干旱区研究

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2025 , Vol. 42 >Issue 6: 1080 - 1092

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2025.06.11

生态与环境

基于PLUS-InVEST模型的三江源土地利用变化动态模拟与生境质量

  • 刘小明 ,
  • 郑世妍 ,
  • 乔占明
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  • 1.青海理工学院工学院，青海 西宁 810000
    2.青海大学地质工程学院，青海 西宁 810000
    3.青海省自然资源综合调查监测院，青海 西宁 810000
刘小明（1986-），男，副教授，研究方向为遥感与土地利用覆被变化、自然资源和生态环境评价. E-mail: xmliu@qhit.edu.cn
郑世妍. E-mail: cheyannezheng@163.com

收稿日期: 2024-10-29

  修回日期: 2024-12-16

  网络出版日期: 2025-06-11

基金资助

青海理工学院（博士/硕士）论文延伸科研培育计划(202301lwys021);青海理工学院“昆仑英才”人才引进科研项目(W2023-QLGKLYCZX-034)

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Dynamic simulation of land use change and habitat quality in the Three River Source Region based on the PLUS-InVEST models

  • LIU Xiaoming ,
  • ZHENG Shiyan ,
  • QIAO Zhanming
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  • 1. Engineer School, Qinghai Institute of Technology, Xining 810000, Qinghai, China
    2. School of Geological Engineering, Qinghai University, Xining 810000, Qinghai, China
    3. Qinghai Provincial Natural Resources Survey and Monitoring Institute, Xining 810000, Qinghai, China

Received date: 2024-10-29

  Revised date: 2024-12-16

  Online published: 2025-06-11

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摘要

当前生物多样性减少，对生态系统服务产生不利影响，探究三江源土地利用和生境质量时空演变特征对区域内生态保护修复具有重要意义。本研究基于PLUS模型和InVEST模型生境质量模块，多情景模拟预测土地利用变化和估算生境质量。 结果表明：（1） 历史时期内，草地向未利用地转移面积为9663.53 km2，转移面积占比最大，未利用地向草地转移面积仅为3659.27 km2，三江源地区草地向未利用地退化现象比较严重。（2） 2030年土地利用与生境质量多情景预测结果显示，均是生物多样性保护优于草地保护优于水资源保护优于自然发展情景。（3） 未利用地向草地转移对提高生境质量的贡献率最高为0.7167，其次是未利用地向水域转移贡献率为0.2603。推进生物多样性保护策略，解决草畜矛盾并加大对未利用地的治理，减少草地向未利用地的转移，有利于减缓生境质量降低。

关键词： 三江源; 土地利用变化; 生境质量; InVEST模型; PLUS模型

本文引用格式

刘小明 , 郑世妍 , 乔占明 . 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的三江源土地利用变化动态模拟与生境质量[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025 , 42(6) : 1080 -1092 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.06.11

Abstract

The ongoing decline in biodiversity adversely effects ecosystem services. Investigating spatiotemporal changes in land use and habitat quality in the Three River Source Region is crucial for ecological protection and restoration. This study, based on the PLUS model and the InVEST model’s habitat quality module, conducts multi-scenario simulations to predict land use changes and estimate habitat quality. The results are as follows: (1) During the historical period, 9663.53 km2 of grassland converted to unused land, represented the largest proportion of total land conversion, whereas unused land converted to grassland only covered 3659.27 km2, the grassland degraded into unused land to a relatively serious extent in the Three River Source Region. (2) Multi-scenario predictions for 2030 reveal that the biodiversity conservation scenario performs best, followed by the grassland protection scenario, then the water resources protection scenario, and finally the natural development scenario. (3) Among conversion types, the contribution rate of converting unused land to grassland in enhancing habitat quality is highest at 0.7167, followed by that of converting unused land to water bodies, at 0.2603. Implementing biodiversity protection strategies, resolving the grass-livestock conflict, and enhancing management of unused land, while reducing grassland-to-unused land conversion will help mitigate the decline in habitat quality.

Key words： Three River Source Region; land use change; habitat quality; InVEST model; PLUS model

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