不同气候情景下中国沙棘的地理分布及动态变化预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.09.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探究影响中国沙棘分布的主导环境因子，模拟其潜在适生区，以期为中国沙棘的种植、资源保护和开发利用提供理论依据。采用接收者操作特征曲线及其曲线下面积评估MaxEnt模型精度，综合贡献率、置换重要值及刀切法筛选中国沙棘主导环境因子并判定其适生范围，应用MaxEnt模型模拟并预测中国沙棘当前及未来气候条件下的适生区及其动态变化。结果表明：（1）模型精度较高（平均训练AUC=0.953），能够有效模拟中国沙棘的潜在分布。（2）年降水量（325~650 mm）、海拔（1200~3850 m）、最冷季度平均温度（-7.25~1.25 ℃）、最干月份降水量（1~4 mm）是影响中国沙棘分布的主导环境因子。（3）中国沙棘主要集中分布在甘肃、青海、四川、西藏、宁夏、陕西、山西、河南、河北及内蒙古地区，云南和贵州等地也有零星分布；未来气候改变，不仅迫使中国沙棘向西北方向高纬度、高海拔地区以及云贵高原地区扩张，而且使得东南方向低纬度、低海拔分布区明显收缩，但整体分布面积增大。海拔和水热条件是影响中国沙棘分布的主导因素，未来为应对气候变化，应将沙棘产业重心向西北中高海拔地区偏移，并对中国沙棘资源进行合理开发及利用，以实现该资源的可持续发展。

关键词: 最大熵（MaxEnt）模型, 中国沙棘, 主导环境因子, 分布区预测, 适生区变化

Abstract:

Explore the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis and simulate its potential suitable distribution areas, to provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation, conservation, and development of its wild resources. Methods: The working characteristic curve and the area under the curve of the subject were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model. The dominant environmental factors were screened by comprehensive contribution rate and the knife cutting method and their suitable range were determined; The MaxEnt model was applied to simulate and predict the suitable (growth) areas and their dynamic changes under current and future climatic conditions. Results: (1) The model accuracy was high (AUC=0.953), which can effectively simulate the potential distribution of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis. (2) Annual precipitation (325-650 mm), altitude (1200-3850 m), the average temperature during the coldest season (-7.25-1.25 ℃), and precipitation in the driest month (1-4 mm) were the leading environmental factors affecting its distribution. (3) It was mainly concentrated in Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan, Xizang, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia with sporadic occurrences in Yunnan and Guizhou; future climate change will not only force its expansion to the northwest high latitude, high-altitude area, and the Yunnan-Guizhou plateau but also remarkably shrunk the southeast low latitude and low altitude distribution area; the overall distribution area increased. Altitude and hydrothermal conditions were the leading factors affecting the distribution of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis. To cope with future climate change, the focus of its industry should be shifted to the northwest, middle, and high-altitude areas, and the reasonable development and utilization of its resources should be carried out to achieve sustainable development.

Key words: MaxEnt model, Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis, dominant environmental factors, distribution area prediction, changes in suitable habitat.

陈松清, 东红芳, 岳怡锋, 郝媛媛, 刘新, 曹先宇, 马骏. 不同气候情景下中国沙棘的地理分布及动态变化预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(9): 1560-1571.

CHEN Songqing, DONG Hongfang, YUE Yifeng, HAO Yuanyuan, LIU Xin, CAO Xianyu, MA Jun. Geographical distribution and dynamic change prediction of Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis under different climate scenarios[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(9): 1560-1571.

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具体指标	环境因子	时间序列	数据来源
气候	Bio1（年平均气温）		世界气候数据库（Worldclim）
	Bio2（平均气温日较差）
	Bio3（等温性）
	Bio4（气温季节性变动系数）
	Bio5（最热月份最高温度）
	Bio6（最冷月份最低温度）
	Bio7（气温年较差）
	Bio8（最湿季度平均温度）	当前（1970— 2000年）
	Bio9（最干季度平均温度）	未来（2021— 2040年）
	Bio10（最暖季度平均温度）	未来（2041— 2060年）
	Bio11（最冷季度平均温度）
	Bio12（年降水量）
	Bio13（最湿月份降水量）
	Bio14（最干月份降水量）
	Bio15（降水量季节性变化）
	Bio16（最干季度降水量）
	Bio17（最湿季度降水量）
	Bio18（最暖季度降水量）
	Bio19（最冷季度降水量）
地形	Elevation（海拔）	当前（1970— 2000年）	世界气候数据库（Worldclim）
	Slope（坡度）
	Aspect（坡向）
土壤	Soil-type（土壤质地类型）	当前（1971— 1981年）	联合国粮农组织数据库（FaoStat）

环境变量	描述	贡献率/%	置换重要值/%
Bio12	年降水量/mm	25.4	29.6
Elevation	海拔/m	24.7	18.3
Bio11	最冷季度平均温度/℃	22.4	12.3
Bio14	最干月份降水量/mm	17.0	19.2
Bio4	气温季节性变动系数	2.8	9.2
Aspect	坡向/（°）	2.7	1.5
Bio2	平均气温日较差/℃	2.4	6.2
Slope	坡度/（°）	1.7	2.2
Bio15	降水量季节性变化/mm	0.9	1.5

适生等级	预测值	分布面积/10⁴ km²
高适生区	0.48~1.0	41.9
中适生区	0.25~0.48	53.6
低适生区	0.08~0.25	92.6
非适生区	0.00~0.08	770.8

适生区面积变化/%	SSP1-2.6		SSP2-4.5		SSP3-7.0		SSP5-8.5
适生区面积变化/%	2021—2040年	2041—2060年	2021—2040年	2041—2060年	2021—2040年	2041—2060年	2021—2040年	2041—2060年
低适生区	97.1	197.2	198.8	57.3	62.4	167.0	126.7	50.2
中适生区	10.1	79.8	248.7	-84.4	-47.5	-77.7	-21.9	-68.8
高适生区	-98.7	-98.0	14.3	-100.0	-99.8	-100.0	-99.3	-99.9
总适生区	28.7	97.9	171.9	-18.1	-5.1	37.7	34.0	-9.8