基于多变量时间序列模型的锡林郭勒草原参考作物蒸散量预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探明各气象因素对锡林郭勒草原的参考作物蒸散量影响及对参考作物蒸散量预测,利用内蒙古锡林郭勒草原的6个国家级地面气象站点获取的气象数据与其计算得到的PM-ET₀进行关联度分析,按照关联系数从大小排序分别建立基于多变量时间序列CAR（Controlled Auto-regressive）的CAR-ET₀模型。结果表明：（1）各气象因子与PM-ET₀关联系数呈现由荒漠草原区-典型草原区-草甸草原区过渡减小的分布,日最低气温、平均气温与PM-ET₀关联度最小,平均日照时数与PM-ET₀关联度最大,为0.7293。（2）处于草甸草原区、荒漠草原区、通过输入日照与气温两因子建立的CAR-ET₀精度较高;典型草原区还需风速为模型第三因子。（3）通过模型预测精度验证,CAR-ET₀模型预测精度总体高于HS-ET₀与PMT-ET₀方法,结合关联度分析可得出对当地参考作物蒸散量有显著影响的气象因子,可为锡林郭勒草原气象监测布设方案、参考作物蒸散量确定与草原生态恢复提供理论依据。

关键词: 参考作物蒸散量, 灰色关联度分析, 多变量时间序列模型, 锡林郭勒草原

Abstract:

This study was performed to explore the influence of various meteorological factors on reference crop evapotranspiration and its prediction in Xilinguole grassland. The correlation between the meteorological data of six national ground meteorological stations in Xilinguole grassland of Inner Mongolia and the calculated PM-ET₀ was analyzed. A multivariate time series controlled autoregressive (CAR) model was used as a basis for establishing a CAR-ET₀ model in accordance with the order of correlation coefficient. Results showed that the correlation coefficient between meteorological factors and PM-ET₀ decreased from a desert steppe area to a typical steppe area and a meadow steppe area. The correlation of daily minimum temperature, average temperature, and PM-ET₀ was the smallest, whereas the correlation between average sunshine hours and PM-ET₀ was the largest, which was 0.7293. In meadow and desert steppes, the accuracy of CAR-ET₀ increased when sunshine and temperature were used as inputs. Wind speed was also required as the third factor of the model in a typical grassland area. The verification of model prediction accuracy revealed that the prediction accuracy of the CAR-ET₀ model was generally higher than that of HS-ET₀ and PMT-ET₀ models. Combined with correlation analysis, the meteorological factors with a significant impact on local reference crop evapotranspiration could be obtained. Thus, this study could provide a theoretical basis for designing a meteorological monitoring layout, determining reference crop evapotranspiration, and conducting ecological restoration in Xilinguole grassland.

Key words: reference crop evapotranspiration, grey correlation analysis, multivariable time series model, Xilingol grassland

冯壮壮,史海滨,苗庆丰,李健男,孙伟,代丽萍. 基于多变量时间序列模型的锡林郭勒草原参考作物蒸散量预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(6): 1650-1658.

FENG Zhuangzhuang,SHI Haibin,MIAO Qingfeng,LI Jiannan,SUN Wei,DAI Liping. Prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration in Xilinguole grassland based on multivariate time series model[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(6): 1650-1658.

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气象站点	生态地理分区	日最高气温/℃	日最低气温/℃	平均相对湿度/%	日照时数/h	平均风速/(m·s^-1)
阿巴嘎旗	典型草原区	9.252	-4.001	55.072	8.142	3.166
东乌珠穆沁	草甸草原区	9.257	-4.213	60.876	8.157	2.852
西乌珠穆	草甸草原区	8.928	-4.194	58.485	7.681	3.334
多伦	典型草原区	10.041	-3.308	59.663	8.038	3.172
二连浩特	荒漠草原区	12.229	-1.623	46.672	8.715	3.850
锡林浩特	典型草原区	10.295	-3.036	55.503	8.132	3.343