中国地表日平均风与日极大风气候特征的对比

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.09.04

干旱区研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (9): 1468-1479.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.09.04

中国地表日平均风与日极大风气候特征的对比

南宇琨¹(), 刘鹏¹(), 王伟²^,³^,⁴, 陈遗志²^,³^,⁴

1.南京信息工程大学，气象灾害教育部重点实验室，气候与环境变化联合国际研究实验室，气象灾害预测与评估协同创新中心，江苏南京 210044
2.国电南瑞科技股份有限公司，江苏南京 211106
3.南瑞集团有限公司（国网电力科学研究院有限公司），江苏南京 211106
4.智能电网保护和运行控制国家重点实验室，江苏南京 211106

收稿日期:2023-07-13 修回日期:2023-10-08 出版日期:2024-09-15 发布日期:2024-09-25
通讯作者: 刘鹏. E-mail: liupeng1998@nuist.edu.cn
作者简介:南宇琨（1998-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事气候变化研究. E-mail: nyk432110@163.com
基金资助:
国家电网公司总部科技项目(5108-202218280A-2-68-XG)

Comparative study on climate characteristics of daily mean wind and daily extreme wind throughout China

NAN Yukun¹(), LIU Peng¹(), WANG Wei²^,³^,⁴, CHEN Yizhi²^,³^,⁴

1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China
2. NARI Technology Co., Ltd., Nanjing 211106, Jiangsu, China
3. NARI Group Corporation (State Grid Electric Power Research Institute), Nanjing 211106, Jiangsu, China
4. State Key Laboratory of Smart Grid Protection and Control, Nanjing 211106, Jiangsu, China

Received:2023-07-13 Revised:2023-10-08 Published:2024-09-15 Online:2024-09-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

据多项研究指出，中国地表平均风速在全球变暖的背景下呈现长期下降的趋势。而极大风速与平均风速特征变化是否一致，值得我们关注。通过对比分析国家基本气象站1951—2018年的地表日平均风速和日极大风速数据，结果表明：全国范围内，日平均风速主要集中在2 m·s^-1左右，而日极大风速主要集中在8 m·s^-1左右，这两种风速在青藏高原地区和内蒙古地区较大。此外，日平均风速出现小风速概率更高，而日极大风速的概率分布更接近于正态分布。从1960—2010年，日平均风速下降了19%，而日极大风速下降更为显著，达到20%。然而，在2010年之后，随着全球变暖的加剧，二者均略有回升，尤其是日平均风速的回升更为显著。这一结论强调了在全球变暖背景下持续关注和研究风速变化的重要性，有助于深入了解中国地表风速的变化特征，同时也为风速预报、风能开发等项目提供科学参考。

关键词: 日平均风, 日极大风, 气候特征, 风速差异

Abstract:

Studies have identified a long-term decline in the mean surface wind speed in China under the background of global warming. However, whether the extreme wind speed is consistent with the mean wind speed is worthy of investigation. Through the comparative analysis of the daily mean wind speed data and daily extreme wind speed data from the national basic weather stations for the years 1951 to 2018, the following conclusions are drawn: Nationwide, the daily mean wind speed is mainly concentrated at approximately 2 m·s^-1 and the daily extreme wind speed is mainly concentrated at approximately 8 m·s^-1; both wind speeds are larger in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Inner Mongolia. In addition, the daily mean wind speed is more likely to be smaller, whereas the probability distribution of daily extreme wind speed is closer to a normal distribution. From 1960 to 2010, the daily mean wind speed decreased by 19%, while the daily extreme wind speed decreased even more significantly, up to 20%. However, after 2010, with the intensification of global warming, both speeds slightly rebounded; in particular, the daily mean wind speed has increased more significantly. These findings emphasize the importance of continuous attention and research into wind speed changes in the context of global warming, which are extremely helpful in comprehending the characteristics of surface wind speed changes in China, as well as providing a scientific reference for wind speed forecasting and wind energy development projects.

Key words: daily mean wind speed, daily extreme wind speed, climatic characteristics, differences in wind speed

南宇琨, 刘鹏, 王伟, 陈遗志. 中国地表日平均风与日极大风气候特征的对比[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(9): 1468-1479.

NAN Yukun, LIU Peng, WANG Wei, CHEN Yizhi. Comparative study on climate characteristics of daily mean wind and daily extreme wind throughout China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(9): 1468-1479.

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阈值百分比	日平均风速 /(m·s^-1)	日极大风速 /(m·s^-1)	日极大风速: 日平均风速
10%	0.9	4.9	5.4
20%	1.2	5.8	4.8
30%	1.5	6.6	4.4
40%	1.8	7.3	4.1
50%	2.1	8.0	3.8
60%	2.4	8.8	3.7
70%	2.8	9.7	3.5
80%	3.3	10.9	3.3
90%	4.1	12.6	3.1

时段	全年	冬季	春季	夏季	秋季
1951—2018年	0.86	0.85	0.86	0.83	0.74
1959—2003年	0.83	0.85	0.86	0.73	0.73
2003—2018年	0.94	0.90	0.74	0.94	0.86

		风速增长率/%
		1960年代	1970年代	1980年代	1990年代	2000年代	2010年代	累计增长率
日平均风	全年	1.0	0.8	-9.9	-6.5	-3.5	1.0	-17.1
	冬季	-0.8	-2.1	-10.7	-7.5	-2.3	2.7	-20.7
	春季	1.2	1.0	-9.7	-7.1	-4.2	-0.4	-19.2
	夏季	1.1	4.6	-9.2	-5.4	-3.3	0.9	-11.3
	秋季	1.4	0.1	-9.9	-5.7	-4.1	1.1	-17.1
日极大风	全年	3.1	-5.3	-0.2	-10.2	-4.3	-0.3	-17.2
	冬季	2.6	-5.7	-0.4	-11.4	-6.7	0.2	-21.4
	春季	1.7	-7.8	-1.4	-9.9	-1.9	1.1	-18.2
	夏季	5.5	-3.7	-0.3	-8.4	-4.9	-1.7	-13.5
	秋季	1.2	-2.8	0.8	-10.4	-6.2	-1.2	-18.6

时段	全国	Ⅰ区	Ⅱ区	Ⅲ区	Ⅳ区
1951—2018年	0.86^**	-	0.70^**	0.88^**	0.48^**
1959—2003年	0.83^**	-	0.62^**	0.55^**	0.52^**
2003—2018年	0.94^**	-	0.84^**	0.96^**	0.53^*

中国地表日平均风与日极大风气候特征的对比

Comparative study on climate characteristics of daily mean wind and daily extreme wind throughout China

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