利用1961—2019年黄河上游河源区13个气象观测站逐日地面降水和唐乃亥水文站径流量数据,采用统计分析方法分析黄河上游河源区不同量级降水对径流变化的影响,研究表明：（1） 黄河上游河源区1961—2019年降水量变化率为7.57 mm·(10a)^-1。尤其是进入21世纪,黄河上游河源区气候暖湿化加快,降水量呈显著性增加趋势;（2） 1961—2000年黄河上游河源区各地年总降水量、≥5.0 mm、≥10.0 mm、≥25.0 mm的降水量呈微弱增加趋势,而2001—2019年呈显著增加趋势,分别增加5.1%、6.9%、7.4%、15.0%;（3） 1961—2019年黄河上游河源区≥5.0 mm、≥10.0 mm、≥25.0 mm降水贡献率分别为71%、43%、7%,呈增加趋势,2001—2019年比1961—2000年降水量贡献率分别增加了1.5%、1.2%、0.8%;（4） 年降水量与年径流量变化成显著正相关,年总降水量、≥5 mm、≥10 mm和≥25 mm年降水量与年径流量也成显著正相关,是年径流量增加（减少）的主要气候因子。

Daily surface precipitation data from 13 meteorological observation stations in the headwater region of the Yellow River upper reaches from 1961 to 2019 and runoff data from Tangnaihai hydrological station were used to study the influence of different precipitation magnitudes on runoff changes in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. This research showed that: (1) the precipitation change rate in the headwater region of the Yellow River upper reaches from 1961 to 2019 was 7.57 mm·(10a)^-1. Especially in the 21st century, climate warming and humidification in the headwater region of the Yellow River upper reaches have accelerated, and precipitation has shown a significant increase. (2) The annual total precipitation, precipitation more than 5.0 mm, more than 10.0 mm and more than 25.0 mm in the upper reaches of the Yellow River showed a slight increasing trend from 1961 to 2000, while the annual precipitation increased by 5.1%, 6.9%, 7.4% and 15.0% from 2001 to 2019, respectively. (3) From 1961 to 2019, the contribution rates of more than 5.0 mm, more than 10.0 mm and more than 25.0 mm in the upper reaches of the Yellow River were 71%, 43% and 7%, respectively, showing an increasing trend. Compared with 1961-2000, the contribution rates of precipitation from 2001 to 2019 increased by 1.5%, 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. (4) Annual precipitation is significantly positively correlated with annual runoff, annual total precipitation, annual precipitation more than 5 mm, annual precipitation more than 10 mm and annual precipitation more than 25 mm are also significantly positively correlated with annual runoff, which are the main climatic factors for the increase (decrease) of annual runoff.