准噶尔盆地大赖草分布格局及关键因子分析
收稿日期: 2021-09-09
修回日期: 2022-01-05
网络出版日期: 2022-05-30
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(41561007);国家自然科学基金项目(41261011);草原生态修复治理补助项目(XJCYZZ202007)
Distribution pattern and driving mechanisms of the sand plant Leymus racemosus in the Junggar Basin
Received date: 2021-09-09
Revised date: 2022-01-05
Online published: 2022-05-30
模拟、预测新疆准噶尔盆地沙丘禾草大赖草的生态适宜性及其空间分布特征,以及对未来气候变化的可能响应,指导该濒危植物的保护。研究基于大赖草的24个自然分布点和8个环境因子,利用GIS空间分析和MaxEnt模型,分析基准气候（1970—2000年）和社会经济路径SSP2下2050时段（2041—2060年）和2070时段（2081—2100年）大赖草的适宜分布范围及分布格局变化,并利用多元环境相似度面和最不相似变量探究影响大赖草分布的关键气候因子。结果表明：（1） 基准气候下,大赖草的适宜分布面积占新疆总面积的5.57%,主要集中于额尔齐斯河流域附近的低覆盖度草地;（2） 与基准气候相比,2050时段和2070时段大赖草的适生区呈显著减少趋势,占比分别为0.99%和1.33%,适宜生境高度破碎化,适生区的质心向西北方高纬度和高海拔地区迁移;（3） 最干月降水量、降水量季节性变化和温度季节性变化是影响准噶尔盆地大赖草适宜分布的关键气候因子。
张林,张云玲,马松梅,张丹,贺凌云 . 准噶尔盆地大赖草分布格局及关键因子分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022 , 39(3) : 863 -871 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.19
Our objective was to simulate and predict ecological suitability, possible suitable distribution range, spatial distribution characteristics, and possible response to future climate change of Leymus racemosus (Lam.) Tzvelev in Xinjiang. The data in this study were based on 24 natural distribution sites and eight environmental factors of Leymus racemosus and were analyzed using GIS spatial analysis and the MaxEnt model. The suitable distribution range and changes in the distribution pattern of Leymus racemosus in Xinjiang under the present climate (1970-2000), the 2050 period (2041-2060), and the 2070 period (2081-2100) for the “Middle of the Road” narrative (SSP2) of the shared socioeconomic pathways were analyzed. We used multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis and the most dissimilar variable to explore the key climatic factors. Under the present climate, the suitable distribution area of Leymus racemosus accounts for 5.57% of the total area of Xinjiang, mainly concentrated in the low-cover grasslands near the Irtysh River. Compared with the present climate, the suitable habitat of Leymus racemosus will be significantly reduced by 0.99% and 1.33% in 2050 and 2070, respectively; its suitable habitat will be highly fragmented, and the center of its suitable habitat will move to the Northwest at higher latitudes and higher elevations. Factors that mainly influence the suitable distribution of Leymus racemosus in Xinjiang are the precipitation of the driest month, precipitation seasonality (Cv), and the standard deviation of seasonal temperature variation.
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