stable high-risk region, the edges of the alluvial plain and the mountains in the west were risk-prone regions, and the mountains and glaciers in the south were increasing-risk lagging regions. The results of this study can provide a reference for the optimization of local landscape ecological security patterns and ecological risk prevention or reduction.

Key words： land use; landscape ecological risk; different scenarios; the Yarkant River Basin; Xinjiang

Cite this article

SI Qi , FAN Haoran , DONG Wenming , LIU Xinping . Landscape ecological risk assessment and prediction for the Yarkant River Basin, Xinjiang, China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024 , 41(4) : 684 -696 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.04.14

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