石羊河流域水生态安全影响因子及驱动机制研究
收稿日期: 2022-02-02
修回日期: 2022-06-23
网络出版日期: 2022-10-25
基金资助
甘肃政法大学校级重点项目(GZF2021XZD05);2022年度甘肃省高等学校青年博士基金项目(2022QB-120);2022年度甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目(基于区域水生态安全的“兰白定临”协同发展研究);2021年度甘肃省“双一流”建设科研重点项目(黄河流域生态保护协同治理的法治保障研究);2020年度甘肃省高等学校产业支撑计划项目(2020C-32);甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广计划项目(22GSLK047)
Water ecological security influence factor and driving mechanism research in Shiyang River Basin
Received date: 2022-02-02
Revised date: 2022-06-23
Online published: 2022-10-25
基于W-SENCE-PSR（以水为主线的复合生态系统-压力状态响应）框架模型构建水生态安全评价指标体系,利用2009—2018年石羊河流域相关统计数据,运用模糊系统分析法和BP神经网络模型法,多层面多角度解析石羊河流域的水生态安全驱动机制。结果表明：（1） 当年降水变化、单位面积牲畜头数、生态环境用水量占总用水量比例、雨水利用量、径污比是水生态安全的主要影响因子;（2） 对水生态安全的影响程度排序为：资源子系统≥社会子系统>经济子系统>环境子系统>生态子系统,响应子系统>压力子系统>状态子系统,资源子系统和压力子系统是主要驱动力来源;（3） 2019—2023年,压力子系统和环境子系统将是主要驱动力来源;（4） 近10 a,水生态安全整体状况较差,始终处于Ⅰ级区（较差）和Ⅱ级区（一般）。
戴文渊,郭武,郑志祥,陈亦晨,张芮,许勇 . 石羊河流域水生态安全影响因子及驱动机制研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022 , 39(5) : 1555 -1563 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.20
The water ecological security evaluation index system was constructed based on the complex ecosystem (social-economic-compound ecological system and pressure-state-response model) concept. From 2009 to 2018, the statistical data of Shiyang River Basin were used. The fuzzy system analysis method and BP neural network model were used to analyze the many aspects of the driving mechanism of water ecological security in the Shiyang River Basin. The results showed that the precipitation change, livestock, ratio of ecological environment water consumption per unit area to total water use, rainwater utilization, and diameter fouling were the main influencing factors of water ecological security in the river basin during the study period. From the W-SENCE system view, the current influence degree of water ecological security were ranked as follows: resources subsystem≥social subsystem>economic subsystem>environment subsystem>ecological subsystem; from the PSR system view: response subsystem>pressure subsystem>status subsystem; the resources and pressure subsystems were the main driving force of water ecological security from 2009 to 2018. The pressure and environment subsystems were the main driving force of water ecological security from 2019 to 2023. In the last ten years, water ecological security of the Shiyang River Basin was still in the levelⅠarea (poor) and levelⅡ area (in general). Overall, the situation was poor.
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