选取汾河流域为研究区,基于2015年、2018年土地利用类型数据,并采用EES模型筛选了对应基准年的20项驱动因子数据,利用FLUS模型,在验证模型精度有效性的基础上,模拟预测了2024年、2030年生产空间优先、生活空间优先、生态空间优先以及三生空间协调4种情景下汾河流域生态空间的时空演化特征及成因。结果表明:(1) 2018—2030年汾河流域生态空间呈现两类演变趋势,在生态空间优先、三生空间协调情景下呈现线性增长,分别增长5.92%、5.13%;生产空间优先、生活空间优先情景下呈现线性下降,分别下降9.40%、2.20%;生产、生活、生态空间用地结构比例维持4:1:5。(2) 时空格局上,生态空间位于流域边缘山区,生产、生活空间位于核心盆地,生态、生产、生活空间整体呈现依次嵌套的格局特征;生态空间核心区变化幅度较小,边缘区变化显著。(3) 2024年、2030年三生空间协调情景、生态空间优先情景下生态空间的演变趋势近似,受流域自然-社会发展趋势及国家政策影响,未来可利用后备土地资源有限,流域生态空间变化较小但也存在胁迫隐患。基于此,本文建议严格遵循“三线”(永久基本农田保护红线、生态保护红线、城镇开发边界线)基本原则,合理规划三生空间后备土地资源,对生态空间边缘区(生态敏感区)积极治理保育,核心区限制开发,促进流域科学发展。

Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of watershed ecological space was conducted for the Fenhe River Basin to provide reference and guidance for the coordinated and sustainable development of watershed production-living-ecological space. An ecological-economic-social model was used with land use type data for 2015 and 2018, and 20 drivers were selected. The accuracy and effectiveness of the future land use simulation model was verified, and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and drivers of ecological change in the Fenhe River Basin were simulated and predicted for 2024 and 2030 under four scenarios: production space priority, living space priority, ecological space priority, and production-living-ecological space coordination. We found that the ecological space of the Fenhe River Basin presented two types of evolution trends from 2018 to 2030. It showed linear growth under the ecological space priority and production-living-ecological space coordination scenarios, with increases of 5.92% and 5.13%, respectively, while there was a linear decrease under the production space priority and living space priority scenarios, with decreases of 9.40% and 2.20%, respectively, and the proportion of production space, living space, and ecological space land structure maintained a ratio of 4:1:5. In the spatiotemporal pattern, the ecological space was located in the marginal mountainous area of the watershed, and the production space and living space were located in the core basin. The ecological space, production space, and living space as a whole present successively nested pattern characteristics. The range of change in the core area of the ecological space was small, and the change in the marginal area was significant. The evolution trend of ecological space under the production-living-ecological space coordination scenario and ecological space priority scenario was similar in 2024 and 2030. Affected by the natural-social development trend of the watershed and national policies, the available reserve land resources are predicted to be limited in the future, and the ecological space change of the watershed is predicted to be small, but there are also hidden threats. Therefore, we suggest strictly following the basic principles of three lines, the permanent basic farmland protection red line, ecological protection red line, and urban development boundary line, reasonably planning the reserve land resources of the production-living-ecological space, actively governing and conserving the ecological space edge areas (ecologically sensitive areas), restricting the development of core areas, and promoting the scientific development of watersheds.