基于MCI的新疆近60 a干旱时空特征分析
收稿日期: 2021-05-11
修回日期: 2021-07-16
网络出版日期: 2022-01-24
基金资助
新疆气象干旱监测评估预报技术研究及业务应用(21909007);中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2020009)
Analysis of the temporal-spatial variation characteristics of drought in the Xinjiang based on the meteorological drought comprehensive index
Received date: 2021-05-11
Revised date: 2021-07-16
Online published: 2022-01-24
利用新疆99个气象站点1961—2020年逐日气象数据,根据最新修订的《气象干旱等级》国标,计算各站点1961—2020年逐日气象干旱综合指数序列(MCI)。利用相关分析、线性趋势、突变检验、EOF等方法,分析了近60 a新疆干旱强度的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1) 新疆MCI监测结果与降水距平百分率、干旱灾情记录具有较好的一致性。(2) 干旱程度在1987年前后发生突变,1988年以来新疆干旱整体偏轻,春、夏、秋各季节干旱程度均呈显著减弱趋势。空间上以天山为界,基本呈现为北疆重于南疆,牧区重于农区。(3) 春季全疆干旱较重,夏季南北疆偏西地区干旱强重,秋季全疆干旱整体较轻。(4) EOF展开的第一模态反映了全区干旱变化的平均状态,第二模态反映出南北疆干旱呈反相位变化的空间分布特征。近60 a新疆干旱强度时空变化整体上存在一致性,局域又存在差异性。
关键词: 干旱; 气象干旱综合指数(MCI); 时空特征; 新疆
吴秀兰,段春锋,玛依拉·买买提艾力,张婧莉,张太西 . 基于MCI的新疆近60 a干旱时空特征分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022 , 39(1) : 75 -83 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.01.08
According to the national standard of meteorological drought grade revised in 2017, the daily meteorological drought comprehensive index (MCI) of meteorological stations was calculated based on the daily meteorological data of 99 stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020. The temporal and spatial characteristics of drought intensity in Xinjiang over the last 60 years were analyzed using correlation analysis, linear trend analysis, mutation tests, and empirical orthogonal function (EOF). The MCI monitoring results were in good agreement with precipitation anomaly percentages and drought disaster records in Xinjiang. The degree of drought changed abruptly around 1987. From 1988, the degree of drought was generally lower. Furthermore, the degree of drought in spring, summer, and autumn showed a significant weakening trend. Taking Tianshan Mountain as the boundary, northern Xinjiang was drier than southern Xinjiang and the pastoral area was drier than the agricultural area. The drought was severe in spring, it was severe in the west of North and South Xinjiang in summer, but it was generally lighter in autumn. The first mock exam of EOF expansion reflected the average state of drought change in the whole region. The second mode reflected the opposite trend of drought in North and South Xinjiang. In the last 60 years, the spatial and temporal variation of drought intensity in Xinjiang was generally consistent but differed among local areas.
Key words: drought; MCI; temporal and spatial changes; Xinjiang
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