干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2023 , Vol. 40 >Issue 7: 1052 - 1064

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2023.07.03

Weather and Climate

Application of WQSRTP method in objective forecast of high and low temperature in Gansu Province

  • Jixin WANG ,
  • Qian LI ,
  • Han LI ,
  • Junxia ZHANG ,
  • Xinyu LIU
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  • 1. Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China
    2. Henan Meteorological Observatory, Zhengzhou 450003, Henan, China
    3. Jiuquan Meteorological Bureau, Jiuquan 735000, Gansu, China

Received date: 2023-03-24

  Revised date: 2023-05-19

  Online published: 2023-08-01

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Abstract

Based on the ECMWF fine grid numerical prediction product and the temperature observation data of the national assessment station, the weighted quasi-symmetric running training period method (WQSRTP) was used to generate the maximum (low) objective product of the smart grid in Gansu Province. The results were compared with the smart grid guidance forecast product (SCMOC) of China Meteorological Administration and the urban grid forecast product (SPCC) of Gansu Province. The results show that the WQSRTP correction method can significantly improve the ability to predict the 24 h maximum (low) temperature of the ECMWF fine grid numerical model, and the predictive accuracy of the 24 h maximum and minimum temperatures increased by 32.16% and 15.48%, respectively. Compared with SCMOC, SPCC, and ECMWF, the modified WQSRTP products are positive correction techniques, and the modified ability of maximum temperature is better than that of minimum temperature. According to the spatial error test, the WQSRTP correction method can effectively improve the accuracy of maximum (low) temperature forecast in the Qilian Mountains and the Southwest Mountains, and significantly reduce the mean absolute error. Moreover, the effect of correction for predicting the maximum temperature is better than that of minimum temperature.

Key words： high and low temperature forecast; correction skills; accuracy rate; Gansu

Cite this article

Jixin WANG , Qian LI , Han LI , Junxia ZHANG , Xinyu LIU . Application of WQSRTP method in objective forecast of high and low temperature in Gansu Province[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023 , 40(7) : 1052 -1064 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.07.03

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