黄河流域山西段是重要的生态屏障区，明晰生态系统服务权衡/协同强度的时空格局，对生态保护及经济协调发展具有重要意义。本文基于生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估模型（Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs，InVEST）量化生态系统服务供给量和需求量，通过均方根偏差（Root Mean Square Deviation，RMSD）量化生态系统服务权衡强度，利用结构方程模型（Structural Equation Model，SEM）分析权衡强度的驱动因素。结果表明：（1） 2000—2020年产水（Water Yield，WY）和土壤保持服务（Soil Conservation，SC）、产水和固碳服务（Carbon Sequestration，CS）供给权衡强度呈上升趋势，产水和土壤保持服务、产水和固碳服务需求协同强度呈下降趋势。（2） 除产水服务在2020年供给—需求权衡强度大于0，2000—2020年产水、土壤保持和固碳服务的供给—需求权衡强度均小于0。（3） 生态系统服务权衡/协同强度主要受自然因素影响，蒸散发对产水和土壤保持服务、产水和固碳服务供给权衡具有促进作用，对产水服务供给—需求权衡具有抑制作用；草地面积占比对产水和固碳服务供给权衡及产水和土壤保持服务需求协同具有抑制作用，对固碳服务供给—需求权衡具有促进作用；降水对产水和固碳服务需求协同及土壤保持服务供给—需求权衡具有抑制作用，对产水服务供给—需求权衡具有促进作用。（4） 社会经济因素对生态系统服务权衡/协同强度具有次要作用，人口密度对产水和土壤保持服务需求协同具有促进作用，而对产水服务供给—需求权衡及固碳服务供给—需求权衡具有抑制作用。因此，在制定流域综合管理决策时应考虑生态系统服务权衡/协同强度的空间特征和驱动因素的差异性。

This study is based on the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs model, which quantifies the supply and demand of ecosystem services. This model uses root-mean-square deviation to quantify the intensity of tradeoffs in ecosystem services and analyze the driving factors of tradeoff intensity using a structural equation model. Results show that from 2000 to 2020, the tradeoff intensity of water yield (WY) and soil conservation (SC), as well as WY and carbon sequestration (CS) supply, increased. However, the demand coordination intensity of WY and SC services, as well as WY and CS services, decreased. Except for WY services, which had a supply-demand tradeoff intensity greater than 0 in 2020, the supply-demand tradeoff intensity for WY, SC, and CS services was less than zero from 2000 to 2020. The tradeoff and synergy of ecosystem services are primarily influenced by natural factors. Evapotranspiration has a positive effect on the tradeoff between water production and SC services, as well as on the tradeoff between supply and demand for water production and CS services. However, it has a restraining effect on the tradeoff between supply and demand for water production services. The proportion of grassland area has a restraining effect on the tradeoff between water production and CS services, as well as on the synergy between water production and SC service demands. In addition, it has a promoting effect on the supply-demand tradeoff of CS services. Precipitation has a restraining effect on the synergy between water production and CS service demands, as well as on the tradeoff between supply and demand for SC services. However, it has a promoting effect on the tradeoff between supply and demand for water production services. Socioeconomic factors have a secondary effect on the tradeoff and synergy of ecosystem services. Population density has a promoting effect on the synergy between water production and soil conservation service demands, whereas it has a restraining effect on the tradeoff between supply and demand for water production services and CS services. Therefore, when developing comprehensive management decisions for river basins, the spatial characteristics and driving factors that contribute to the tradeoff and synergy of ecosystem services must be considered.