1994—2018年哈萨克斯坦首都圈植被NPP时空变化特征及驱动因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.06.22

干旱区研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 1917-1929.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.06.22

1994—2018年哈萨克斯坦首都圈植被NPP时空变化特征及驱动因素

陈玉森^1,^2,³(),艾柯代·艾斯凯尔^1,^2,³,王永东^1,^2,³()

1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
3.国家荒漠-绿洲生态建设工程技术研究中心，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
4.哈萨克斯坦赛福林农业技术大学，阿斯塔纳 010000

收稿日期:2022-03-27 修回日期:2022-09-14 出版日期:2022-11-15 发布日期:2023-01-17
通讯作者: 王永东
作者简介:陈玉森（1998-），男，在读硕士研究生，研究方向为荒漠化防治. E-mail: chenyusen20@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）(XDA20030102);中国科学院关键技术人才项目(“一带一路”荒漠化防治技术模式研究)

Characteristics and drivers of the spatial-temporal change of net primary productivity in the capital area of Kazakhstan from 1994 to 2018

CHEN Yusen^1,^2,³(),Akida ASKARL^1,^2,³,WANG Yongdong^1,^2,³(),Talgat ABZHANOV⁴,Dani SARSEKOVA⁴,Zhazira ZHUMABEKOVA⁴

1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. National Desert Technology Research Center for Desert-Oasis Ecological Construction, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
4. Saken Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical University, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan

Received:2022-03-27 Revised:2022-09-14 Online:2022-11-15 Published:2023-01-17
Contact: Yongdong WANG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

厘清气候变化和人类活动对植被净初级生产力（NPP）的影响，对区域生态系统变化与可持续发展具有重要意义。基于CASA模型，利用1994—2018年5期Landsat遥感影像及气象数据，通过仿真情景实验研究了人类活动和气候变化对哈萨克斯坦首都圈植被净生产力的影响。结果表明：（1） 1994—2018年间，哈萨克斯坦首都圈植被NPP呈波动上升趋势，NPP多年均值为226.21 g C·m^-2·a^-1；（2）首都圈人工造林面积不断增加，对NPP有显著的正增益效果（0.38 Tg C·a^-1, P<0.01），而气候变化对NPP影响波动比较大，整体上呈现负增益效果（-0.07 Tg C·a^-1, P=0.34）；在土地覆盖变化和气候变化共同作用下，哈萨克斯坦首都圈植被NPP总体上呈显著正增益效果（0.27 Tg C·a^-1, P<0.1）。相较于气候变化，人类活动对植被净初级生产力影响更加明显，相关性也更强；（3）气候因子中温度、太阳辐射和降水是影响NPP的主要因素。1994—2000年和2006—2012年期间由于温度的升高和降雨量的减少导致NPP损失，分别由218.50 g C·m^-2·a^-1、201.19 g C·m^-2·a^-1降到189.00 g C·m^-2·a^-1、188.48 g C·m^-2·a^-1；2000—2006年和2012—2018年期间随着降水条件的改善，该地区NPP均值显著上升，均值分别达到201.19 g C·m^-2·a^-1、207.73 g C·m^-2·a^-1。本文研究结果有助于揭示气候变化和人类活动对植被NPP的影响机制，可为改善荒漠草原区生态环境质量，缓解全球变暖问题和实现哈萨克斯坦2060年碳中和目标提供参考。

关键词: CASA模型, NPP, 哈萨克斯坦首都圈, PCA分析, 仿真实验设计

Abstract:

Clarifying the impacts of climate change and human activity on plant’s net primary productivity (NPP) is crucial for regional ecosystem transformation and sustainable development. Using a simulated scenario experimental design based on the CASA model, five periods of Landsat remote sensing images, and meteorological data spanning the years 1994 to 2018, this paper determines the effects of two factors, human activities and climate change, on plant’s NPP in the capital area. The results indicate that: (1) During 1994-2018, the multi-year average of NPP in the studied area was 226.21 g C·m^-2·a^-1, with a fluctuating rising trend; (2) The execution of the Green Ring Project led to a large positive gain in NPP owing to an increased plantation area (0.38 Tg C·a^-1, P < 0.01).In contrast, the impact of climate change on NPP is more variable, with an overall loss effect (-0.07 Tg C·a^-1, P = 0.34). Under the combined influence of human activity (land use change) and climate change, the NPP of Kazakhstan’s capital area exhibited a considerable positive gain effect (0.27 Tg C·a^-1, P < 0.1); climate change has a lesser impact on plants’ net primary productivity than human activities. (3) Temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation are the most influential climatic elements on NPP. During 1994-2000 and 2006-2012, increased temperature and reduced precipitation caused NPP loss, which dropped from 218.50 g C·m^-2·a^-1, 201.19 g C·m^-2·a^-1 to 189.00 g C·m^-2·a^-1, 188.48 g C·m^-2·a^-1; With the improvement of precipitation circumstances over 2000-2006 and 2012-2018, the mean value of NPP in this area increased significantly, reaching 201.19 g C·m^-2·a^-1, 207.73 g C·m^-2·a^-1 correspondingly. These research findings assist in elucidating the processes of climate change and human activities on NPP and may also serve as a guide to enhance the ecological quality of the desert-steppe area, alleviate the global warming issues, and serve the carbon neutrality goal of Kazakhstan by 2060.

Key words: CASA model, NPP, Kazakhstan capital circle, PCA, simulation experiment design

陈玉森,艾柯代·艾斯凯尔,王永东. 1994—2018年哈萨克斯坦首都圈植被NPP时空变化特征及驱动因素[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(6): 1917-1929.

CHEN Yusen,Akida ASKARL,WANG Yongdong,Talgat ABZHANOV,Dani SARSEKOVA,Zhazira ZHUMABEKOVA. Characteristics and drivers of the spatial-temporal change of net primary productivity in the capital area of Kazakhstan from 1994 to 2018[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(6): 1917-1929.

图/表 11

图1

表1

不同植被类型最大光能利用率"

编号	植被类型	$ε 模拟值$
1	落叶针叶林	0.485
2	常绿针叶林	0.389
3	落叶阔叶林	0.692
4	常绿阔叶林	0.985
5	针阔混交林	0.475
6	常绿、落叶阔叶混交林	0.768
7	灌丛	0.429
8	草地	0.542
9	耕地	0.542
10	其他	0.542

表1

表2

图2

表3

各土地覆盖类型不同年份NPP值"

年份		防护林/(g C·m^-2)	草地/(g C·m^-2)	水体/(g C·m^-2)	建筑区/(g C·m^-2)	裸地/(g C·m^-2)	地区年均值/总值/(g C·m^-2)
1994	均值	317.11	195.73	150.75	185.65	198.34	218.50
1994	总值	3.78× $107$	1.93× $109$	5.81× $107$	1.16× $107$	1.53× $109$	3.56× $109$
2000	均值	272.27	186.61	187.09	198.66	167.06	202.07
2000	总值	6.81× $107$	2.00× $109$	5.49× $107$	2.82× $107$	1.12× $109$	3.27× $109$
2006	均值	214.10	198.76	125.12	204.67	192.68	216.72
2006	总值	1.15× $108$	1.63× $109$	3.74× $107$	2.77× $107$	1.72× $109$	3.53× $109$
2012	均值	266.13	212.43	191.42	196.88	206.60	235.35
2012	总值	2.31× $108$	1.74× $109$	4.32× $107$	2.86× $107$	1.80× $109$	3.83× $109$
2018	均值	302.81	241.14	189.98	163.86	216.99	258.42
2018	总值	2.94× $108$	2.17× $109$	7.53× $107$	2.32× $107$	1.65× $109$	4.21× $109$

表3

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

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仿真情景	LULC	NDVI	sol	temp	aet	pet
土地覆盖类型和气候变化	△	△	△	△	△	△
土地覆盖类型变化	△	△	○	○	○	○
气候变化	○	○	△	△	△	△

1994—2018年哈萨克斯坦首都圈植被NPP时空变化特征及驱动因素

Characteristics and drivers of the spatial-temporal change of net primary productivity in the capital area of Kazakhstan from 1994 to 2018

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