干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2022 , Vol. 39 >Issue 5: 1588 - 1597

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.23

Land and Water Resources

Analysis of runoff variation and forecast in the upper reaches of the Shule River

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  • 1. College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
    2. Jiuquan Hydrological Station of Gansu Province, Jiayuguan 735100, Gansu, China

Received date: 2022-01-26

  Revised date: 2022-06-14

  Online published: 2022-10-25

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Abstract

A quantitative analysis of runoff variation characteristics is the basis for finding out its impact mechanism, and it is also an important basis for accurately evaluating water resources. This study used eight annual distribution indexes, such as the Gini coefficient and Lorentz asymmetry coefficient, combined with the M-K test、R/S analysis, and other mathematical statistics methods, to comprehensively analyze the process of the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River from the annual and interannual levels. The results showed that the following: (1) during the year, a unimodal distribution was shown, which was mainly concentrated in the flood season concentration degree (D), inhomogeneous coefficient (Cv), Gini coefficient (GI), relative change range (Cm) decreased respectively at the rate of -1.053·(10a)-1, -0.015·(10a)-1, -0.009·(10a)-1,-0.643·(10a)-1, complete adjustment coefficient (Cr), Lorentz asymmetry coefficient (S), concentration period (Cn) all decreased at the rate of -0.006·(10a)-1. The distribution tended to be uniform gradually according to the changing trend of its characteristic index during the year. (2) The annual runoff showed an overall increasing trend, but an abrupt change occurred in 1997, and the average annual runoff afterward increased by 59% compared before the change. (3) The runoff generally showed an upward trend in all four seasons, among which the trend rate was the greatest in the summer and the smallest in the winter. After the abrupt change in the 1990s, the average runoff increased significantly compared to before the abrupt change, and the change range was in the following order: autumn (76%) > winter (74%) > summer (58%) > spring (45%). (4) The annual and seasonal runoff in the upper reaches of the Shule River had multiple time characteristic scale periods, and the first major cycle were both 56 years. (5) According to the predicted runoff from 2022 to 2024, it was found that the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River will continue to increase in the next three years. These results provided a scientific basis for accurately grasping the runoff variation laws and characteristics of the upper reaches of the Shule River and had certain guiding significance for the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in the Shule River Basin and the study of the runoff variation laws in inland river basins.

Key words： runoff seasonal distribution; inter-annual variation; runoff forecast; upper reaches of the Shule River

Cite this article

JIA Ling,ZHANG Baizu,NIU Zuirong,SUN Dongyuan,SUN Kaiyue,WNAG Lujun . Analysis of runoff variation and forecast in the upper reaches of the Shule River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022 , 39(5) : 1588 -1597 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.23

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