黑河径流对LUCC和气候变化的敏感性分析
收稿日期: 2017-10-14
修回日期: 2018-01-03
网络出版日期: 2018-07-19
基金资助
国家重点研发计划（2017YFA0604703）和南京信息工程大学人才启动基金项目（2017r091）
Sensitivity of Runoff to LUCC and Climate Change in the Heihe River Basin
Received date: 2017-10-14
Revised date: 2018-01-03
Online published: 2018-07-19
罗开盛，陶福禄 . 黑河径流对LUCC和气候变化的敏感性分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018 , 35(4) : 753 -760 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2018.04.01
The purposes of this study was to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of runoff to climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) in the Heihe River Basin during the period of 1980-2009. The study was based on the multiple data sources including the data of land use, digital elevation, soil, weather and runoff during the study period using the SWAT model. The results indicated that the sensitivity value of runoff to LUCC during the period of 1980-2009 was 0.020 mm·km-2. Moreover, the runoff changes caused by the variation of 1 mm precipitation in the upper, middle and lower streams were 0.49-0.288, 0.006-0.038 and 0-0.002 mm, and those caused by the variation of 1℃ temperature in the upper, middle and lower streams were 13.413-78.902, 1.105-6.500 and 0.461-2.710 mm, respectively. It was further found that the sensitivity of runoff to temperature was much higher than that to precipitation. The sensitivities of runoff to LUCC in the upper, middle and lower streams were 0.108, 0.004 and 0.001 mm·km-2 during the period from 1980 to 2009. Temporally, the sensitivity of runoff to LUCC in the whole drainage basin was holistically in a downward trend, and it was in a decrease trend in the upper stream but an increase trend in the lower reaches. The sensitivity of runoff to temperature in the drainage basin was in an increase trend during the period of 1980-2009.
Key words： runoff; climate change; land use/cover change; sensitivity; SWAT model; Heihe River
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