2套气象数据在资料缺乏地区的适用性评估——以呼图壁河流域为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.01.10

干旱区研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (1): 94-103.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.01.10

2套气象数据在资料缺乏地区的适用性评估——以呼图壁河流域为例

孙铭悦^1,²(),吕海深^1,²(),朱永华^1,²,林瑜^1,²,张梅洁^1,²

1.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京 210098
2.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京 210098

收稿日期:2021-08-31 修回日期:2021-10-22 出版日期:2022-01-15 发布日期:2022-01-24
通讯作者: 吕海深
作者简介:孙铭悦（1998-）,女,硕士研究生,研究方向为水文水资源. E-mail: sunmy2601@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510504);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41830752);国家自然科学基金重点项目(42071033)

Applicability assessment of two meteorological datasets in areas lacking data with the Hutubi River Basin as an example

SUN Mingyue^1,²(),LYU Haishen^1,²(),ZHU Yonghua^1,²,LIN Yu^1,²,ZHANG Meijie^1,²

1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
2. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China

Received:2021-08-31 Revised:2021-10-22 Online:2022-01-15 Published:2022-01-24
Contact: Haishen LYU

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在无资料地区,降水、气温等观测资料缺乏,影响洪水预报的准确性,进而影响防汛抗旱、水资源规划等工作的开展。因此,研究无资料地区已有降水、气温数据的适用性分析十分必要。应用包含融雪径流模拟的HBV模型,在呼图壁河流域石门水文站以上区域,基于模拟出的融雪洪水径流与实测径流对比,分别对中国地面降水与气温日值0.5°×0.5°格点数据集和气象站观测数据集进行了对比分析及其融雪型径流模拟的适用性分析。结果表明：格点数据驱动下水文模型的融雪径流模拟效果总体优于利用站点观测数据驱动的水文模型。格点数据驱动下水文模型模拟融雪径流的Nash系数在验证期为0.792,站点数据驱动下水文模型模拟融雪径流的Nash系数在验证期为0.433。同时分析了呼图壁河流域融雪洪水的一些特征,并结合驱动数据的不同,分析了模拟融雪径流出现误差的可能原因,为如何提高具有融雪特征的无资料地区融雪型洪水预报准确性提供支撑。

关键词: 降水数据, 无资料地区, 融雪洪水, 径流模拟, 适用性评估, 呼图壁河流域

Abstract:

In ungauged areas, a lack of observational data (e.g., precipitation and temperature data) can affect the accuracy of flood forecasting, which in turn affects the implementation of flood control, drought relief, and water resources planning. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct applicability analysis of existing precipitation and temperature data in ungauged areas. By applying the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model, including a snowmelt runoff simulation, to the area upstream of the Shimen hydrological station in the Hutubi River Basin, and based on a comparison of simulated snowmelt flood runoff and measured runoff, a dataset including gridded daily precipitation and temperature in China and observational data from meteorological stations were analyzed and compared. The applicability of the snowmelt runoff simulation was also analyzed. Results showed that the snowmelt runoff simulation was more effective when used with the hydrological model driven by grid data than with the hydrological model driven by station observation data. The Nash coefficients of the snowmelt runoff from the hydrological model driven by grid data and the hydrological model driven by station observation data were 0.792 and 0.433, respectively, within the verification period. In addition, some characteristics of the snowmelt floods in the Hutubi River Basin were analyzed and the possible causes of errors in the simulated snowmelt runoff were also assessed based on differences in driving data. These results can help improve the accuracy of snowmelt flood forecasts in areas that lack data on snowmelt characteristics.

Key words: precipitation data, ungauged area, snowmelt flood, runoff forecast, applicability assessment, Hutubi River Basin

孙铭悦,吕海深,朱永华,林瑜,张梅洁. 2套气象数据在资料缺乏地区的适用性评估——以呼图壁河流域为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(1): 94-103.

SUN Mingyue,LYU Haishen,ZHU Yonghua,LIN Yu,ZHANG Meijie. Applicability assessment of two meteorological datasets in areas lacking data with the Hutubi River Basin as an example[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(1): 94-103.

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模块	参数	参数含义	参数范围	率定结果	参考文献
融雪与积雪模块	TT	阈值温度/℃	-1.0~2.7	2.40	[25]
融雪与积雪模块	DD	度日因子/(mm·℃^-1·d^-1)	0.5~4.0	0.5	[22]
有效降水与土壤含水量模块	FC	最大土壤持水量/mm	100~450	132.88	[25]
有效降水与土壤含水量模块	β	形状系数	1~5	2.3	[25]
蒸散发模块	PWP	蒸散发达到潜在蒸散发时的土壤水量/mm	90~180	106	[21]
径流响应模块	k₀	地表径流退水系数/d^-1	0.05~0.2	0.0500	[21]
	l₀	阈值水位/mm	2~5	2	[21]
	k₁	壤中流退水系数/d^-1	0.01~0.2	0.0143	[25]
	k₂	基流退水系数/d^-1	0.001~0.1	0.0050	[25]
	k_p	渗透系数/d^-1	0.01~0.05	0.0200	[21]

时期	驱动数据	年份	NSE	MRE/%
率定期	融合数据	2000—2007	0.680	1.63
验证期	站点数据	2008—2011	0.433	14.64
验证期	格点数据	2008—2011	0.792	2.44

2套气象数据在资料缺乏地区的适用性评估——以呼图壁河流域为例

Applicability assessment of two meteorological datasets in areas lacking data with the Hutubi River Basin as an example

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