应用气候

基于MCI的新疆近60 a干旱时空特征分析

展开
  • 1.新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
    2.安徽省气候中心,安徽 合肥 230031
吴秀兰(1988-),女,工程师,硕士,主要研究气象灾害与气候影响评估. E-mail: wuxiulanxj@163.com

收稿日期: 2021-05-11

  修回日期: 2021-07-16

  网络出版日期: 2022-01-24

基金资助

新疆气象干旱监测评估预报技术研究及业务应用(21909007);中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2020009)

Analysis of the temporal-spatial variation characteristics of drought in the Xinjiang based on the meteorological drought comprehensive index

Expand
  • 1. Xinjiang Climate Center, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China
    2. Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, Anhui, China

Received date: 2021-05-11

  Revised date: 2021-07-16

  Online published: 2022-01-24

摘要

利用新疆99个气象站点1961—2020年逐日气象数据,根据最新修订的《气象干旱等级》国标,计算各站点1961—2020年逐日气象干旱综合指数序列(MCI)。利用相关分析、线性趋势、突变检验、EOF等方法,分析了近60 a新疆干旱强度的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1) 新疆MCI监测结果与降水距平百分率、干旱灾情记录具有较好的一致性。(2) 干旱程度在1987年前后发生突变,1988年以来新疆干旱整体偏轻,春、夏、秋各季节干旱程度均呈显著减弱趋势。空间上以天山为界,基本呈现为北疆重于南疆,牧区重于农区。(3) 春季全疆干旱较重,夏季南北疆偏西地区干旱强重,秋季全疆干旱整体较轻。(4) EOF展开的第一模态反映了全区干旱变化的平均状态,第二模态反映出南北疆干旱呈反相位变化的空间分布特征。近60 a新疆干旱强度时空变化整体上存在一致性,局域又存在差异性。

本文引用格式

吴秀兰,段春锋,玛依拉·买买提艾力,张婧莉,张太西 . 基于MCI的新疆近60 a干旱时空特征分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022 , 39(1) : 75 -83 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.01.08

Abstract

According to the national standard of meteorological drought grade revised in 2017, the daily meteorological drought comprehensive index (MCI) of meteorological stations was calculated based on the daily meteorological data of 99 stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020. The temporal and spatial characteristics of drought intensity in Xinjiang over the last 60 years were analyzed using correlation analysis, linear trend analysis, mutation tests, and empirical orthogonal function (EOF). The MCI monitoring results were in good agreement with precipitation anomaly percentages and drought disaster records in Xinjiang. The degree of drought changed abruptly around 1987. From 1988, the degree of drought was generally lower. Furthermore, the degree of drought in spring, summer, and autumn showed a significant weakening trend. Taking Tianshan Mountain as the boundary, northern Xinjiang was drier than southern Xinjiang and the pastoral area was drier than the agricultural area. The drought was severe in spring, it was severe in the west of North and South Xinjiang in summer, but it was generally lighter in autumn. The first mock exam of EOF expansion reflected the average state of drought change in the whole region. The second mode reflected the opposite trend of drought in North and South Xinjiang. In the last 60 years, the spatial and temporal variation of drought intensity in Xinjiang was generally consistent but differed among local areas.

参考文献

[1] 王劲松, 李耀辉, 王润元, 等. 我国气象干旱研究进展评述[J]. 干旱气象, 2012, 30(4): 497-508.
[1] [Wang Jinsong, Li Yaohui, Wang Runyuan, et al. Preliminary analysis on the demand and review of progress in the field of meteorological drought research[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2012, 30(4): 497-508. ]
[2] 张书余. 干旱气象学[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2008: 8-11.
[2] [Zhang Shuyu. Drought Meteorology[M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2008: 8-11. ]
[3] 廖要明, 张存杰. 基于MCI的中国干旱时空分布及灾情变化特征[J]. 气象, 2017, 43(11): 1402-1409.
[3] [Liao Yaoming, Zhang Cunjie. Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and disaster change of drought in China based on meteorological drought composite index[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2017, 43(11): 1402-1409. ]
[4] Vicente-Serrano S M, Gouveia, Camarero J, et al. Response of vegetation to drought time-scales across global land biomes[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013, 110(1): 52-57.
[5] 王有恒, 张存杰, 段居琦, 等. 中国北方春玉米干旱灾害风险评估[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2018, 36(2): 257-264, 272.
[5] [Wang Youheng, Zhang Cunjie, Duan Juqi, et al. Risk assessment of spring maize drought disaster in Northern China[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2018, 36(2): 257-264, 272. ]
[6] 冉津江, 季明霞, 黄建平, 等. 中国北方干旱区和半干旱区近60年气候变化特征及成因分析[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 50(1): 46-53.
[6] [Ran Jinjiang, Ji Mingxia, Huang Jianping, et al. Characteristics and factors of climate change in arid and semi-arid areas over Northern China in the recent 60 years[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences Edition), 2014, 50(1): 46-53. ]
[7] 高瑜莲, 柳锦宝, 柳维扬, 等. 近14 a新疆南疆绿洲地区地表蒸散与干旱的时空变化特征研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42(4): 830-837.
[7] [Gao Yulian, Liu Jinbao, Liu Weiyang, et al. Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of surface evapotranspiration and drought at the oasis area of the southern Xinjiang in recent 14 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(4): 830-837. ]
[8] 黄静, 张运, 汪明秀, 等. 近17年新疆干旱时空分布特征及影响因素[J]. 生态学报, 2020, 40(3): 1077-1088.
[8] [Huang Jing, Zhang Yun, Wang Mingxiu, et al. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought and its relationship with meteorological factors in Xinjiang in last 17 years[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2020, 40(3): 1077-1088. ]
[9] 轩俊伟, 郑江华, 刘志辉. 基于SPEI的新疆干旱时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2016, 33(2): 338-344.
[9] [Xuan Junwei, Zheng Jianghua, Liu Zhihui. SPEI-based spatiotemporal variation of drought in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2016, 33(2): 338-344. ]
[10] 王素萍, 王劲松, 张强, 等. 几种干旱指标对西南和华南区域月尺度干旱监测的适用性评价[J]. 高原气象, 2015, 34(6): 1616-1624.
[10] [Wang Suping, Wang Jinsong, Zhang Qiang, et al. Applicability evaluation of drought indices in monthlyscale drought monitoring in southwestern and southern China[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2015, 34(6): 1616-1624. ]
[11] 杨小利. 西北地区气象干旱监测指数的研究和应用[J]. 气象, 2007, 33(8): 90-96.
[11] [Yang Xiaoli. Research and application of meteorological drought monitoring indexes in Northwest China[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2007, 33(8): 90-96. ]
[12] 李红梅, 李林, 李万志. 气象干旱监测指标在青海高原的适用性分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018, 35(1): 114-121
[12] . [Li Hongmei, Li Lin, Li Wanzhi. Applicability of meteorological drought indices in drought monitoring in the Qinghai Plateau[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2018, 35(1): 114-121. ]
[13] 黄晚华, 杨晓光, 李茂松, 等. 基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58 a演变特征[J]. 农业工程学报, 2010, 26(7): 50-59.
[13] [Huang Wanhua, Yang Xiaoguang, Li Maosong, et al. Evolution characteristics of seasonal drought in the south of China during the past 58 years based on standardized precipitation index[J]. Transactions of the CSAE, 2010, 26(7): 50-59. ]
[14] 王劲松, 任余龙, 宋秀玲. K干旱指数在甘肃省干旱监测业务中的应用[J]. 干旱气象, 2008, 26(4): 75-79.
[14] [Wang Jinsong, Ren Yulong, Song Xiuling. Application of K index for drought monitor operation in Gansu Province[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2008, 26(4): 75-79. ]
[15] 谢五三, 唐为安, 宋阿伟. 多时间尺度SPI在安徽省气象干旱监测中的适用性研究[J]. 气象, 2019, 45(11): 1560-1568.
[15] [Xie Wusan, Tang Wei’an, Song Awei. Applicability study of SPI in multiple time scales in meterological drought monitoring in Anhui Provice[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2019, 45(11): 1560-1568. ]
[16] 胡文峰, 陈玲玲, 姚俊强, 等. 近55年来新疆多时间尺度干旱格局演变特征[J]. 人民珠江, 2019, 40(11): 1-9, 27.
[16] [Hu Wenfeng, Chen Lingling, Yao Junqiang, et al. Evolution characteristics of drought patterns at multiple timescales in Xinjiang for last 55 years[J]. Pearl River, 2019, 40(11): 1-9, 27. ]
[17] 刘晓云, 王劲松, 李耀辉, 等. 基于Copula函数的中国南方干旱风险特征研究[J]. 气象学报, 2015, 73(6): 1080-1091.
[17] [Liu Xiaoyun, Wang Jinsong, Li Yaohui, et al. Characteristtics of drought risk in southern China based on the Copula function[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2015, 73(6): 1080-1091. ]
[18] 江远安, 赵逸舟, 陈颖, 等. 干旱指数CI的确定及其在新疆的应用[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2010, 4(2): 18-20.
[18] [Jiang Yuanan, Zhao Yizhou, Chen Ying, et al. Composite drought index CI and its application in Xinjiang[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2010, 4(2): 18-20. ]
[19] 米红波, 谭桂容, 彭洁, 等. 基于CI指数的湘西自治州干旱变化特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2016, 34(2): 223-233.
[19] [Mi Hongbo, Tan Guirong, Peng Jie, et al. Analysis on drought characteristics in Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture of Hu’nan based on the CI index[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2016, 34(2): 223-233. ]
[20] 曲学斌, 姚振东. 呼伦贝尔市新旧综合气象干旱指数应用对比[J]. 气象科技, 2016, 44(2): 325-330.
[20] [Qu Xuebin, Yao Zhendong. Application of CI and MCI indexes in HuLunbuir[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2016, 44(2): 325-330. ]
[21] 王春学, 张顺谦, 陈文秀, 等. 气象干旱综合指数MCI在四川省的适用性分析及修订[J]. 中国农学通报, 2019, 35(9): 115-121.
[21] [Wang Chunxue, Zhang Shunqian, Chen Wenxiu, et al. Applicability and revision of MCI in Sichuan province[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2019, 35(9): 115-121. ]
[22] 张存杰, 刘海波, 宋艳玲, 等. 气象干旱等级(GB/T 20481-2017)[S]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2017.
[22] [Zhang Cunjie, Liu Haibo, Song Yanling, et al. Greads of Meteorological (GB/T 20481-2017) Drought[S]. Beijing: Standards Press of China, 2017. ]
[23] 张学文, 张家宝. 新疆气象手册[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2006.
[23] [Zhang Xuewen, Zhang Jiabao. Xinjiang Meteorological Manual [M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2006. ]
[24] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 第2版. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.
[24] [Wei Fengying. Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M]. 2nd Ed. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2007. ]
[25] 温克刚. 中国气象灾害大典·新疆卷[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2006.
[25] [Wen Kegang. China Meteorological Disasters Xinjiang Volume[M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2006. ]
[26] 杨莲梅, 李霞, 张广兴. 新疆夏季强降水研究若干进展及问题[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2011, 16(2): 188-198.
[26] [Yang Lianmei, Li Xia, Zhang Guangxing. Some advances and problems in the study of heavy rain in Xinjiang[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2011, 16(2): 188-198. ]
文章导航

/