基于中国第二次冰川编目数据、国家青藏高原科学数据中心的降水数据和气象站的实测气温数据并结合数字高程模型,利用加入辐射项的分布式度日模型,以已有监测冰川资料为基础获取度日因子,通过优化参数,对祁连山流域尺度1961—2013年的冰川物质平衡变化序列进行重建。结果表明：祁连山的冰川物质平衡变化以1995年为界可以划分为2个阶段。1961—1995年,祁连山冰川物质平衡正负交替变化且变化幅度较小,冰川的消融量和积累量基本持平,平均物质平衡为（0.11±0.13）m w.e.·a^-1;1996—2013年,冰川消融迅速加剧,物质平衡恒为负,平均物质平衡为（-0.54±0.13）m w.e.·a^-1,主要原因是正积温的逐年升高导致冰川消融加剧。1961—2013年祁连山冰川的累积物质平衡为（-12.76±4.24）m w.e.,空间分布上祁连山中段和东段流域的冰川消融速率大于西段的冰川。

Glacier mass balance is the most direct and reliable indicator of climate change. Its dynamic change likely alters the ice storage and runoff of glaciers. Most glaciers in the world have retreated because of global warming, and this phenomenon has been accelerating for the last 20 years. The glacier area in the Qilian Mountains is the “wet island” of the arid and semiarid regions of the Qaidam Basin and the Hexi Corridor. In these parts, the main replenishing areas of water resources are abundant glacier and precipitation resources, which provide abundant and stable water resources for the economic development of these regions. Glacier melt water accounts for 25%-60% of the river runoff in the inland river basins of northwest China. As such, changes in mass balance in the Qilian Mountains should be monitored and estimated to develop scientific and reasonable measures and implementation programs under the influence of cryospheric changes in western China and to establish risk control and policy regulations. In this study, a distributed degree-day model with radiation terms was used to reconstruct the glacial mass balance from 1961 to 2013 at the watershed scale of the Qilian Mountains. Input data included the second glacial catalog data set of China, precipitation data from the National Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Science Data Center, and temperature data from weather stations and digital elevation models. The degree-day factor was obtained from existing monitoring report on glaciers. Changes in the glacier mass balance in the Qilian Mountains could be divided into two stages in 1995. The glacier mass balance exhibited alternate changes between positive and negative values, and such variations were relatively small from 1961 to 1995. The amounts of glacier melting and accumulation were basically the same. Glacier melting intensified rapidly from 1996 to 2013. The mass balance remained negative, and the average mass balance was (-0.54±0.13)m w.e.·a^-1 mainly because the annual increase in the positive accumulated temperature led to the accelerated melting of glaciers. The cumulative mass balance of glaciers in the Qilian Mountains from 1961 to 2013 was (-12.76±4.24)m w.e., the glacier melting rates in the middle and eastern parts of the Qilian Mountains were higher than that in the western part.