基于降水量距平百分率的1961—2020年鄂尔多斯气象干旱趋势

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.07.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

鄂尔多斯由于干旱事件频发，严重影响到当地的经济发展。研究鄂尔多斯的干旱时空演变特征对抗旱减灾工作的开展十分必要。本文采用1961—2020年鄂尔多斯85个格点的逐月降水数据，利用游程理论分析了标准化降水指数（Standardized Precipitation Index，SPI）和降水量距平百分率指数（Precipitation Anomaly Percentage，Pa）在该地区的适用性，并进一步采用反距离插值等方法分析干旱时空演变特征，结果表明：（1） Pa指数对鄂尔多斯干旱的描述具有很强的敏感性和准确性。（2）干旱年际变化频率高，夏旱发生频率最高，为16.7%，冬旱发生频率最低，为13.3%，其中，干旱发生率随干旱等级升高而逐渐降低。（3）鄂尔多斯西部比东部更易发生严重干旱，不受旱灾影响的概率逐渐由42%增大为75%。（4）春夏两季的干旱情况对整年的干旱情况影响最大，秋冬两季的干旱形势有所好转，并且冬季好转更明显。

关键词: 格点数据, 干旱特征, 游程理论, 标准化降水指数, 降水量距平百分率

Abstract:

Due to the frequent occurrence of drought events in Ordos, the local economic development has been seriously affected. Therefore, it is necessary to study the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of droughts. This study used the monthly precipitation data of 85 grid points in Ordos from 1961 to 2020. It analyzed the applicability of the Standardized Precipitation Index and Precipitation Anomaly Percentage in the region by using the run theory. It further examined the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of drought by inverse distance interpolation. The conclusions were (1) The Pa index had strong sensitivity and accuracy for drought description. (2) The interannual variation of drought was characterized by high frequency, low intensity, and robust continuity. In terms of seasonal changes, the frequency of summer drought was the highest, reaching 16.7%, and that of winter drought was the lowest, at only 13.3%; the drought incidence gradually decreased with an increase in the drought level. (3) The western part of the study area was more prone to enhanced drought levels than the eastern part. Simultaneously, the probability of being unaffected by drought has gently elevated from 42% to 75%. (4) The drought situation in the spring and summer impacted the annual drought situation the most; the situation in autumn and winter improved, more obviously in winter.

Key words: gridded dataset, drought characteristic, run theory, standardized precipitation index, precipitation anomaly percentage

李烨, 江伟, 陈晓俊, 吴英杰, 王思楠. 基于降水量距平百分率的1961—2020年鄂尔多斯气象干旱趋势[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(7): 1099-1111.

LI Ye, JIANG Wei, CHEN Xiaojun, WU Yingjie, WANG Sinan. Drought trends in Ordos from 1961 to 2020 based on meteorological precipitation anomaly percentage[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(7): 1099-1111.

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年份	干旱发生月份	干旱发生季节	年份	干旱发生月份	干旱发生季节
1961年	3—5	春	1982年	6—8	夏
1962年	3—5，6—8，9—11	春夏秋	1983年	3—5，6—8	春夏
1965年	3—5，6—8	春夏	1985年	6—8	夏
1966年	3—5，6—8	春夏秋	1986年	3—5	春
1968年	3—5	春	1987年	3—5，6—8	春夏
1969年	6—8	夏	1989年	3—5	春
1970年	6—8	夏	1991年	6—8	夏
1971年	6—8	夏	1992年	6—8	夏
1972年	3—5，6—8	春夏	1993年	3—5	春
1973年	3—5	春	1994年	3—5	春
1974年	3—5，6—8	春夏	1995年	3—5	春
1975年	6—8	夏	2000年	3—5	春
1976年	3—5	春	2007年	6—8	夏
1977年	3—5	春	2009年	3—5	春
1979年	3—5	春	2017年	3—5，6—8	春夏
1980年	3—5，6—8，9—11，12—2	四季连旱	2018年	6—8	夏
1981年	3—5	春

	发生次数/次	发生频率/%
春旱	14	42.42
夏旱	10	30.30
春夏	6	18.18
春夏秋	1	3.03
四季连旱	2	6.06

干旱级别	SPI取值范围
无旱	SPI>-0.5
轻旱	-1.0<SPI≤-0.5
中旱	-1.5<SPI≤-1.0
重旱	-2.0<SPI≤-1.5
特旱	SPI≤-2.0

干旱级别	降水量距平百分率/%
干旱级别	月尺度	季尺度	年尺度
无旱	-40<Pa	-25<Pa	-15<Pa
轻旱	-60<Pa≤-40	-50<Pa≤-25	-30<Pa≤-15
中旱	-80<Pa≤-60	-70<Pa≤-50	-40<Pa≤-30
重旱	-95<Pa≤-80	-80<Pa≤-70	-45<Pa≤-40
特旱	Pa≤-95	Pa≤-80	Pa≤-45

干旱年份	干旱程度
干旱年份	实际旱情	SPI₁	SPI₃	SPI₁₂	Pa
1962年	春夏秋连旱	春夏秋连旱	春夏秋连旱	秋冬连旱	春夏秋连旱
1965年	春夏连旱	春夏连旱	春夏连旱	秋冬重旱	春夏连旱
1973年	春旱严重	春季轻旱	春季中旱	春季中旱	春季轻旱
1975年	夏旱严重	夏季轻旱	夏季轻旱	夏季重旱	夏季轻旱
1980年	四季连旱	四季连旱	夏秋冬连旱	夏秋冬连旱	四季连旱
1981年	春旱严重	春季中旱	春季轻旱	春季中旱	春季轻旱
1993年	春旱严重	春季中旱	春季中旱	春季无旱	春季重旱
2000年	春旱严重	春季中旱	春季重旱	春季中旱	春季重旱