基于DPSIR-云模型耦合的水土资源承载力评价——以内蒙古黄河南岸灌区为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.05.06

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 829-839.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.05.06 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250506

基于DPSIR-云模型耦合的水土资源承载力评价——以内蒙古黄河南岸灌区为例

涂逸可¹^,²(), 韩文光³, 张二东³, 李浩³, 任黎¹, 李琼芳¹^,⁴()

1.河海大学水文水资源学院，江苏南京 210098
2.河海大学，水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，江苏南京 210098
3.内蒙古河套灌区水利发展中心，内蒙古巴彦淖尔 015001
4.长江保护与绿色发展研究院，江苏南京 210098

收稿日期:2025-01-14 修回日期:2025-03-30 出版日期:2025-05-15 发布日期:2025-10-22
通讯作者: 李琼芳. E-mail: qfli@hhu.edu.cn
作者简介:涂逸可（2001-），女，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为水文学及水资源. E-mail: tuyike927@163.com
基金资助:
内蒙古自治区“揭榜挂帅”项目(2023JBGS0003);内蒙古自治区水利科技项目(NSK202201)

Evaluation of water and soil resources carrying capacity based on the DPSIR-Cloud Model coupling: A case study of the irrigation area on the south bank of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia

TU Yike¹^,²(), HAN Wenguang³, ZHANG Erdong³, LI Hao³, REN Li¹, LI Qiongfang¹^,⁴()

1. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
3. Inner Mongolia Hetao Irrigation District Water Conservancy Development Center, Bayannur 015001, Inner Mongolia, China
4. Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Green Development, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China

Received:2025-01-14 Revised:2025-03-30 Published:2025-05-15 Online:2025-10-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水土资源承载力分析对合理开发利用水土资源和促进两者协调发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文以内蒙古黄河南岸灌区为研究对象，在DPSIR模型框架下构建包括驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应5个准则层的水土资源承载力指标体系，采用基于组合赋权法的云模型对灌区水土资源承载力进行综合评价，并运用障碍度模型诊断制约该地区水土资源承载力的主要障碍因子。研究发现：（1）组合赋权法优化了指标综合权重计算，使评价结果更科学合理。（2） 2023年内蒙古黄河南岸灌区水土资源承载力处于平衡状态，表征水土系统与社会经济处于动态协调状态。（3）各子系统的影响呈现显著异质性，驱动力子系统障碍度权重占比达33.19%，而响应子系统障碍度权重占比仅为4.43%。（4）水土资源匹配系数是主要制约因素。应重点优化驱动力子系统指标，同时兼顾压力、状态和影响子系统指标的改进。本研究建立的DPSIR-云模型耦合方法为干旱区水土资源承载力评估提供了新的方法论框架，并对持续提高内蒙古黄河南岸灌区水土资源承载力具有参考价值。

关键词: 水土资源承载力, DPSIR模型, 云模型, 黄河南岸灌区

Abstract:

The analysis of water and soil resources carrying capacity (WSRCC) is of significant theoretical and practical importance for the rational development and utilization of resources and promoting their coordinated development. This study focuses on the irrigation area on the south bank of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia, China. Under the DPSIR model framework, a WSRCC evaluation index system was established, comprising five criterion layers: Driving Forces, Pressures, State, Impact, and Response. The WSRCC was comprehensively assessed using the cloud model based on a combination weighting method, and key obstacle factors were identified using an obstacle degree model. The results indicate that: (1) The combination weighting method optimizes the calculation of comprehensive indicator weights, enhancing the scientific accuracy of the evaluation results. (2) In 2023, the WSRCC in the irrigation area remained in a balanced state, reflecting a dynamically coordinated relationship between the water-soil system and socio-economic development. (3) The influence of each subsystem exhibits significant heterogeneity, with the obstacle degree weight of the Driving Force subsystem reaching 33.19%, while that of the Response subsystem is only 4.43%. (4) The water-soil resources matching coefficient is identified as the primary limiting factor. Thus, priority should be given to optimizing indicators within the Driving Force subsystem, while simultaneously improving those in the Pressure, State, and Impact subsystems. The DPSIR-cloud model coupling approach proposed in this study provides a novel methodological framework for WSRCC assessment in arid regions and offers valuable insights for enhancing the sustainable utilization of water and soil resources in the irrigation area on the south bank of the Yellow River.

Key words: water and soil resources carrying capacity, DPSIR model, cloud model, the irrigation area on the south bank of the Yellow River

涂逸可, 韩文光, 张二东, 李浩, 任黎, 李琼芳. 基于DPSIR-云模型耦合的水土资源承载力评价——以内蒙古黄河南岸灌区为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(5): 829-839.

TU Yike, HAN Wenguang, ZHANG Erdong, LI Hao, REN Li, LI Qiongfang. Evaluation of water and soil resources carrying capacity based on the DPSIR-Cloud Model coupling: A case study of the irrigation area on the south bank of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(5): 829-839.

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评价指标	数据性质	数据来源
人均GDP、人口自然增长率、第三产业和农业GDP占比、城镇化率、人口密度等	经济社会数据	《鄂尔多斯市统计年鉴（2023）》
单位耕地面积农用化肥施用量、农作物播种面积、农作物耕种收综合机械化率等	农业生产数据	南岸灌区各县市《国民经济和社会发展统计公报（2023）》
年降水量、人均水资源量、农田灌溉单位面积平均用水量、农田灌溉水有效利用率等	水资源利用数据	《鄂尔多斯市水资源公报（2023）》
万元GDP用水量、人均综合用水量、地下水源供水量占比等	水资源利用数据	《鄂尔多斯市水资源综合利用与保护规划》
水土保持率、水土流失治理率、垦殖率等	生态发展数据	《鄂尔多斯市水土保持公报》

目标层	准则层	指标层	指标代号	单位	指标含义	指标性质
水土资源承载力	驱动力(Driving force)	人均GDP	X1	10⁴元	反映区域经济发展状况的宏观指标	+
		人均水资源量	X2	m³·人^-1	反映区域水资源丰裕与匮乏的状况	+
		农作物播种面积	X3	10⁴hm²	反映区域内农作物播种情况	+
		年降水量	X4	mm	反映研究区自然降水补给的程度	+
		产水模数	X5	10⁴m³·km^-2	反映水资源的动态变化	+
		人口自然增长率	X6	‰	反映人口对区域资源的动态压力	-
	压力(Pressure)	万元GDP用水量	X7	m³·（10⁴元）^-1	反映水资源与经济的协调程度	-
		人均综合用水量	X8	m³	反映居民用水压力	-
		农田单位面积灌溉水量	X9	m³·hm^-2	反映农业用水水平	-
		单位耕地面积农用化肥施用量	X10	t·hm^-2	反映农用化肥使用情况	-
	状态(State)	水土资源匹配系数	X11	10⁴m³·hm^-2	反映水土资源匹配程度	+
		第三产业占比	X12	%	反映区域经济结构的优化程度	+
		地下水源供水量占比	X13	%	反映地下水利用程度	-
		水土保持率	X14	%	反映区域内水土保持总体状况	+
	影响(Impact)	城镇化率	X15	%	反映社会发展水平和人口素质	-
		垦殖率	X16	%	反映耕地情况	+
		农田灌溉水有效利用率	X17	%	反映农业技术水平	+
		单位耕地粮食产出	X18	t·km^-2	反映土地生产水平	+
		农业GDP占比	X19	%	反映农业经济情况	-
	响应(Response)	人口密度	X20	人·km^-2	反映人口密集情况	-
		水土流失治理率	X21	‰	反映区域水土流失治理程度	+
		农村生活污水治理率	X22	%	反映农村生活污水治理水平	+
		农作物耕种收综合机械化率	X23	%	反映农业现代化水平	-

承载力	等级	资源承载特征
承载良好	Ⅰ	区域生态功能完善，水土资源系统处于低压低损状态，水土资源与社会经济发展系统很稳定，处于可持续状态
承载安全	Ⅱ	区域生态功能较完善，水土资源能满足社会经济发展，环境系统完善，抗外界干扰能力强
承载临界	Ⅲ	区域生态功能相对完善，能够较好满足社会经济发展，环境系统稳定
轻微承载	Ⅳ	区域生态功能处于轻微受损状态，水土资源与社会经济平衡发展的状态被破坏，系统不稳定
严重承载	Ⅴ	区域生态环境受到破坏，水土资源承载力已接近饱和，不能满足社会经济发展，环境系统存在缺陷，抗外界干扰能力弱且敏感

指标代号	评价标准
指标代号	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ
X1	>15	[12,15]	[8,12)	[3,8)	<3
X2	>2200	[1700,2200]	[1000,1700)	[500,1000)	<500
X3	>40	[30,40]	[20,30)	[10,20)	<10
X4	>800	[600,800]	[400,600)	[200,400)	<200
X5	>50	[30,50]	[20,30)	[10,20)	<10
X6	<2	[2,4)	[4,5)	[5,6]	>6
X7	<30	[30,80)	[80,140)	[140,220)	>220
X8	<400	[400,550)	[550,700)	[700,950]	>950
X9	<1500	[1500,3000)	[3000,4500)	[4500,6000]	>6000
X10	<0.6	[0.6,1)	[1,1.5)	[1.5,1.95)	>1.95
X11	>1	[0.7,1]	[0.4,0.7)	[0.15,0.4)	<0.15
X12	>60	[50,60)	[40,50)	[30,40)	<30
X13	<15	[15,20)	[20,35)	[35,50)	>50
X14	>80	[70,80)	[55,70)	[30,55)	<30
X15	<40	[40,50)	[50,60)	[60,70]	>70
X16	>50	[41.4,50.0]	[27.7,41.4)	[13.8,27.6)	<13.8
X17	>80	[60,80]	[40,60)	[20,40)	<20
X18	>9	[6,9]	[3.5,6)	[2.5,3.5)	<2.5
X19	<10	[10,20)	[20,30)	[30,40]	>40
X20	<50	[50,100)	[100,200)	[200,300]	>300
X21	>3	[1.5,3]	[1,1.5)	[0.6,1)	<0.6
X22	>45	[35,45]	[30,35)	[20,30)	<20
X23	>95	[90,95]	[80,90)	[60,80)	<60

准则层	指标代号	AHP法权重	熵权法权重	组合赋权法权重	准则层权重
驱动力	X1	0.0294	0.0122	0.0189	0.4455
	X2	0.1164	0.2321	0.1545
	X3	0.0516	0.0182	0.0326
	X4	0.0585	0.1018	0.0699
	X5	0.0516	0.0194	0.0328
	X6	0.0226	0.2289	0.1369
压力	X7	0.0445	0.0035	0.0266	0.2245
	X8	0.0336	0.0005	0.0200
	X9	0.0954	0.0035	0.0568
	X10	0.0119	0.2033	0.1212
状态	X11	0.1355	0.0003	0.0806	0.1537
	X12	0.0677	0.0228	0.0425
	X13	0.0078	0.0069	0.0062
	X14	0.0166	0.0376	0.0244
影响	X15	0.0252	0.0054	0.0153	0.1439
	X16	0.0893	0.0097	0.0535
	X17	0.0767	0.0361	0.0504
	X18	0.0142	0.0039	0.0087
	X19	0.0192	0.0187	0.0159
响应	X20	0.0105	0.0039	0.0066	0.0324
	X21	0.0090	0.0012	0.0054
	X22	0.0069	0.0259	0.0159
	X23	0.0061	0.0042	0.0044

基于DPSIR-云模型耦合的水土资源承载力评价——以内蒙古黄河南岸灌区为例

Evaluation of water and soil resources carrying capacity based on the DPSIR-Cloud Model coupling: A case study of the irrigation area on the south bank of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia

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准则层	评价标准					等级
准则层	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	等级
D（驱动力）	0.1361	0.0269	0.1855	0.0540	0.0543	Ⅲ
P（压力）	0.1337	0.0441	0.0268	0.0154	0.0043	Ⅰ
S（状态）	0.0000	0.0008	0.0158	0.0637	0.0734	Ⅴ
I（影响）	0.0023	0.0148	0.0652	0.0055	0.0533	Ⅲ
R（响应）	0.0004	0.0154	0.0128	0.0034	0.0002	Ⅱ
南岸灌区	0.2725	0.1020	0.3060	0.1420	0.1855	Ⅲ