基于粮食安全的渭干河流域农业结构调整

干旱区研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 1112-1120.

• 其他 • 上一篇

基于粮食安全的渭干河流域农业结构调整

唐宏^1,2, 杨德刚¹, 木坎热木·乃买提³, 汪菲^1,2, 刘云同⁴

1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐 830011;
2.中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049;
3.新疆维吾尔自治区阿克苏地区沙雅县水利局,新疆沙雅 842200;
4.新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830054

收稿日期:2011-11-21 修回日期:2011-12-23 发布日期:2012-11-19
通讯作者: 杨德刚.E-mail: dgyang@ms.xjb.ac.cn
作者简介:唐宏(1985-),男,四川金堂人,博士生,主要从事水资源利用与区域可持续发展研究.E-mail: tanghongwa@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(40971108);中国博士后科学基金(2012M521392);河南理工大学青年基金(Q2010-59,Q2010-15a);新疆师范大学优秀青年教师科研启动项目(XJNU0704)

Study on Agricultural Structural Adjustment Based on Food Security in the Ogan River Basin

TANG Hong^1,2, YANG De-gang¹, MUKANREM Naimait³, WANG Fei^1,2, LIU Yun-tong⁴

1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China;
2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
3. Kayar County Bureau of Water Resources, Aksu Prefecture, Kayar 842200, Xinjiang, China;
4. College of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang, China

Received:2011-11-21 Revised:2011-12-23 Online:2012-11-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于渭干河流域近30 a耕地利用数据,分析流域耕地资源和耕地压力,探讨耕地利用效益的影响因素,并尝试在保障粮食安全的前提下,探讨流域农业结构调整的合理空间。结果表明:① 近30 a渭干河流域耕地面积总体呈增长趋势,人均耕地趋于下降;流域始终处于耕地盈余,盈余量在波动中有所增加,但各县之间、不同时期的耕地变化与耕地压力情况不一致。② 粮食作物播种面积比例较大的县,人均农业产值和农牧民人均纯收入相对较少,调整农业结构,降低粮作比,有助于增加农业产值,提高农牧民经济收入。③ 在控制流域耕地面积,保障流域粮食安全,满足粮食库存消费比30%的要求下,流域2015年和2020年的粮作比需求预测值低于2009年实际粮作比,农业结构具有一定的调整空间。考虑各县差异,对粮作比预测值进行调整,得出各县合理的粮作比。地区应该加大粮食种植补贴力度,提高流域农民种植粮食作物的积极性。

关键词: 粮食安全, 耕地压力, 赤字/盈余, 农业结构调整, 渭干河流域

Abstract: Based on the data of cultivated land use in the Ogan River Basin in Xinjiang in recent 30 years, in this paper the conditions and pressure of cultivated land resources were researched, and the factors affecting land use benefits were analyzed. On the premise of food security baseline, the reasonable space of agricultural structural adjustment was discussed. The results were as follows: (1) The cultivated land area in the Ogan River Basin trended to be enlarged in recent 30 years, but the per capita cultivated land area trended to be reduced, and the situation was different from different stages and counties. Cultivated land was in surplus in this basin all the time, and the surplus was increased in a fluctuation way; (2) Land use structure affected the benefits of cultivated land to some extent, the higher the proportion of grain-crop sown area was, the lower the per capita agricultural gross output value and annual per capita net income of rural households would be. It was effective for increasing agricultural output to adjust the agricultural structure and reduce the proportion of grain-crop sown area; (3) Considering the control of cultivated land and 30% storage-consumption ratio of grain, it was predicted that the proportion of grain-crop sown area in 2015 and 2020 will be lower than that in 2009, and there will be a certain space to adjust the agricultural structure. Because of the difference among counties, the predicted values were adjusted to be more reasonable. The implementation of grain growing subsidy policy should be strengthened so as to improve the positivity of farmers to grow grain crops.

Key words: food security, pressure of cultivated land, deficit/surplus, agricultural structural adjustment, Ogan River Basin

唐宏, 杨德刚, 木坎热木·乃买提, 汪菲, 刘云同. 基于粮食安全的渭干河流域农业结构调整[J]. 干旱区研究, 2012, 29(6): 1112-1120.

TANG Hong, YANG De-gang, MUKANREM Naimait, WANG Fei, LIU Yun-tong. Study on Agricultural Structural Adjustment Based on Food Security in the Ogan River Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2012, 29(6): 1112-1120.

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基于粮食安全的渭干河流域农业结构调整

Study on Agricultural Structural Adjustment Based on Food Security in the Ogan River Basin

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