基于1954—2018年皇甫川流域长时间序列降水量、径流量和输沙量监测数据,运用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验、累积距平法等方法研究了皇甫川流域水沙周期演变特征,应用水文分析法定量评估了降水变化和人类活动对皇甫川流域径流量和输沙量变化的贡献率。研究结果表明：皇甫川流域降水量随时间变化呈不明显减小趋势,而径流量和输沙量随时间变化却呈显著减小趋势,且径流量减少趋势大于输沙量减少趋势。径流量和输沙量均从1986年发生由丰到枯的突变。以1954—1986年为基准期,1987—2018年人类活动对皇甫川流域径流量和输沙量的影响分别为83.04%和75.24%,降水变化对皇甫川流域径流量和输沙量影响分别为16.96%和24.76%。突变年前后输沙量出现明显的下降,产流能力对输沙量变化的贡献率超过了85%。降水变化和人类活动是造成皇甫川流域水沙减少的影响因素,其中流域内逐年增强的人类活动是促使皇甫川流域径流和输沙减少的主要因素,而气候变化引起的降水减少是次要因素。

Based on monitoring data of precipitation, runoff, and sediment discharge in the Huangfuchuan basin during 1954-2018, the characteristics of water and sediment cycle evolution in Huangfuchuan basin were studied using linear trend methods, Mann-Kendall tests, and cumulative anomaly methods. The contribution rates of precipitation change and human activities to runoff and sediment transport change in the Huangfuchuan basin were quantitatively evaluated using hydrological analysis methods. The results show that precipitation does not significantly decrease with time, whereas runoff and sediment transport significantly decrease with time, with a greater decreasing trend in runoff than sediment transport. The abrupt change of runoff and sediment transport from abundant to dry occurred in 1986. Using 1954-1986 as a reference period, the impacts of human activity on runoff and sediment transport in the Huangfuchuan basin from 1987 to 2018 were 83.04% and 75.24%, respectively. The impact of precipitation change on runoff and sediment transport in the Huangfuchuan basin was 16.96% and 24.76%, respectively. Further, reduced runoff capacity contributed more than 85% to changes in sediment transport. Precipitation change and human activities are both important factors influencing reduced runoff and sediment in the Huangfuchuan basin. Increasing human activities in the basin are the main factors reducing runoff and sediment transport in the Huangfuchuan basin, with reduced precipitation caused by climate change as a secondary factor.