秦埼瑞, 李雪梅, 陈庆伟, 田亚林 .

基于FLUS模型的天山山区未来土地利用变化预估[J]. 干旱区研究, 2019 , 36(5) : 1270 -1279 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2019.05.25

[1]姜群鸥,邓祥征,柯新利,等.RCPs气候情景下珠江三角洲地区城市用地扩展的预测与模拟[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(12):3 627-3 636.[Jiang Qunou,Deng Xiangzheng,Ke Xinli,et al.Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2014,25(12):3 627-3 636.] [2]Li X,Chen G Z,Liu X P,et al.A new global landuse and landcover change product at a 1 km resolution for 2010 to 2100 based on humanenvironment interactions[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2017,107(5):1 040-1 059. [3]刘甲红,徐露洁,潘骁骏,等.土地利用/土地覆盖变化情景模拟研究进展[J].杭州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,16(5):551-560.[Liu Jiahong,Xu Lujie,Pan Xiaojun,et al.Research progress on landuse and landcover change scenario simulation[J].Journal of Hangzhou Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2017,16(5):551-560.] [4][JP+1]IPCC.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013:1 535.[JP] [5]董思言,高学杰.长期气候变化:IPCC第五次评估报告解读[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):56-59.[Dong Siyan,Gao Xuejie.Longterm climate change:Interpretation of IPCC Fifth Assessment Report[J].Climate Change Research,2014,10(1):56-59.] [6]沈永平,王国亚.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J].冰川冻土,2013,30(5):1 068-1 076.[Shen Yongping,Wang Guoya.Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI Eifth Assessment Report[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(5):1 068-1 076.] [7]徐敏,于庚康,徐经纬,等.不同分辨率下全球气候模式的集合结果检验[J].气象科学,2013,33(2):160-167.[Xu Min,Yu Gengkang,Xu Jingwei,et al.Assessment of global climate models based on different resolution sets of simulation results[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2013,33(2):160-167.] [8]李少英,刘小平,黎夏,等.土地利用变化模拟模型及应用研究进展[J].遥感学报,2017,21(3):329-340.[Li Shaoying,Liu Xiaoping,Li Xia,et al.Simulation model of land use dynamics and application:Progress and prospects[J].Journal of Remote Sensing,21(3):329-340.] [9]Newman G,Hollander J,Lee J,et al.A neighborhoodscaled right sizing strategy based on land use dynamics[J].Journal of Geovisualization and Spatial Studies,2018,2(2):11. [10]Liu X P,Liang X,Li X,et al.A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2017,168:94116. [11]周浩,雷国平,杨雪昕,等.RCPs气候情景下三江平原典型流域耕地动态模拟[J].农业机械学报,2017,48(10):121-132.[Zhou Hao,Lei Guoping,Yang Xuexin,et al.Simulation of cultivated land under RCPs scenarios in typical basin of Sanjiang Plain[J].Transactions of The Chinese Society of Agricultural,2017,48(10):121-132.] [12]张子明,刘平辉,朱寿红.基于FLUS模型的城镇用地增长边界划定研究——以临川区为例[J].江西农业学报,2018,30(5):117-123.[Zhang Ziming,Liu Pinghui,Zhu Shouhong.Delimitation of urban land growth boundary based on FLUS model:A case study of Linchuan district[J].Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi,2018,30(5):117-123.] [13]Li X M,Li L H.Temporal and spatial variation of 10day mean air temperature in Northwestern China[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2015,119(1-2):285-298. [14]Chen Y N,Li W H,Deng H J,et al.Changes in Central Asia’s water tower:Past,present and future [J].Scientific Report,2016,6:35 458. [15]李雪梅,高培,李倩,等.中国天山积雪对气候变化响应的多通径分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(4):303-312.[Li Xuemei,Gao Pei,Li Qian,et al.Mutipaths impact from climate change on snow cover in Tianshan Mountainous area of China[J].Climate Change Research,2016,12(4):303-312.] [16]赵玲.天山山区气候变化及其对草地植被的影响[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2012.[Zhao Ling.Climate Change and Its Impact on Rangeland Vegetation in Tianshan Mountains[D].Urumqi:Xinjiang Agricultural University,2012.] [17]胡汝骥.中国天山自然地理[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2004:154-155.[Hu Ruji.Physical Geography of the Tianshan Mountains in China[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2004:154-155.] [18]成爱芳,冯起,张建恺,等.未来气候情景下气候变化响应过程研究综述[J].地理科学,2015,35(1):84-90.[Cheng Aifang,Feng Qi,Zhang Jiankai,et al.A review of climate change scenario for impacts process study[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(1):84-90.] [19]黎敏,吕海深,欧阳芬.基于Delta方法的淮河流域气候变化预测分析[J].人民长江,2012,43(7):11-14.[Li Min,Lü Haishen,Ouyang Fen.Analysis and prediction of climate change in Huaihe River Basin based on Delta method[J].Yangtze River,2012,43(7):11-14.] [20]李雪梅,李兰海,白磊,等.基于中亚气候数据的开都河流域历史气候资料重建[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(11):1 918-1 930.[Li Xuemei,Li Lanhai,Bai Lei,et al.Reconstruction of climatic data in the Kaidu River basin based on climatic data of Central Asia[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(11):1 918-1 930.]