基于多变量时间序列模型的锡林郭勒草原参考作物蒸散量预测
收稿日期: 2021-03-01
修回日期: 2021-09-01
网络出版日期: 2021-11-29
基金资助
内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2019GG023);国家基金重点项目(51539005)
Prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration in Xilinguole grassland based on multivariate time series model
Received date: 2021-03-01
Revised date: 2021-09-01
Online published: 2021-11-29
为探明各气象因素对锡林郭勒草原的参考作物蒸散量影响及对参考作物蒸散量预测,利用内蒙古锡林郭勒草原的6个国家级地面气象站点获取的气象数据与其计算得到的PM-ET0进行关联度分析,按照关联系数从大小排序分别建立基于多变量时间序列CAR（Controlled Auto-regressive）的CAR-ET0模型。结果表明：（1） 各气象因子与PM-ET0关联系数呈现由荒漠草原区-典型草原区-草甸草原区过渡减小的分布,日最低气温、平均气温与PM-ET0关联度最小,平均日照时数与PM-ET0关联度最大,为0.7293。（2） 处于草甸草原区、荒漠草原区、通过输入日照与气温两因子建立的CAR-ET0精度较高;典型草原区还需风速为模型第三因子。（3） 通过模型预测精度验证,CAR-ET0模型预测精度总体高于HS-ET0与PMT-ET0方法,结合关联度分析可得出对当地参考作物蒸散量有显著影响的气象因子,可为锡林郭勒草原气象监测布设方案、参考作物蒸散量确定与草原生态恢复提供理论依据。
冯壮壮,史海滨,苗庆丰,李健男,孙伟,代丽萍 . 基于多变量时间序列模型的锡林郭勒草原参考作物蒸散量预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021 , 38(6) : 1650 -1658 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.16
This study was performed to explore the influence of various meteorological factors on reference crop evapotranspiration and its prediction in Xilinguole grassland. The correlation between the meteorological data of six national ground meteorological stations in Xilinguole grassland of Inner Mongolia and the calculated PM-ET0 was analyzed. A multivariate time series controlled autoregressive (CAR) model was used as a basis for establishing a CAR-ET0 model in accordance with the order of correlation coefficient. Results showed that the correlation coefficient between meteorological factors and PM-ET0 decreased from a desert steppe area to a typical steppe area and a meadow steppe area. The correlation of daily minimum temperature, average temperature, and PM-ET0 was the smallest, whereas the correlation between average sunshine hours and PM-ET0 was the largest, which was 0.7293. In meadow and desert steppes, the accuracy of CAR-ET0 increased when sunshine and temperature were used as inputs. Wind speed was also required as the third factor of the model in a typical grassland area. The verification of model prediction accuracy revealed that the prediction accuracy of the CAR-ET0 model was generally higher than that of HS-ET0 and PMT-ET0 models. Combined with correlation analysis, the meteorological factors with a significant impact on local reference crop evapotranspiration could be obtained. Thus, this study could provide a theoretical basis for designing a meteorological monitoring layout, determining reference crop evapotranspiration, and conducting ecological restoration in Xilinguole grassland.
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