干旱区研究

干旱区研究 >

2020 , Vol. 37 >Issue 2: 282 - 290

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2020.02.07

气候变化

基于SPEI指数的中亚地区干旱时空分布特征

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  • （1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，新疆 乌鲁木齐830011；2. 中国科学院大学，北京100049）
张乐园(1994-)，女，硕士生，主要从事干旱区水资源研究．Email:zhangleyuan17@mails.ucas.ac.cn

收稿日期: 2019-07-15

  修回日期: 2019-09-03

  网络出版日期: 2020-04-21

基金资助

国家青年千人计划项目(Y771071001)

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Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought in Central Asia based on SPEI index

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  • (1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,CAS,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

Received date: 2019-07-15

  Revised date: 2019-09-03

  Online published: 2020-04-21

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摘要

基于1961—2017年CRU（Climatic Research Unit）逐月格点数据，通过标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)的计算分析，探讨过去半个多世纪中亚地区的干旱时空分布及变化特征。结果表明：① 在过去的半个多世纪，伴随温度的升高，中亚多数地区的潜在蒸散发增加，增加速率以咸海流域为中心，呈环形向四周递减；② 1961—2017年中亚地区平均SPEI值整体呈持续下降趋势，但波动较大。年内变化表现为春季和冬季SPEI值呈缓慢下降趋势，夏季和秋季显著下降，表明夏季和秋季干旱趋势加重；③ 空间上，夏季和秋季中亚大部分地区干旱趋势以加重为主，春季普遍呈干旱减轻趋势。本研究结果可为中亚地区干旱风险评估、水资源规划及科学管理提供重要信息。

关键词： 标准化降水蒸散指数; 干旱分析; 时空变化; 中亚地区

本文引用格式

张乐园, 王弋, 陈亚宁 . 基于SPEI指数的中亚地区干旱时空分布特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2020 , 37(2) : 282 -290 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2020.02.07

Abstract

As a core region of the Silk Road,the importance of Central Asia to China is selfevident.With climate change,high dependence on irrigated agriculture,and increasing human disturbance,drought and water resource availability have become a key issue restricting the development and regional stability in Central Asia.This paper focused on five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,and Turkmenistan) to assess the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics using the drought standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI),which was calculated based on monthly Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data from 1961 to 2017.Specifically,the CRU grid point data (including monthly precipitation,temperature,and potential evapotranspiration) were used calculating SPEI to better reflect the climate change in Central Asia in terms of data quality and sequence.SPI and PDSI are widely used as drought indices; however,this study proposed the use of SPEI to analyze the drought condition in Central Asia as it can better reflect the effects of climate change on meteorological drought in arid and semiarid regions.The Thornthwaite formula has generally been used in the initial calculation process of SPEI; however,this only considers temperature in the calculation of potential evapotranspiration,and the calculated values may have large errors in arid and semiarid regions.Therefore,the PenmanMonteith formula was used in this paper to calculate potential evapotranspiration in the five Central Asian countries.In contrast to previous studies that mainly focused on a particular region of Central Asia,this paper calculated the SPEI value of each grid point of the five countries as a whole territory,thereby analyzing the spatial and temporal variation drought trends in Central Asia in detail.The results showed the following:(1) With the increase in temperature over the past half a century,precipitation in most parts of Central Asia showed a slow upward trend and potential evapotranspiration increased.The increase was centered in the Aral Sea basin and declined in a circular direction.(2) From 1961 to 2017,the average SPEI index in Central Asia has continuously declined; however,it greatly fluctuated.Annual changes showed a slow downward trend in SPEI value in spring and winter,and a significant downward trend in summer and autumn,indicating that the drought condition increased in summer and autumn in Central Asia.(3) Spatially,drought in most parts of Central Asia mainly increased in summers and autumns,and generally decreased in springs; in winters,drought at the border of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan increased,and drought decreased in the eastern region.The results calculated using the SPEI drought index in this study were compared with the actual drought events and satisfactory results were obtained,indicating that our analysis and calculation of SPEI can reflect realtime drought situations in Central Asia,both temporally and spatially.Therefore,SPEI can be used as an important reference index of drought in Central Asia and can provide a valuable reference for drought risk assessment and water resources planning in Central Asia.

Key words： SPEI; drought analysis; temporal and spatial variation; Central Asia

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