气候变化对中亚高山区水循环影响显著,加剧了区域水资源供需矛盾。认识区域内陆河径流组分特征对于水资源管理具有重要意义。基于塔里木盆地西南部提孜那甫河流域过去60 a（1957—2016年）的气象、径流数据,分析了区域气候变化特征及径流组分的响应。结果表明：（1） 过去60 a来,流域气温及山区降水呈现出明显的上升趋势,自2010年以来区域增温增湿趋势更为明显,这一变化下提孜纳甫河夏、秋季径流呈现显著增长。（2） 径流分割结果显示：冰雪融水、地下水及降水对于年径流的贡献率分别为17%,40%及43%;不同的季节的径流组分差异明显,降水对流域夏季径流的贡献较为显著。作为塔里木盆地西南部典型的内陆河流,未来区域气候变化尤其是降水的变化将会对于提孜纳甫河水资源的可持续利用影响显著。

Climate change has a significant impact on the water cycle in the alpine region of Central Asia, which intensifies the disparity between the supply and demand of regional water resources. Understanding the characteristics of runoff components in regional inland rivers is of great importance for water resource management. Based on meteorological data and runoff data from the Tiznafu River Basin in the southwest of the Tarim Basin from the past 60 years (1957-2016), regional climate change and runoff responses were evaluated in this study. Results showed that the temperature of the whole basin and the precipitation in mountainous areas had an obvious upward trend; moreover, the regional warming and humidification trends had become more pronounced since 2010. Given these changes, the runoff of the Tiznafu River had increased significantly in summer and autumn, although there was no significant change in spring. Using isotope samples, we investigated variation in isotopes in different water sources and analyzed the contribution of different water sources based on isotope hydrograph separation. Melt water, groundwater, and rainfall contributed 17%, 40%, and 43% of the annual stream flow, respectively. There were obvious differences in runoff components in different seasons and the contribution of precipitation to runoff was more substantial in summer. As a typical alpine inland river in the southwest of the Tarim River Basin, regional climate change, especially changes in precipitation, will greatly affect the utilization of the Tizinafu River and its resources in the future.