巴尔喀什湖流域是跨越中国新疆（境内）和哈萨克斯坦（境外）的重要流域。利用1970s、2005年和2015年3期土地利用/土地覆被（Land Use and Land Cover, LULC）数据与马尔科夫模型等方法,分析1972年流域内最大的水利工程卡普恰盖水库建成和前苏联解体以来流域LULC变化过程和趋势,并对比流域境内外差异,为该地区土地资源管理及生态环境保护提供依据。结果表明：巴尔喀什湖流域LULC变化呈现出耕地和林地面积先减后增（总体增加）、水域和未利用地面积先增后减（总体减少）、草地和城乡建设用地面积持续增加的变化趋势。这表明后期LULC变化对整个研究期LULC变化影响更大。以上变化以双向转换为主,因此,整个研究期内全流域变化过程始终处于平衡状态。境内外LULC类型结构和变化过程均不相同,境内分配比境外均匀,单一类型和区域LULC变化趋势与状态指数均表明境内LULC类型变化过程比境外稳定,但由于境外面积占全流域86%,主导了全流域LULC类型结构和变化过程。全流域在研究期内始终处于平衡状态。

The Balkhash Lake basin is an important transboundary basin spanning China’s Xinjiang region (domestic) and Kazakhstan (overseas). Existing since 1972, the Kapuchagai Reservoir, which is the largest water conservancy project within the Balkhash Lake basin has experienced different stages of ecological change, especially since the collapse of the Soviet Union. This study analyzed three periods in which change occurred and trends in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) starting from the 1970s, 2005 and year 2015, using the Markov model and other methods. Moreover, the differences between internal and external basin characteristics where identified and compared. The results showed that, in the Balkhash Lake basin, LULC changed; both cultivated and wood lands initially showed a decreasing trend between the 1970s and 2005, then an increasing trend afterward (2005-2015). In contrast, the change processes observed in water areas and unused lands showed a completely opposite trend. In addition, grassland and urban land uses maintained a steady increasing trend. This indicates that later changes in LULC had a greater impact on the overall LULC changes throughout the study period. These changes mainly assume a two-way conversion process, so the change process of the whole river basin was always in equilibrium during the study period. The structure and change process of LULC types outside and inside were different: Internal land use types were more evenly distributed than those located externally, and both the single type and regional LULC variation in trends, and the status index indicated that the domestic change process was more stable than that outside the watershed. However, because the external area accounted for 86% of the entire river basin, it dominated the structure and change process of LULC types in the whole area. This study provides a basis for sustainable land resource management and ecological environment protection in the region.